Microsoft in danger
This page describes the organizational forces that limit change.  It explains how to overcome them when necessary. 

Power& tradition holding back progress
This page uses an example to illustrate how:
  • A business can gain focus from targeting key customers,
  • Business planning activities performed by the whole organization can build awareness, empowerment and coherence. 
  • A program approach can ensure strategic alignment. 
Be responsive to market dynamics
This page uses the example of HP's printer organization freeing itself from its organizational constraints to sell a printer targeted at the IBM pc user. 
The constraints are described. 
The techniques to overcome them are implied. 
Overcome reactionaries
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Microsoft in danger

This page describes the consequences of the asymmetries caused by business model differences between Apple, Google and Microsoft.  This presents a highly visible demonstration of the effects of
This page describes the consequences of the asymmetries caused by genotypic traits creating a phenotypic signal in males and selection activity in the female - sexual selection.   
The impact of this asymmetry is to create a powerful alternative to natural selection with sexual selection's leverage of positive returns.  The mechanisms are described. 
sexual selection
This page reviews Christensen's disruption of a complex adaptive system (CAS).  The mechanism is discussed with examples from biology and business. 

The surprising success of the iPhone undermined well developed strategies that had previously been considered successful.  Google's response to the classical Apple strategies is described.  The subsequent disruptive effects on Microsoft's business model are reviewed. 
Microsoft has cancelled, as of July 2010, its newly released Kin One and Kin Two phones after disappointing sales and channel response. 

Notable for its huge profit streams and persistence in targeted markets the actions make sense because of an asymmetric attack from Apple and Google that Microsoft, and other participants in the smart phone market, are struggling to handle. 

The new phones included a strategy of importing the niche phone system provider Danger into Microsoft. 

Microsoft is a tough place for Danger to exist.  Danger highlights weaknesses in Microsoft's multi-pronged approach to the mobile phone market.  Raiding Danger for experienced staff (
Plans are interpreted and implemented by agents.  This page discusses the properties of agents in a complex adaptive system (CAS). 
It then presents examples of agents in different CAS.  The examples include a computer program where modeling and actions are performed by software agents.  These software agents are aggregates. 
The participation of agents in flows is introduced and some implications of this are outlined. 
) and pushing its customers to Microsoft's major mobile platform are
This page discusses the benefits of constraining the flows in a complex adaptive system (CAS) until you are ready to act. 
typical responses
.  Microsoft's core strength, operating system control in the various pc markets, ensures that powerful companies, such as phone network operators is responsible for the operation of a wide area physical network.  The network may be wireless or wire line.  It typically has subscribers who pay to send voice or data packets over the network.   would be wary of becoming dependent partners with Danger.  There is also little benefit in doing so - yet. 

First, Apple with the iPhone, and then Google, with Android and its partners, have created phones that are attractive to consumers and application developers. 

Google's success is notable since Android was developed by members of the team that was working at Danger. 

The approach that Android takes in competing with Apple's iPhone is remarkably similar to the way IBM, and Microsoft, designed the PC is personal computer
as a partner driven application platform is agent generated infrastructure that supports emergence of an entity through: leverage of an abundant energy source, reusable resources; attracting a phenotypically aligned network of agents. 
and positive return, W. Brian Arthur's conception of how high tech products have positive economic feedback as they deploy.  Classical products such as foods have negative returns to scale since they take increasing amounts of land, and distribution infrastructure to support getting them to market.  High tech products typically become easier to produce or gain from platform and network effects of being connected together overcoming the negative effects of scale. 
business model to compete powerfully with Apple's Apple 2.  This approach encourages partners to build hardware and application software to cover the many niches that consumers want filled at progressively lower cost.  Microsoft is an old hand at performing this trick in the pc market.  However, a phone requires a different infrastructure for the
This page discusses the effect of the network on the agents participating in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  Small world and scale free networks are considered. 
of partners to leverage. 

Only once Apple had released the iPhone did it become clear what the core infrastructure should be.  While developing the iPhone, Apple could and did iterate around what the product should be using its integrated business strategy to allow it to nimbly create, and deploy its early prototypes and respond to the feedback from the visionary early adopters.  By all account Steve Jobs was an innovative entrepreneur who integrated art and culture with engineering, and is responsible for: the strong sexual selection force of the: Macintosh, iPod, iPad and iPhone; and their dedicated fan base.  He helped John Lasseter and Ed Catmull turn Pixar into a digital animation powerhouse and became Disney's largest shareholder when he and Robert Iger integrated Disney and Pixar.  He cofounded Apple Computer with Steve Wozniak where Wozniak designed a particularly simple microprocessor based computer, the Apple 1 and Jobs made it elegant.  Struck by the relative simplicity and ease of use of PARC's Alto, Jobs and Wozniak began building the Lisa.  But Jobs decided it was flawed and took a small group aside to build the Macintosh which the whole team were happy to sign their names on the inside.  Born February 24th 1955, Steve's birth mother Joanne Schieble was forced by her father to have the boy adopted rather than allow her to marry his Muslim Syrian birth father, Abdulfattah Jandali, the last of nine children of a hugely wealthy trader, Walter Isaacson explains.  The baby was adopted by Paul Reinhold Jobs, a highly practical mechanic and a mild kind father, and Clara Hagopian, also sweet-humored, and when Steve was two they adopted Patty.  The Jobs lived in an Eichler (a design inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright), in Mountain View, California, which had a strong influence on Steve, as he explained to Isaacson, "Eichler did a great thing.  His houses were smart and cheap and good.  They brought clean design and simple taste to lower income people.  They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors.  You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids."  Steve Jobs knew early on that he was adopted, which pained him supporting development of his Challenger personality type.  It was also clear to Steve that he was unlike his adopted parents, Paul and Clara Jobs, who stressed to him that they picked him specifically and that he was special.  They tolerated Steve's high risk activities and ensured he was safe when problems occurred.  Paul Jobs impressed Steve as a child, with his valuing quality workmanship, and his practical capabilities.  Paul could repair any car and Steve became interested in the electronics aspects.  He was helped by neighbors who were electrical engineers: Larry Lang; the geographic cluster that formed around Hewlett Packard and Intel.  And he then joined a neighborhood electronics club where he was introduced to Steve Wozniak.  But the young Steve Jobs was shocked when he discovered his father did not correctly understand some aspects of the world, and Steve realized he was much more intelligent than his parents Paul and Clara.  With their support he followed his curiosity and resisted any attempt to stop him.  His powerful drive made his parents, teachers, local business leaders: Bill Hewlett, Nolan Bushnell; and coaches go along.  At Reed College he pushed to attend courses he was interested in: calligraphy; rather than follow the syllabus, and they let him.  They even allowed him to continue when he stopped his parents from paying more tuition.  His stressed individualist continually sought out gurus: Shunryu Suzuki, Neem Karoli Baba; and visionaries who might help Steve understand who he really was.  Jobs became ill with pancreatic cancer which metastasized to his liver.  He died on October 5th 2011 and was buried in Palo Alto, California, after a small funeral. 
was the key adopter who rejected the initial offerings out of hand! 

Apple's research organization must ensure that the designs of the separate tool chains that must integrate to create a smart phone from a computer platform, phone chip, GPS is global positioning system, a satellite based navigation system.  It uses relativity's influence on distant clocks and Doppler shifts to construct an accurate 3D positioning grid, generated from space and allowing entities on earth to determine their position within the grid. 
and operating system, are consistent. 

Apple's research, development and manufacturing organizations must
This page reviews the strategy of architecting an end-to-end solution in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  The mechanism and its costs and benefits are discussed. 
ensure that the designs can be developed and manufactured

Steven Johnson suggests that Apple ensures that the leading engineers from the feature and functional areas cooperate on the integration and resolution of problems and inconsistencies.  He writes '.. Apple's development cycle looks more like a
This page discusses the program strategy in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  Programs enable executive leadership to undermine counterproductive extended phenotypic alignment within functions.  Programs generate coherent end-to-end activity.  The mechanism is reviewed. 
than an assembly line.  (p124)'  Steve Job's position as founder and forceful chief executive can also place limits on the
Peter Turchin describes how major pre-industrial empires developed due to effects of geographic boundaries constraining the empires and their neighbors' interactions.  Turchin shows how the asymmetries of breeding rates and resource growth rates results in dynamic cycles within cycles.  After the summary of Turchin's book complex adaptive system (CAS) theory is used to augment Turchins findings. 
tendency of the most successful groups to force forward their viewpoint

Once Apple had clarified the vision with the successful release of the iPhone some other company should be able to re-create the vision using a partner network based solution strategy.  That business model should once again be able to offer lower cost products over
Carlo Rovelli resolves the paradox of time. 
Rovelli initially explains that low level physics does not include time:
  • A present that is common throughout the universe does not exist
  • Events are only partially ordered.  The present is localized
  • The difference between past and future is not foundational.  It occurs because of state that through our blurring appears particular to us
  • Time passes at different speeds dependent on where we are and how fast we travel
  • Time's rhythms are due to the gravitational field
  • Our quantized physics shows neither space nor time, just processes transforming physical variables. 
  • Fundamentally there is no time.  The basic equations evolve together with events, not things 
Then he explains how in a physical world without time its perception can emerge:
  • Our familiar time emerges
    • Our interaction with the world is partial, blurred, quantum indeterminate
    • The ignorance determines the existence of thermal time and entropy that quantifies our uncertainty
    • Directionality of time is real but perspectival.  The entropy of the world in relation to us increases with our thermal time.  The growth of entropy distinguishes past from future: resulting in traces and memories
    • Each human is a unified being because: we reflect the world, we formed an image of a unified entity by interacting with our kind, and because of the perspective of memory
    • The variable time: is one of the variables of the gravitational field.  With our scale we don't register quantum fluctuations, making space-time appear determined.  At our speed we don't perceive differences in time of different clocks, so we experience a single time: universal, uniform, ordered; which is helpful to our decisions

This page reviews Christensen's disruption of a complex adaptive system (CAS).  The mechanism is discussed with examples from biology and business. 
Apple.  Microsoft could have done this if the core revenue generator in the network would include the OS.  However, Apple had ensured that its revenue was based on the integrated iPhone product, and appstore.  Indeed any OS was of little value unless it enabled the features that Apple's vision demanded.  Microsoft and its application partners would have to transform their current offerings and network to respond, and Microsoft would have to cope with limiting the price of any new OS while it provided little value.  

While Microsoft struggled with these challenges and consequently appeared slow and out of touch Google could use its cash position and lack of conflicts with the phone business (it obtains its revenues from Internet search advertising) to ensure that a competitive partner Eco-system did appear to the iPhone and the OS could be open source.  Open source is attractive to Google since it
  • allows the rapid development of required niche market features, and quality as developers focus on their own needs and update the software appropriately. 
  • It makes Microsoft's phone problem structural since the 'free OS' is an asymmetric attack on Microsoft's core OS business model. 
The opportunities for advantage to Apple and Google/partners stimulate responses that result in an
This page reviews the strategy of setting up an arms race.  At its core this strategy depends on being able to alter, or take advantage of an alteration in, the genome or equivalent.  The situation is illustrated with examples from biology, high tech and politics. 
amplifying evolutionary arms race
, typically leaving Microsoft falling further behind. 
Market Centric Workshops
The Physics - Politics, Economics & Evolutionary Psychology
Politics, Economics & Evolutionary Psychology

Business Physics
Nature and nurture drive the business eco-system
Human nature
Emerging structure and dynamic forces of adaptation

integrating quality appropriate for each market
This page looks at schematic structures and their uses.  It discusses a number of examples:
  • Schematic ideas are recombined in creativity. 
  • Similarly designers take ideas and rules about materials and components and combine them. 
  • Schematic Recipes help to standardize operations. 
  • Modular components are combined into strategies for use in business plans and business models. 

As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan. 

Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals. 
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings. 
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples. 
| Design |
This page uses an example to illustrate how:
  • A business can gain focus from targeting key customers,
  • Business planning activities performed by the whole organization can build awareness, empowerment and coherence. 
  • A program approach can ensure strategic alignment. 
Program Management
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