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Britain's Leap in the Dark

Summary
Roger Cohen's New York Times opinion about the implications of BREXIT is summarized.  His ideas are then framed by complex adaptive system (
This page introduces the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory frame.  The theory is positioned relative to the natural sciences.  It catalogs the laws and strategies which underpin the operation of systems that are based on the interaction of emergent agents. 
John Holland's framework for representing complexity is outlined.  Links to other key aspects of CAS theory discussed at the site are presented. 
CAS
) theory and reviewed. 


Britain's Leap in the Dark
In Roger Cohen's New York Times Opinion piece titled" Britain's Leap in the Dark" he argues that the vote by 52 percent of the UK is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. 
to leave the EU is European Union. 
was primarily a kick in the teeth to the political, financial and business establishment.  It occurred in spite of, or probably because of the warnings of dire consequences from:
  1. President Obama,
  2. Britain's political leaders, 
  3. IMF is the International Monetary Fund developed as part of the Bretton Woods agreements to provide liquidity to national gold denominated reserve banks at times of stress in the global financial network - a shortage of a particular currency which was inhibiting trade; in support of a broader Bretton Woods framework designed so as to ensure that currencies did not become misaligned with one another, and were a fair representation of what things were worth.  The IMF removed the need for nations to depend on private loans from commercial banks, such as Britain's dependence on J. P. Morgan during the 1920s and 30s.  The agreement required each Bretton Woods signatory to provide a capital investment or 'quota' into the fund which would subsequently correspond to the amount that the country could borrow from the fund in times of financial stress.  The top four countries and their quotas were set by IMF architect, Harry Dexter White, to match FDR's priorities:
    1. US - $2.9 billion, an amount the FDR administration could transfer from Exchange Stabilization Fund without any need to ask for Congress for funds. 
    2. UK - $1.45 billion
    3. USSR - slightly less than UK quota
    4. China - less than USSR. 


Cohen sees broadly felt resentment rooted in the effects of global capitalism, experts and political correctness.  Such as:

Cohen asserts that from 1950 European integration has supported peace in Europe and global political order. 

Cohen sees Britain's EU is European Union. 
exit (BREXIT) as initiating reversal of this integration process.  Celebration of the BREXIT by nationalist leaders illuminates the point.  He sees the result energizing the backers of Donald Trump. 

Cohen notes the cavalier attitude of: The voters, Prime Minister Cameron who offered the referendum to: De-rail his party's internal squabbles, Undermine the force of UKIP; and Boris Johnson his likely replacement.  The 52% of voters appear motivated by a fear of immigration from Eastern Europe and frustration with their place in the global economic and social order.  These voters were from rural areas of England and its old industrial areas that suffer from under-investment. 

Cohen argues that BREXIT is likely to lead to:

Cohen is concerned that the terrible effects of the two World Wars are now distant memories and so the value of German and French politicians working together is less obvious to Europeans. 

Cohen sees the EU is European Union. 
as the best alternative of the various terrible options that have been tried to date. 

This page introduces the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory frame.  The theory is positioned relative to the natural sciences.  It catalogs the laws and strategies which underpin the operation of systems that are based on the interaction of emergent agents. 
John Holland's framework for representing complexity is outlined.  Links to other key aspects of CAS theory discussed at the site are presented. 
CAS theory
can frame the BREXIT as an impact to the global economic complex adaptive system (
This page introduces the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory frame.  The theory is positioned relative to the natural sciences.  It catalogs the laws and strategies which underpin the operation of systems that are based on the interaction of emergent agents. 
John Holland's framework for representing complexity is outlined.  Links to other key aspects of CAS theory discussed at the site are presented. 
CAS
).  It suggests:
Cohen's opinion piece highlights the global elite's fears of the BREXIT.  But the powerful constraints exerted by the global (US centered) network will limit the impact of the changes.  It might be hoped that Britain was executing a barrier based strategy to free new creative activities as the Japanese and Germans did in the 1950s.  But Cohen implies BREXIT was leadership induced debacle rather than clever strategy. 
























































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