Improving wellbeing
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Improving wellbeing

Summary
Deaton describes the wellbeing is described by Angus Deaton as all the things that are good for a person:
  • Material wellbeing includes income and wealth and its measures: GDP, personal income and consumption.  It can be traded for goods and services which recapture time.  Material wellbeing depends on investments in:
    • Infrastructure
      • Physical
      • Property rights, contracts and dispute resolution
    • People and their education
    • Capturing of basic knowledge via science.  
    • Engineering to turn science into goods and services and then continuously improve them. 
  • Physical and psychological wellbeing are represented by health and happiness; and education and the ability to participate in civil society through democracy and the rule of law.  Life expectancy as a measure of population health, highly weights reductions in child mortality. 
of people around the world today.  He explains the powerful benefit of public health strategies and the effect of growth in material wellbeing but also the corrosive effects of aid

Following our summary of Deaton's arguments RSS is Rob's Strategy Studio comments from the perspective of complex adaptive system (
This page introduces the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory frame.  The theory is positioned relative to the natural sciences.  It catalogs the laws and strategies which underpin the operation of systems that are based on the interaction of emergent agents. 
John Holland's framework for representing complexity is outlined.  Links to other key aspects of CAS theory discussed at the site are presented. 
CAS
) theory.  The situation he describes is complex including powerful amplifiers, alignment and incentives that overlap broadly with other RSS summaries of adaptations in evolutionary biology is a trait that increased the number of surviving offspring in an organism's ancestral lineage.  In Deacon's conception of evolution an adaptation is the realization of a set of constraints on candidate mechanisms, and so long as these constraints are maintained, other features are arbitrary. 
of: The biosphere, Politics, Economics, Philosophy and Health care. 

The Great Escape
In Angus Deaton's book about material living standards and health, 'The Great Escape', he describes mankind's partial escape from poverty and death.  

Deaton's father grew up in a Yorkshire pit village, and through a mixture of hard work and luck escaped to Scotland, marriage and raising Angus and his sister.  He convinced the local teachers to coach Angus for a scholarship to a 'private' school, a launch pad to mathematics at Cambridge and an academic career as an economist at Princeton.  His grandchildren became partners at: a hedge fund is an investment fund that accepts investments from a limited number of accredited individual or institutional investors.  Hedge funds are able to use investment methods that are not allowed for other types of fund. 
and a financial planner.  Over three generation the family had escaped from deprivation and poverty to significant wealth is schematically useful information and its equivalent, schematically useful energy, to paraphrase Beinhocker.  It is useful because an agent has schematic strategies that can utilize the information or energy to extend or leverage control of the cognitive niche.  
and good health.  But many of Deaton's father's village did not escape the ravages of two world wars and poor health.  Deaton argues that from 1750 until 2013 an exceptional transformation occurred for a lucky subset of humanity like his family who escaped from early death, acute disease and poverty to wellbeing is described by Angus Deaton as all the things that are good for a person:
  • Material wellbeing includes income and wealth and its measures: GDP, personal income and consumption.  It can be traded for goods and services which recapture time.  Material wellbeing depends on investments in:
    • Infrastructure
      • Physical
      • Property rights, contracts and dispute resolution
    • People and their education
    • Capturing of basic knowledge via science.  
    • Engineering to turn science into goods and services and then continuously improve them. 
  • Physical and psychological wellbeing are represented by health and happiness; and education and the ability to participate in civil society through democracy and the rule of law.  Life expectancy as a measure of population health, highly weights reductions in child mortality. 
while the rest remained trapped much as before. 

Deaton asserts that today life is better:
  • More people are richer and live longer
  • Fewer live in dire poverty
  • Fewer children die
But it is also more unequal.  Millions:
  • Are destitute and
  • Die prematurely
A new progressive process began 250 years ago by the Dutch and English and amplified by the industrial revolution, supports both the improvements and increasing inequality.  This 'escape' included the divergence of the UK is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. 
, Western Europe and USA is the United States of America.   from the rest of the world, through mechanisms like: Public
Salman Khan argues that the evolved global education system is inefficient and organized around constraining and corralling students into accepting dubious ratings that lead to mundane roles.  He highlights a radical and already proven alternative which offers effective self-paced deep learning processes supported by technology and freed up attention of teams of teachers.  Building on his personal experience of helping overcome the unjustified failing grade of a relative Khan:
  • Iteratively learns how to teach: Starting with Nadia, Leveraging short videos focused on content, Converging on mastery, With the help of neuroscience, and filling in dependent gaps; resulting in a different approach to the mainstream method. 
  • Assesses the broken US education system: Set in its ways, Designed for the 1800s, Inducing holes that are hidden by tests, Tests which ignore creativity.  The resulting teaching process is so inefficient it needs to be supplemented with homework.  Instead teachers were encouraging their pupils to use his tools at home so they could mentor them while they attended school, an inversion that significantly improves the economics. 
  • Enters the real world: Builds a scalable service, Working with a real classroom, Trying stealth learning, At Khan Academy full time,  In the curriculum at Los Altos, Supporting life-long learning. 
  • Develops The One World Schoolhouse: Back to the future with a one room school, a robust teaching team, and creativity enabled; so with some catalysis even the poorest can become educated and earn credentials for current jobs. 
  • Wishes he could also correct: Summer holidays, Transcript based assessments, College education;
  • Concludes it is now possible to provide the infrastructure for creativity to emerge and to support risk taking. 

Following our summary of his arguments RSS frames them from the perspective of complex adaptive system (CAS) theory.  Disruption is a powerful force for change but if its force is used to support the current teachers to adopt new processes can it overcome the extended phenotypic alignment and evolutionary amplifiers sustaining the current educational network? 

education
, Health care.  Larger percentage of children lived past age five and adults lived longer due to: Leveraging knowledge that germs and cigarettes kill, Vaccines are a core strategy of public health and have significantly extended global wellbeing over 200 years.  Recent successes include: HPV vaccine.  They induce active acquired immunity to a particular disease.  But the development and deployment of vaccines is complex:
  • The business model for vaccine development has been failing (Aug 2015): 
    • No Zika vaccine was available as the epidemic grew (Mar 2016).  No vaccine for: CMV;
    • Major foundations: Michael J. Fox, Gates, Wellcome; are working to improve the situation including sponsorship of the GAVI alliance.  A geographic cluster is forming in Seattle including PATH (Apr 2016). 
    • Commercial developers include: Affiris, Cell Genesis, Chiron, CSL, Sanofi, Valeant;
  • Vaccine deployment traditionally benefited from centrally managed vertical health programs.  But political issues are now constraining success with less than 95-99% coverage required for herd immunity (Aug 2015, Sep 2015, Nov 2015, Nov 2016).  
    • Where clinics have been driven into local neighborhoods health improves (Apr 2016).  
    • Retail clinics (Mar 2016): CVS Minute Clinics focus on vaccination.  
  • Key vaccines include: BCG, C. difficile (May 2015), Cholera (El Tor), Dengvaxia (Mexico Dec 2015), Gvax, Malaria vaccine, Provenge;
  • Regulation involves: FDA (CBER), with CMS monitoring (star ratings, PACE (Aug 2016), Report cards (Sep 2015)) & CDC promoting vaccines: as a sepsis measure, To control C. difficile (May 2015);  
    • Coding : CVX, MVX;
  • Research on vaccines includes: 
    • NIH: AIDS vaccines (AVRC), Focus on using genetic analysis to improve vaccine response.  
      • NCI:
        • Roswell Park clinical trial of immuno-oncology vaccine cimavax. 
    • Geisinger: effective process leverage in treatment. 
    • Stanford Edge immuno-oncology for cancer vaccines.  
    • P53-driven-cancer focused, gene therapy (Jun 2015). 
.  Deaton notes that the success is tempered by inequality with two million people dying of vaccine preventable diseases each year and the early benefits of new mechanisms going to the educated and rich. 

Deaton notes there had been rich states before such as 17th century China and in the Indian sub-continent.  Such progress has been stopped before by: Climate change, Wars, Epidemics is the rapid spread of infectious disease: AIDS (Oct 2016), Cholera (2010), Clostridium difficile (May 2015), Ebola, Influenza, Polio, SARS, Tuberculosis, Typhoid, Malaria, Yellow fever, Zika; to large numbers of people in a population within a short period of time -- two weeks or less.  Epidemics are studied and monitored by: NIAID, CDC, WHO; but are managed by states in the US.  Infection control escalation is supported by biocontainment units: Emory, Nebraska.  Once memes are included in the set of infectious schematic materials, human addictions can present as epidemics concludes Dr. Nora Volkow of the NIDA.  CEPI aims to ensure public health networks are effectively prepared for epidemics.  PHCPI aims to strengthen PCPs globally to improve responsiveness to epidemics.  GAVI helps catalyze the development and deployment of vaccines.  Sporadic investment in public health enables development of conditions for vector development: Mosquitos.  The increasing demands of the global population are altering the planet: Climate change is shifting mosquito bases, Forests are being invaded bringing wildlife and their diseases in contact with human networks.  Globalized travel acts as an infection amplifier: Ebola to Texas.  Health clinics have also acted as amplifiers: AIDS in Haiti, C. diff & MRSA infections enabled & amplified by hospitals.  Haiti earthquake support from the UN similarly introduced Cholera. 
, Corruption.  Indeed as growth now slows in the 'west' there are fears of falling back. 

Deaton argues that wellbeing is described by Angus Deaton as all the things that are good for a person:
  • Material wellbeing includes income and wealth and its measures: GDP, personal income and consumption.  It can be traded for goods and services which recapture time.  Material wellbeing depends on investments in:
    • Infrastructure
      • Physical
      • Property rights, contracts and dispute resolution
    • People and their education
    • Capturing of basic knowledge via science.  
    • Engineering to turn science into goods and services and then continuously improve them. 
  • Physical and psychological wellbeing are represented by health and happiness; and education and the ability to participate in civil society through democracy and the rule of law.  Life expectancy as a measure of population health, highly weights reductions in child mortality. 
must be the measure of progress.  When economists apply the Pareto criterion allocates resources measurably so that each change must make at least one person better off and make no one worse off. 
to income alone it ignores key aspects of public health is the proactive planning, coordination and execution of strategies to improve and safeguard the wellbeing of the public.  Its global situation is discussed in The Great Escape by Deaton.  Public health in the US is coordinated by the PHS federally but is mainly executed at the state and local levels.  Public health includes:
  • Awareness campaigns about health threatening activities including: Smoking, Over-eating, Alcohol consumption, Contamination with poisons, Joint damage from over-exercise;
  • Research, monitoring and control of disease agents, processes and vectors by agencies including the CDC. 
  • Monitoring of the public's health by institutes including the NIH.  
  • Development, deployment and maintenance of infrastructure including: sewers, water plants and pipes.  
  • Development, deployment and maintenance of vaccination strategies. 
  • Regulation and constraint of foods, drugs and devices by agencies including the FDA. 
and education that might not improve broadly. 

Deaton asserts that new: Knowledge, Inventions and Ways of doing things are key to progress.  And that the British enlightenment encouraged a supporting attitude of relentless self-improvement. This resulted in responses to serious problems that initiated key improvements in public health is the proactive planning, coordination and execution of strategies to improve and safeguard the wellbeing of the public.  Its global situation is discussed in The Great Escape by Deaton.  Public health in the US is coordinated by the PHS federally but is mainly executed at the state and local levels.  Public health includes:
  • Awareness campaigns about health threatening activities including: Smoking, Over-eating, Alcohol consumption, Contamination with poisons, Joint damage from over-exercise;
  • Research, monitoring and control of disease agents, processes and vectors by agencies including the CDC. 
  • Monitoring of the public's health by institutes including the NIH.  
  • Development, deployment and maintenance of infrastructure including: sewers, water plants and pipes.  
  • Development, deployment and maintenance of vaccination strategies. 
  • Regulation and constraint of foods, drugs and devices by agencies including the FDA. 
:

Deaton asks: What does inequality do? Does it help or hurt?  Is it different in health than in wealth is schematically useful information and its equivalent, schematically useful energy, to paraphrase Beinhocker.  It is useful because an agent has schematic strategies that can utilize the information or energy to extend or leverage control of the cognitive niche.  
?  It is a difficult assessment:

The wellbeing of the world
Deaton argues that the great escape is from poverty and death.  Previously those who escaped death in childhood lived in grinding poverty.  But subsequently the enlightenment, industrial revolution and germ theory of disease is a platform of related discoveries in microbiology by Koch (postulates developed from 1870s) and Pasteur (1880) and antiseptic surgery by Joseph Lister (1879).  These innovations were made necessary by the stresses of the industrial revolution 
allowed living standards to improve by orders of magnitude:
Measures of wellbeing is described by Angus Deaton as all the things that are good for a person:
  • Material wellbeing includes income and wealth and its measures: GDP, personal income and consumption.  It can be traded for goods and services which recapture time.  Material wellbeing depends on investments in:
    • Infrastructure
      • Physical
      • Property rights, contracts and dispute resolution
    • People and their education
    • Capturing of basic knowledge via science.  
    • Engineering to turn science into goods and services and then continuously improve them. 
  • Physical and psychological wellbeing are represented by health and happiness; and education and the ability to participate in civil society through democracy and the rule of law.  Life expectancy as a measure of population health, highly weights reductions in child mortality. 
for poor people with positive life evaluations and rich people with negative life evaluations can be defined in terms of opportunities to have a good life.  The capabilities and potential of the situation can provide insights but these measures ignore the person's feelings about how life is proceeding and a person's current happiness is an emotion which functions to mobilize the mind to seek capabilities and resources that support Darwinian fitness.  Today happiness is associated with Epicurean ideas that were rediscovered during the renaissance and promoted by Thomas Jefferson.  But natural selection has 'designed' happiness to support hunter-gatherer fitness in the African savanna.  It is assessed: Relative to other's situations, Based on small gains or losses relative to one's current situation; and so what makes us [un-]happy and our responses can seem a counter-productive treadmill.  For Pleistocene hunter-gatherers in the savanna there were many ways for losses to undermine fitness and so losses still make us very unhappy.  Smoking, drinking and excessive eating were not significant and so don't make us unhappy even though they impact longevity.   which must be significant. 

Deaton argues that Samuel Preston's plot of life expectancy is a measure of the average life time of a new born baby.  Without public health assistance many children die in the first five years of life significantly lowering the life expectancy of the whole group.  There are representational and data capture problems with the model:
  • Not knowing the risk of dying in the newborn's future, demographers use the risks present at that time to predict impacts in the future of the person.  No adjustment can be made for increased wellbeing. 
  • Saving the lives of children has a far larger effect on increasing life expectancy than extending the lives of the elderly
  • Impacts that occur in a particular year, such as a epidemic or pandemic, are treated as permanent effects for that years life expectancy even though they may be handled by public health strategies and hence be transients.  For life expectancy calculations in subsequent years the impact is ignored.  
  • Programs that reduced the impacts of infectious diseases, such as antibiotics and vaccine deployment, have reduced the variability of life expectancy following their introduction.  
  • Vital registration systems gather accurate data for life expectancy.  But most countries do not have the infrastructure and instead estimates are generated from demographic and health surveys. 
(y) vs log (GDP is:
  • Gross domestic product which measures the total of goods and services produced in a given year within the borders of a given country according to Piketty.  GDP has many problems:
    • GDP is a poor measure of:
      • Value & wealth
      • Who gets what
    • GDP excludes:
      • Services by house makers
      • Leisure
    • GDP includes items that should be excluded:
      • Cost of waste - cleaning up pollution, building prisons, commuting to work;
  • Guanine-di-phosphate is a nucleotide base. 
per capita) (x) around the world shows a linear relationship with outliers created by the effects of: HIV is human immunodeficiency virus, an RNA retrovirus which causes AIDS.  It infects T-lymphocytes destroying the host's immune system. 
/AIDS is acquired auto-immune deficiency syndrome, a pandemic disease caused by the HIV.  It also amplifies the threat of tuberculosis.   Initially deadly, infecting and destroying the T-lymphocytes of the immune system, it can now be treated with HAART to become a chronic disease.  And with an understanding of HIV's mode of entry into the T-cells, through its binding to CCR5 and CD4 encoded transmembrane proteins, AIDS may be susceptible to treatment with recombinant DNA to alter the CCR5 binding site, or with drugs that bind to the CCR5 cell surface protein preventing binding by the virus.  Future optimization of drug delivery may leverage nanoscale research (May 2016).   (South Africa became a rich white country within a destitute black country again), War, Income inequality, Disruption in Russia after communism fell; and indicates that nearly all countries have become richer and their people live longer.  The young survive better.  And especially in Japan the old do to.  But there are occasional catastrophes such as the disastrous and prolonged famine is declared when:
  1. One in five households in a specific area face extreme food shortages
  2. More than 30% of the population is acutely malnourished
  3. Two people in 10,000 die each day
from China's great leap forward and the ongoing AIDs pandemic. 

Americans are much richer today.  But 14% of them are poor.  And life expectancy is a measure of the average life time of a new born baby.  Without public health assistance many children die in the first five years of life significantly lowering the life expectancy of the whole group.  There are representational and data capture problems with the model:
  • Not knowing the risk of dying in the newborn's future, demographers use the risks present at that time to predict impacts in the future of the person.  No adjustment can be made for increased wellbeing. 
  • Saving the lives of children has a far larger effect on increasing life expectancy than extending the lives of the elderly
  • Impacts that occur in a particular year, such as a epidemic or pandemic, are treated as permanent effects for that years life expectancy even though they may be handled by public health strategies and hence be transients.  For life expectancy calculations in subsequent years the impact is ignored.  
  • Programs that reduced the impacts of infectious diseases, such as antibiotics and vaccine deployment, have reduced the variability of life expectancy following their introduction.  
  • Vital registration systems gather accurate data for life expectancy.  But most countries do not have the infrastructure and instead estimates are generated from demographic and health surveys. 
in the US is the United States of America.   is less than other rich nations even though it spends more on health care.  These differences between the rich countries are tiny in comparison to the differences between rich countries and poor ones. 
China and India include half the world's poorest people.  The per capita income is 20% of the US but many Chinese live on less than $1 a day. 
In China longevity is 73. 
In India longevity is 64. 

Emotional wellbeing assessments are clouded by how different people and nations view their lives and how happy they are which can be very different.  Once a person escapes poverty money has no effect on happiness is an emotion which functions to mobilize the mind to seek capabilities and resources that support Darwinian fitness.  Today happiness is associated with Epicurean ideas that were rediscovered during the renaissance and promoted by Thomas Jefferson.  But natural selection has 'designed' happiness to support hunter-gatherer fitness in the African savanna.  It is assessed: Relative to other's situations, Based on small gains or losses relative to one's current situation; and so what makes us [un-]happy and our responses can seem a counter-productive treadmill.  For Pleistocene hunter-gatherers in the savanna there were many ways for losses to undermine fitness and so losses still make us very unhappy.  Smoking, drinking and excessive eating were not significant and so don't make us unhappy even though they impact longevity.  .  Happiness seems to be a poor indicator of wellbeing is described by Angus Deaton as all the things that are good for a person:
  • Material wellbeing includes income and wealth and its measures: GDP, personal income and consumption.  It can be traded for goods and services which recapture time.  Material wellbeing depends on investments in:
    • Infrastructure
      • Physical
      • Property rights, contracts and dispute resolution
    • People and their education
    • Capturing of basic knowledge via science.  
    • Engineering to turn science into goods and services and then continuously improve them. 
  • Physical and psychological wellbeing are represented by health and happiness; and education and the ability to participate in civil society through democracy and the rule of law.  Life expectancy as a measure of population health, highly weights reductions in child mortality. 

From pre-history to 1945
Deaton starts his review of the improvements in health by looking at long term changes in life expectancy is a measure of the average life time of a new born baby.  Without public health assistance many children die in the first five years of life significantly lowering the life expectancy of the whole group.  There are representational and data capture problems with the model:
  • Not knowing the risk of dying in the newborn's future, demographers use the risks present at that time to predict impacts in the future of the person.  No adjustment can be made for increased wellbeing. 
  • Saving the lives of children has a far larger effect on increasing life expectancy than extending the lives of the elderly
  • Impacts that occur in a particular year, such as a epidemic or pandemic, are treated as permanent effects for that years life expectancy even though they may be handled by public health strategies and hence be transients.  For life expectancy calculations in subsequent years the impact is ignored.  
  • Programs that reduced the impacts of infectious diseases, such as antibiotics and vaccine deployment, have reduced the variability of life expectancy following their introduction.  
  • Vital registration systems gather accurate data for life expectancy.  But most countries do not have the infrastructure and instead estimates are generated from demographic and health surveys. 
.  He introduces the changes using the US is the United States of America.   first and then reviews prehistory, the enlightenment and on to the Second World War.  The US showed steady upward progress from 1900 to 2000 except for the precipitous drop in 1918 from the flu is a virus, normally hosted in birds, which jumps to humans causing pandemics of infection and deaths.  The "Spanish flu" epidemic of 1918-1919 killed between 50 and 100 million people.  Infection in people appears to depend on host genetics but no mechanism has been identified.   pandemic.  It has clear data from the vital registration system gathers all occurrences of births and deaths across the OECD. 


For rich countries cessation of smoking is the most important effector of increased life expectancy and reduced mortality. 
There are inequalities between blacks and whites in America: in income, wealth is schematically useful information and its equivalent, schematically useful energy, to paraphrase Beinhocker.  It is useful because an agent has schematic strategies that can utilize the information or energy to extend or leverage control of the cognitive niche.  
,
Salman Khan argues that the evolved global education system is inefficient and organized around constraining and corralling students into accepting dubious ratings that lead to mundane roles.  He highlights a radical and already proven alternative which offers effective self-paced deep learning processes supported by technology and freed up attention of teams of teachers.  Building on his personal experience of helping overcome the unjustified failing grade of a relative Khan:
  • Iteratively learns how to teach: Starting with Nadia, Leveraging short videos focused on content, Converging on mastery, With the help of neuroscience, and filling in dependent gaps; resulting in a different approach to the mainstream method. 
  • Assesses the broken US education system: Set in its ways, Designed for the 1800s, Inducing holes that are hidden by tests, Tests which ignore creativity.  The resulting teaching process is so inefficient it needs to be supplemented with homework.  Instead teachers were encouraging their pupils to use his tools at home so they could mentor them while they attended school, an inversion that significantly improves the economics. 
  • Enters the real world: Builds a scalable service, Working with a real classroom, Trying stealth learning, At Khan Academy full time,  In the curriculum at Los Altos, Supporting life-long learning. 
  • Develops The One World Schoolhouse: Back to the future with a one room school, a robust teaching team, and creativity enabled; so with some catalysis even the poorest can become educated and earn credentials for current jobs. 
  • Wishes he could also correct: Summer holidays, Transcript based assessments, College education;
  • Concludes it is now possible to provide the infrastructure for creativity to emerge and to support risk taking. 

Following our summary of his arguments RSS frames them from the perspective of complex adaptive system (CAS) theory.  Disruption is a powerful force for change but if its force is used to support the current teachers to adopt new processes can it overcome the extended phenotypic alignment and evolutionary amplifiers sustaining the current educational network? 

education
, suffrage, health care provision, but they are all trending to an improvement. 

A high interim mortality in the US is found among 20 year old males -- where they die from suicide, homicide and accidents.  Subsequently mortality slowly grows with age. 

Life and Death in Prehistory
Deaton leverages paleopathology examines skeletal remains from the archeological record.  It provides information about: nutrition, disease and causes of death; and estimates of life expectancy from skeletons. 
and anthropology research to develop a model of hunter gatherer groups.  They were:
With this model Deaton argues that hunter gatherer bands' wellbeing is described by Angus Deaton as all the things that are good for a person:
  • Material wellbeing includes income and wealth and its measures: GDP, personal income and consumption.  It can be traded for goods and services which recapture time.  Material wellbeing depends on investments in:
    • Infrastructure
      • Physical
      • Property rights, contracts and dispute resolution
    • People and their education
    • Capturing of basic knowledge via science.  
    • Engineering to turn science into goods and services and then continuously improve them. 
  • Physical and psychological wellbeing are represented by health and happiness; and education and the ability to participate in civil society through democracy and the rule of law.  Life expectancy as a measure of population health, highly weights reductions in child mortality. 
was greater than for the farming communities that developed subsequently. 

Farmers had limited exercise, put up with monotony and existed on poor food.  Their ability to store resources encouraged larger populations allowing:

Life and Death in the Enlightenment
Deaton notes that until 1750 the British aristocracy, though better fed, had a lower life expectancy is a measure of the average life time of a new born baby.  Without public health assistance many children die in the first five years of life significantly lowering the life expectancy of the whole group.  There are representational and data capture problems with the model:
  • Not knowing the risk of dying in the newborn's future, demographers use the risks present at that time to predict impacts in the future of the person.  No adjustment can be made for increased wellbeing. 
  • Saving the lives of children has a far larger effect on increasing life expectancy than extending the lives of the elderly
  • Impacts that occur in a particular year, such as a epidemic or pandemic, are treated as permanent effects for that years life expectancy even though they may be handled by public health strategies and hence be transients.  For life expectancy calculations in subsequent years the impact is ignored.  
  • Programs that reduced the impacts of infectious diseases, such as antibiotics and vaccine deployment, have reduced the variability of life expectancy following their introduction.  
  • Vital registration systems gather accurate data for life expectancy.  But most countries do not have the infrastructure and instead estimates are generated from demographic and health surveys. 
than the common people.  He argues this is because they did not have any better protection from farm diseases and poor sanitation.  But after 1750 he notes a twenty year improvement developed for the aristocracy which by 1770 was observed for the whole population.  Deaton explains that the new enlightenment philosophy of science and trial and error enabled key changes in health.  Deaton identifies:
Initially the changes were costly and of limited awareness helping only the wealthy is schematically useful information and its equivalent, schematically useful energy, to paraphrase Beinhocker.  It is useful because an agent has schematic strategies that can utilize the information or energy to extend or leverage control of the cognitive niche.  
.  But over time they reached the whole population.  Deaton notes this will be a recurring theme. 

From 1800 to 1945: Nutrition, Growth, and Sanitation
Deaton notes there was now a huge increase in life expectancy is a measure of the average life time of a new born baby.  Without public health assistance many children die in the first five years of life significantly lowering the life expectancy of the whole group.  There are representational and data capture problems with the model:
  • Not knowing the risk of dying in the newborn's future, demographers use the risks present at that time to predict impacts in the future of the person.  No adjustment can be made for increased wellbeing. 
  • Saving the lives of children has a far larger effect on increasing life expectancy than extending the lives of the elderly
  • Impacts that occur in a particular year, such as a epidemic or pandemic, are treated as permanent effects for that years life expectancy even though they may be handled by public health strategies and hence be transients.  For life expectancy calculations in subsequent years the impact is ignored.  
  • Programs that reduced the impacts of infectious diseases, such as antibiotics and vaccine deployment, have reduced the variability of life expectancy following their introduction.  
  • Vital registration systems gather accurate data for life expectancy.  But most countries do not have the infrastructure and instead estimates are generated from demographic and health surveys. 
due to a massive drop in child mortality.  This increase was prior to the major use of antibiotics are compounds which kill bacteria, molds, etc.  The first antibiotic discovered was penicillin.  Antibiotics are central to modern health care supporting the processes of: Surgery, Wound management, Infection control; which makes the development of antibiotic resistance worrying.  Antibiotics are:
  • Economically problematic to develop and sell. 
    • Congress enacted GAIN to encourage development of new antibiotics.  But it has not developed any market-entry award scheme, which seems necessary to encourage new antibiotic R&D. 
    • Medicare has required hospitals and SNFs to execute plans to ensure correct use of antibiotics & prevent the spread of drug-resistant infections.  
    • C.D.C. is acting to stop the spread of resistant infections and reduce unnecessary use of antibiotics.  
    • F.D.A. has simplified approval standards.  It is working with industry to limit use of antibiotics in livestock. 
    • BARDA is promoting public-private partnerships to support promising research.
  • Impacting the microbiome of the recipient.  Stool banking is a solution  (Sloan-Kettering stool banking).  
  • Associated with obesity, although evidence suggests childhood obesity relates to the infections not the antibiotic treatments (Nov 2016). 
  • Monitored globally by W.H.O.
  • Regulated in the US by the F.D.A. who promote voluntary labeling by industry to discourage livestock fattening (Dec 2013).  
    • Customer demands have more effect - Perdue shifts to no antibiotics in premier chickens (Aug 2015). 
.  It was due to:

Escaping Death in the Tropics
After the Second World War, by leveraging science, life expectancy is a measure of the average life time of a new born baby.  Without public health assistance many children die in the first five years of life significantly lowering the life expectancy of the whole group.  There are representational and data capture problems with the model:
  • Not knowing the risk of dying in the newborn's future, demographers use the risks present at that time to predict impacts in the future of the person.  No adjustment can be made for increased wellbeing. 
  • Saving the lives of children has a far larger effect on increasing life expectancy than extending the lives of the elderly
  • Impacts that occur in a particular year, such as a epidemic or pandemic, are treated as permanent effects for that years life expectancy even though they may be handled by public health strategies and hence be transients.  For life expectancy calculations in subsequent years the impact is ignored.  
  • Programs that reduced the impacts of infectious diseases, such as antibiotics and vaccine deployment, have reduced the variability of life expectancy following their introduction.  
  • Vital registration systems gather accurate data for life expectancy.  But most countries do not have the infrastructure and instead estimates are generated from demographic and health surveys. 
in poor countries moved closer to that of the rich countries, until impacted by HIV is human immunodeficiency virus, an RNA retrovirus which causes AIDS.  It infects T-lymphocytes destroying the host's immune system. 
/AIDS is acquired auto-immune deficiency syndrome, a pandemic disease caused by the HIV.  It also amplifies the threat of tuberculosis.   Initially deadly, infecting and destroying the T-lymphocytes of the immune system, it can now be treated with HAART to become a chronic disease.  And with an understanding of HIV's mode of entry into the T-cells, through its binding to CCR5 and CD4 encoded transmembrane proteins, AIDS may be susceptible to treatment with recombinant DNA to alter the CCR5 binding site, or with drugs that bind to the CCR5 cell surface protein preventing binding by the virus.  Future optimization of drug delivery may leverage nanoscale research (May 2016).  

Vertical health programs were major aspects of the success using centrally funded, resourced and coordinated teams from the rich countries to implement:
And higher incomes and improved
Salman Khan argues that the evolved global education system is inefficient and organized around constraining and corralling students into accepting dubious ratings that lead to mundane roles.  He highlights a radical and already proven alternative which offers effective self-paced deep learning processes supported by technology and freed up attention of teams of teachers.  Building on his personal experience of helping overcome the unjustified failing grade of a relative Khan:
  • Iteratively learns how to teach: Starting with Nadia, Leveraging short videos focused on content, Converging on mastery, With the help of neuroscience, and filling in dependent gaps; resulting in a different approach to the mainstream method. 
  • Assesses the broken US education system: Set in its ways, Designed for the 1800s, Inducing holes that are hidden by tests, Tests which ignore creativity.  The resulting teaching process is so inefficient it needs to be supplemented with homework.  Instead teachers were encouraging their pupils to use his tools at home so they could mentor them while they attended school, an inversion that significantly improves the economics. 
  • Enters the real world: Builds a scalable service, Working with a real classroom, Trying stealth learning, At Khan Academy full time,  In the curriculum at Los Altos, Supporting life-long learning. 
  • Develops The One World Schoolhouse: Back to the future with a one room school, a robust teaching team, and creativity enabled; so with some catalysis even the poorest can become educated and earn credentials for current jobs. 
  • Wishes he could also correct: Summer holidays, Transcript based assessments, College education;
  • Concludes it is now possible to provide the infrastructure for creativity to emerge and to support risk taking. 

Following our summary of his arguments RSS frames them from the perspective of complex adaptive system (CAS) theory.  Disruption is a powerful force for change but if its force is used to support the current teachers to adopt new processes can it overcome the extended phenotypic alignment and evolutionary amplifiers sustaining the current educational network? 

education
resulted in:
  • Reduced numbers of children per family -- increasing resources per child and changing the investment required by the parents.  
The new ways of doing things and the vertical programs resulted in an upward trend in the Preston life expectancy is a measure of the average life time of a new born baby.  Without public health assistance many children die in the first five years of life significantly lowering the life expectancy of the whole group.  There are representational and data capture problems with the model:
  • Not knowing the risk of dying in the newborn's future, demographers use the risks present at that time to predict impacts in the future of the person.  No adjustment can be made for increased wellbeing. 
  • Saving the lives of children has a far larger effect on increasing life expectancy than extending the lives of the elderly
  • Impacts that occur in a particular year, such as a epidemic or pandemic, are treated as permanent effects for that years life expectancy even though they may be handled by public health strategies and hence be transients.  For life expectancy calculations in subsequent years the impact is ignored.  
  • Programs that reduced the impacts of infectious diseases, such as antibiotics and vaccine deployment, have reduced the variability of life expectancy following their introduction.  
  • Vital registration systems gather accurate data for life expectancy.  But most countries do not have the infrastructure and instead estimates are generated from demographic and health surveys. 
plots. 

But in many countries, as an accident of where they are born, children still die of traditional illnesses.  In India adults are very short and children are malnourished.  Africa and South Asia are the areas where the most improvement is needed.  HIV is human immunodeficiency virus, an RNA retrovirus which causes AIDS.  It infects T-lymphocytes destroying the host's immune system. 
/AIDS is acquired auto-immune deficiency syndrome, a pandemic disease caused by the HIV.  It also amplifies the threat of tuberculosis.   Initially deadly, infecting and destroying the T-lymphocytes of the immune system, it can now be treated with HAART to become a chronic disease.  And with an understanding of HIV's mode of entry into the T-cells, through its binding to CCR5 and CD4 encoded transmembrane proteins, AIDS may be susceptible to treatment with recombinant DNA to alter the CCR5 binding site, or with drugs that bind to the CCR5 cell surface protein preventing binding by the virus.  Future optimization of drug delivery may leverage nanoscale research (May 2016).   added to the issues, but anti-retroviral drugs are starting to help.  Faster growing countries infant mortality rates did not improve but it is hard to tell if this is a distortion induced by the subsequent impacts of population growth.  In small countries money is not dedicated to public health is the proactive planning, coordination and execution of strategies to improve and safeguard the wellbeing of the public.  Its global situation is discussed in The Great Escape by Deaton.  Public health in the US is coordinated by the PHS federally but is mainly executed at the state and local levels.  Public health includes:
  • Awareness campaigns about health threatening activities including: Smoking, Over-eating, Alcohol consumption, Contamination with poisons, Joint damage from over-exercise;
  • Research, monitoring and control of disease agents, processes and vectors by agencies including the CDC. 
  • Monitoring of the public's health by institutes including the NIH.  
  • Development, deployment and maintenance of infrastructure including: sewers, water plants and pipes.  
  • Development, deployment and maintenance of vaccination strategies. 
  • Regulation and constraint of foods, drugs and devices by agencies including the FDA. 
or to paying for health care.  Politicians are not incented to make that happen:

China's totalitarian political system can implement policy efficiently.  But as demonstrated by the 1958 famine it is not just, or sensitive to local conditions and feedback. 

India's democratic system is slowed by its sensitivity to conflicting local demands.  But it has not had a famine is declared when:
  1. One in five households in a specific area face extreme food shortages
  2. More than 30% of the population is acutely malnourished
  3. Two people in 10,000 die each day
since independence.  During British rule there were many. 


Health in the modern world
Poor countries started to get healthy after the Second World War.  Interconnected infrastructure catalyzed flows of diseases and treatments.  And the middle aged and elderly lived longer.  In the first world the major killers became: heart disease is cardiovascular disease which refers to:
  • Conditions where narrowed and blocked blood vessels result in angina, hypertension, CHD and heart attacks and hemorrhagic/ischemic strokes.  Mutations of the gene PCSK9 have been implicated in cardiovascular disease.  Rare families with dominant inheritence of the mutations have an overactive protein, very high levels of blood cholesterol and cardiac disease. Other rare PCSK9 mutations result in an 88% reduced risk from heart disease.  Inflammation is associated with cardiovascular disease (Aug 2017). 
, stroke is when brain cells are deprived of oxygen and begin to die.  There are two structural types: Ischemic and hemorrhagic. 
, cancer is the out-of-control growth of cells, which have stopped obeying their cooperative schematic planning and signalling infrastructure.  It results from compounded: oncogene, tumor suppressor, DNA caretaker; mutations in the DNA.  In 2010 one third of Americans are likely to die of cancer.  Cell division rates did not predict likelihood of cancer.  Viral infections are associated.  Radiation and carcinogen exposure are associated.  Lifestyle impacts the likelihood of cancer occurring: Drinking alcohol to excess, lack of exercise, Obesity, Smoking, More sun than your evolved melanin protection level; all significantly increase the risk of cancer occurring (Jul 2016).  ; and later Alzheimer's disease is a dementia which correlates with deposition of amyloid plaques in the neurons.  As of 2015 there are 5 million Alzheimer's patients in the USA.  It was originally defined as starting in middle age which is rare, so it was a rare dementia.  But in 1980s it was redefined as any dementia without another known cause. Early indications include mood and behavioral changes (MBI) and memory and thinking problems (MCI).  Variants include: late-onset sporadic; with risk factors - ApoE4, presenilin, androgen deprivation therapy (Dec 2015).  There are multiple theories of the mechanism of Alzheimer's during aging: Allen Roses argues that it is due to gene alleles that limit the capacity of mitochondria to support neuron operation; It is initiated by an increasingly leaky blood-brain barrier and the innate immune response to subsequent infections (May 2016).  The Alzheimer's pathway follows:
  • Plaques form and set off the formation of tangled thread-like tau protein.
    • Solanezumab aimed to inhibit plaque formation but clinical trials failed (Nov 2016).  
    • BACE inhibitors block an enzyme needed to form amyloid. 
  • The Tau tangles kill nerve cells.  LMTX is a drug treatment targeted at these tangles. 
  • The brain becomes inflamed resulting in the killing of many more nerve cells. 
as new medicines and behavioral change altered life expectancy is a measure of the average life time of a new born baby.  Without public health assistance many children die in the first five years of life significantly lowering the life expectancy of the whole group.  There are representational and data capture problems with the model:
  • Not knowing the risk of dying in the newborn's future, demographers use the risks present at that time to predict impacts in the future of the person.  No adjustment can be made for increased wellbeing. 
  • Saving the lives of children has a far larger effect on increasing life expectancy than extending the lives of the elderly
  • Impacts that occur in a particular year, such as a epidemic or pandemic, are treated as permanent effects for that years life expectancy even though they may be handled by public health strategies and hence be transients.  For life expectancy calculations in subsequent years the impact is ignored.  
  • Programs that reduced the impacts of infectious diseases, such as antibiotics and vaccine deployment, have reduced the variability of life expectancy following their introduction.  
  • Vital registration systems gather accurate data for life expectancy.  But most countries do not have the infrastructure and instead estimates are generated from demographic and health surveys. 
.  The disease mechanisms became clear due to scientific discoveries. 

It is not clear that international health inequalities are getting smaller.  Malnutrition is unbalanced nourishment that causes health problems.  Cystic Fibrosis can result in failure to deploy the enzymes necessary to effectively digest food inducing malnutrition.  Starvation can take different forms: Kwashiorkor, Marasmus; even in identical twins.  Microbiome differences have been implicated in some of these starvation cases in research by Jeff Gordon's lab carried out in Malawi.  Gordon found that a Malawian starvation diet and specific set of gut bacteria caused weight loss in mice.  The poor diet induces changes in susceptible gut flora and undermine the host's immune system.  Harmful infections then further disrupt the flora and absorption by the gut wall.  A cascade occurs resulting in collapse of the prior microbiome and stabilization with one that repeatedly results in Kwashiorkor. 
is still a problem.  People are getting taller -- but very slowly.  Small women can't develop huge children so it takes time.  In India food is still scarce and vegetarian.  Too little fat in the diet is impeding brain development is a phase during the operation of a CAS agent.  It allows for schematic strategies to be iteratively blended with environmental signals to solve the logistical issues of migrating newly built and transformed sub-agents.  That is needed to achieve the adult configuration of the agent and optimize it for the proximate environment.  Smiley includes examples of the developmental phase agents required in an emergent CAS.  In situations where parents invest in the growth and memetic learning of their offspring the schematic grab bag can support optimizations to develop models, structures and actions to construct an adept adult.  In humans, adolescence leverages neural plasticity, elder sibling advice and adult coaching to help prepare the deploying neuronal network and body to successfully compete. 
.  More and better food seventy years ago may be starting to have beneficial effects now.  Life expectancy is half a year higher for those born in Oct relative to those born in Apr.  This is because nutritious spring vegetables were available to the mothers of children born in Oct.  Finland was very poor in 1914 which is reflected in the relatively high percentage of 55 year old Fins with cardiovascular issues refers to:
  • Conditions where narrowed and blocked blood vessels result in angina, hypertension, CHD and heart attacks and hemorrhagic/ischemic strokes.  Mutations of the gene PCSK9 have been implicated in cardiovascular disease.  Rare families with dominant inheritence of the mutations have an overactive protein, very high levels of blood cholesterol and cardiac disease. Other rare PCSK9 mutations result in an 88% reduced risk from heart disease.  Inflammation is associated with cardiovascular disease (Aug 2017). 
in the 1970s. 
Africa has a lower density of population and a more diverse source of foods including meat, than India, so its people are taller.  But women in some places are getting shorter which Deaton attributes to falling real incomes in the 1980s and early 1990s. 

Joint replacements have helped reduce morbidity by reducing pain amplifies the aggression response of people by interoceptive signalling of brain regions providing social emotions including the PAG projecting to the amygdala; making aggressive people more so and less aggressive people less so.  Pain is the main reason people visit the ED in the US.   (along with pain medicines) and suffering that can result in depression is a debilitating state which is facilitated by genetic predisposition - for example genes coding for relatively low serotonin levels; and an accumulation of traumatic events.  There is evidence of shifts in the sleep/wake cycle in affected individuals (Dec 2015).  The affected person will experience a pathological sense of loss of control, prolonged sadness, irritability, sleep disturbances, loss of appetite, and inability to experience pleasure.  It affects 12% of men and 20% of women.  It appears to be associated with androgen deprivation therapy treatment for prostate cancer (Apr 2016).  Chronic stress depletes the nucleus accumbens of dopamine, biasing humans towards depression.  Depression easily leads to following unhealthy pathways: drinking, overeating; which increase the risk of heart disease.   It has been associated with an aging related B12 deficiency (Sep 2016).  During depression, stress mediates inhibition of dopamine signalling.  There is an association between depression and particular brain regions: Hippocampal dendrite and spine number reductions, Dorsal raphe nucleus linked to loneliness, Abnormalities of the ACC.  Childhood adversity can increase depression risk by linking recollections of uncontrollable situations to overgeneralizations that life will always be terrible and uncontrollable.  Treatments include: CBT, UMHS depression management.  As of 2010 drug treatments take weeks to facilitate a response & many patients do not respond to the first drug applied, often prolonging the agony.   Genomic predictions of which treatment will be effective have not been possible because: Not all clinical depressions are the same, a standard definition of drug response is difficult; as well as physical and mental impairments.  Similarly broad benefits are seen from cataract surgery. 

Antihypertensive are treatments for hypertension including: diuretics, ACE inhibitors, calcium channel blockers, beta blockers and angiotensin antagonists. 
and statin are serum cholesterol lowering drugs established as safe and effective at reducing the risk of heart-attacks, hemorrhagic & Ischemic strokes and deaths from atherosclerotic heart disease.  They also reduce inflammation that can induce blood clots.  They appear to stabilize plaque.  About 5% of people, most with a specific allele of SLCO1B1, have muscle aches, and in some blood sugar increases.  Statins inhibit HMG-CoA reductase which produces cholesterol in the liver.   treatments for cardiovascular disease refers to:
  • Conditions where narrowed and blocked blood vessels result in angina, hypertension, CHD and heart attacks and hemorrhagic/ischemic strokes.  Mutations of the gene PCSK9 have been implicated in cardiovascular disease.  Rare families with dominant inheritence of the mutations have an overactive protein, very high levels of blood cholesterol and cardiac disease. Other rare PCSK9 mutations result in an 88% reduced risk from heart disease.  Inflammation is associated with cardiovascular disease (Aug 2017). 
are cheap and have proved highly effective in reducing death rates.  Radiotherapy is expensive and cancer inducing so over-diagnosis is a problem. 

Treatments for cancer is the out-of-control growth of cells, which have stopped obeying their cooperative schematic planning and signalling infrastructure.  It results from compounded: oncogene, tumor suppressor, DNA caretaker; mutations in the DNA.  In 2010 one third of Americans are likely to die of cancer.  Cell division rates did not predict likelihood of cancer.  Viral infections are associated.  Radiation and carcinogen exposure are associated.  Lifestyle impacts the likelihood of cancer occurring: Drinking alcohol to excess, lack of exercise, Obesity, Smoking, More sun than your evolved melanin protection level; all significantly increase the risk of cancer occurring (Jul 2016).   have proved to be very expensive.  But they are reducing the direct impacts of cancer.  Early scanning has not reduced late stage death rates and seems of little value. 

Health care waste undermines public health is the proactive planning, coordination and execution of strategies to improve and safeguard the wellbeing of the public.  Its global situation is discussed in The Great Escape by Deaton.  Public health in the US is coordinated by the PHS federally but is mainly executed at the state and local levels.  Public health includes:
  • Awareness campaigns about health threatening activities including: Smoking, Over-eating, Alcohol consumption, Contamination with poisons, Joint damage from over-exercise;
  • Research, monitoring and control of disease agents, processes and vectors by agencies including the CDC. 
  • Monitoring of the public's health by institutes including the NIH.  
  • Development, deployment and maintenance of infrastructure including: sewers, water plants and pipes.  
  • Development, deployment and maintenance of vaccination strategies. 
  • Regulation and constraint of foods, drugs and devices by agencies including the FDA. 
.  The waste is demonstrated by the Dartmouth Atlas is the Dartmouth Institute's map of the US on which is documented spending by Medicare.  As of 2015 it demonstrates extraordinary variation in spending on health-care from place to place with a negative correlation between expenditure and quality of outcome. 
which shows a negative correlation between cost and outcome quality indicating over-diagnosis and overtreatment is the application of unnecessary health care.  It is a complex problem:
  • Overtreatment needs to be adaptive.  As people age their medicine levels typically need to be changed.  Often, as in the case of blood pressure, and blood sugar reduction, they should be reduced to avoid inducing falls (Nov 2015).  
  • Patients with chronic diseases, such as type 2 diabetes, often require different treatment settings.  And again these vary with age. 
  • Patients who have learned a regime, and been told it was successful, may resist instructions to change it.  Some worry that they will impact their health care provider's treatment performance measures. 
.  Health care's large cost increases are passed through by:
The maximum life expectancy is a measure of the average life time of a new born baby.  Without public health assistance many children die in the first five years of life significantly lowering the life expectancy of the whole group.  There are representational and data capture problems with the model:
  • Not knowing the risk of dying in the newborn's future, demographers use the risks present at that time to predict impacts in the future of the person.  No adjustment can be made for increased wellbeing. 
  • Saving the lives of children has a far larger effect on increasing life expectancy than extending the lives of the elderly
  • Impacts that occur in a particular year, such as a epidemic or pandemic, are treated as permanent effects for that years life expectancy even though they may be handled by public health strategies and hence be transients.  For life expectancy calculations in subsequent years the impact is ignored.  
  • Programs that reduced the impacts of infectious diseases, such as antibiotics and vaccine deployment, have reduced the variability of life expectancy following their introduction.  
  • Vital registration systems gather accurate data for life expectancy.  But most countries do not have the infrastructure and instead estimates are generated from demographic and health surveys. 
of women has increased every four years since 1840. 

A highly connected world has more risk of pandemic diseases.  China, the Roman Empire and Columbia have all suffered from plague as a consequence.  British ships transferred Cholera from India to Europe and railways then catalyzed Cholera's spread across America.  

And the world's trade infrastructure has distributed toxins, such as tobacco, broadly and empowered and enforced patents on expensive drug treatments. 

Deaton notes conversely, that
Salman Khan argues that the evolved global education system is inefficient and organized around constraining and corralling students into accepting dubious ratings that lead to mundane roles.  He highlights a radical and already proven alternative which offers effective self-paced deep learning processes supported by technology and freed up attention of teams of teachers.  Building on his personal experience of helping overcome the unjustified failing grade of a relative Khan:
  • Iteratively learns how to teach: Starting with Nadia, Leveraging short videos focused on content, Converging on mastery, With the help of neuroscience, and filling in dependent gaps; resulting in a different approach to the mainstream method. 
  • Assesses the broken US education system: Set in its ways, Designed for the 1800s, Inducing holes that are hidden by tests, Tests which ignore creativity.  The resulting teaching process is so inefficient it needs to be supplemented with homework.  Instead teachers were encouraging their pupils to use his tools at home so they could mentor them while they attended school, an inversion that significantly improves the economics. 
  • Enters the real world: Builds a scalable service, Working with a real classroom, Trying stealth learning, At Khan Academy full time,  In the curriculum at Los Altos, Supporting life-long learning. 
  • Develops The One World Schoolhouse: Back to the future with a one room school, a robust teaching team, and creativity enabled; so with some catalysis even the poorest can become educated and earn credentials for current jobs. 
  • Wishes he could also correct: Summer holidays, Transcript based assessments, College education;
  • Concludes it is now possible to provide the infrastructure for creativity to emerge and to support risk taking. 

Following our summary of his arguments RSS frames them from the perspective of complex adaptive system (CAS) theory.  Disruption is a powerful force for change but if its force is used to support the current teachers to adopt new processes can it overcome the extended phenotypic alignment and evolutionary amplifiers sustaining the current educational network? 

education
and knowledge of effective strategies to counter acute disease also travelled along the global infrastructure.  For example:

Material wellbeing in the US 
In the 1700s most material inequality was within country, between Aristocracy and common people.  Inequality can:
  • Incentivize change
  • Undercut material improvement

In 1750 Britain lead other countries in the world in increasing longevity.  Later there were increases in living standards and wealth is schematically useful information and its equivalent, schematically useful energy, to paraphrase Beinhocker.  It is useful because an agent has schematic strategies that can utilize the information or energy to extend or leverage control of the cognitive niche.  
.  Income inequality has not shrunk in comparison to increases in longevity.  By 2000 the biggest inequality gaps were between countries. 

The ideas of the enlightenment and scientific revolution contributed to economic growth.  Growth supported better living standards and a reduction in poverty.  The average income of the world's population increased seven to eight fold from 1820 to 1992. 
At the same time the percentage of people in extreme poverty across the world fell:
  • 1820 84%
  • 1992 24%
Economic growth in the USA
The US is the United States of America.   GDP is:
  • Gross domestic product which measures the total of goods and services produced in a given year within the borders of a given country according to Piketty.  GDP has many problems:
    • GDP is a poor measure of:
      • Value & wealth
      • Who gets what
    • GDP excludes:
      • Services by house makers
      • Leisure
    • GDP includes items that should be excluded:
      • Cost of waste - cleaning up pollution, building prisons, commuting to work;
  • Guanine-di-phosphate is a nucleotide base. 
(real income) has grown fivefold between 1929 and 2012.  But GDP is a weak measure of wellbeing is described by Angus Deaton as all the things that are good for a person:
  • Material wellbeing includes income and wealth and its measures: GDP, personal income and consumption.  It can be traded for goods and services which recapture time.  Material wellbeing depends on investments in:
    • Infrastructure
      • Physical
      • Property rights, contracts and dispute resolution
    • People and their education
    • Capturing of basic knowledge via science.  
    • Engineering to turn science into goods and services and then continuously improve them. 
  • Physical and psychological wellbeing are represented by health and happiness; and education and the ability to participate in civil society through democracy and the rule of law.  Life expectancy as a measure of population health, highly weights reductions in child mortality. 
or income.  Personal disposable income levels are associated with GDP and indicate material wellbeing.  But the amount people save in the US has been dropping over time.  Americans spent money on:
  • Goods: 1/3 on: Motor cars, Electronics, Furniture; 2/3 on food and clothing; 7.5% of the budget is food or 13% if include eating out. 
  • Services: Housing (18%), Utilities (18%), Health care (16%); 
Services are difficult to measure and the GDP may be missing real value.  The national accounts reflect the cost of healthcare but not its value. 

In a significant change from the past, between 1950 and 2012 there was 1.9% growth every year - a near straight line with reducing variability.  There have been two notable dips: 1933 depression and 2008 recession.  And between 2000 and 2012 GDP growth has started to slow. 

The stock of wealth is schematically useful information and its equivalent, schematically useful energy, to paraphrase Beinhocker.  It is useful because an agent has schematic strategies that can utilize the information or energy to extend or leverage control of the cognitive niche.  
in the US has changed significantly between 1950 and 2012.  Many Americans lost half their wealth in the 2008 recession.  15% of the population is poor is based on the Johnson War on Poverty valuation of $3000 as the relative needed income.  It was justified using Mollie Orshansky's modelling of the price of food to limit hunger.  It was adopted as an official US poverty line in August 1969 and has remained unchanged except for adjustments for price inflation.   and the fraction of people in poverty may be increasing.  It's mainly African Americans and Hispanics.  The elderly have been helped by Social Security is the social securities act of 1935 was part of the second New Deal.  It attempted to limit risks of old age, poverty and unemployment.  It is funded through payroll taxes via FICA and SECA into the social security trust funds.  Title IV of the original SSA created what became the AFDC.  The Social Security Administration controls the OASI and DI trust funds.  The funds are administered by the trustees.  The SSA was amended in 1965 to include:
  • Title V is Maternal and child health services. 
  • Title XVIII is Medicare.  
.  The numbers of poor were dropping until 1970 and then flat.  But the statistical assessments make the data unpredictable:
Never-the-less Deaton concluded that the poor did not benefit from post 1970 US growth and the poverty line is based on the Johnson War on Poverty valuation of $3000 as the relative needed income.  It was justified using Mollie Orshansky's modelling of the price of food to limit hunger.  It was adopted as an official US poverty line in August 1969 and has remained unchanged except for adjustments for price inflation.   should be raised.  The poverty line was meant to be a relative tool but has been applied absolutely and acts as a trap keeping the poor from participating fully in society. 

The distribution of incomes in the USA
Deaton argues there are three ways to view the evolution of income:
  1. Poverty - The bottom of the wage pyramid includes single families living with chaos and likely to be in poverty. 
  2. Growth
  3. Inequality - The Gini coefficient represents inequality of a nation's residents.  It is a measure of statistical dispersion around the average income ranging between being totally equal (0) and totally unequal (1).  For the US the Gini was close to constant from 1945 to 1975 and has grown since then as average income has grown while the lowest incomes have stagnated. 
    indicates average incomes have grown while the bottom incomes have stagnated.  All families benefited from increased prosperity until 1978 to 1980, when government policy on pensions, taxes and health care changed.  Subsequently inequality has widened:

Globalization and the Greatest Escape
Rapid economic growth in many countries has rescued hundreds of millions of people from destitution.  Asian countries moved into the developing middle leaving African countries behind.  The Asian tigers, China and India have grown at huge rates.  But Deaton notes there have been people left behind during each of these advances and the spread is as wide as ever. 

Mortality is falling which has resulted in a population explosion as global poverty has fallen.  Deaton argues the seven billion that benefited from growth have on average better lives than their parents and grandparents had. 

Deaton admits that measuring what is happening across the world is difficult.  Even income estimates are a challenge.  Deaton explains how comparison of incomes involves far from perfect PPP exchange rate is purchasing power parity exchange rate which is the exchange rate between two currencies that would purchase the same goods in each country.  In a poorer country the cost of land and labor is less pulling down the cost of local goods so the PPP is less than the foreign exchange rate.  Teams of researchers must look at local cost of goods and build up statistics across many countries.  But there are problems:
  • Angus Deaton's Marmite problem illustrates that two similar countries: US -- which is little interested in Marmite and must import it from the UK making it expensive in the US, and UK -- where many people eat Marmite and it is manufactured and distributed in bulk and so is cheap, will have a distorted PPP if Marmite is included in the pricing statistics. 
  • Different countries offer logically equivalent goods but differing in quality and functional characteristics.  They could be matched in the PPP basket but it would be misleading. 
  • PPP is costly to assess so the work is performed sporadically: 1985, 1993, 2005 & 2011; and not all countries participate every time. 
currency is legal tender which provides no interest payments to the holder.  It is a central aspect of money and in CAS is an analog of a short term potential energy token such as the high energy phosphate bond of the base ATP.  But the interaction of the geometric breeding and deaths of agents that perform actions and the linear increase in real resources, described by Turchin, results in the correspondence between energy and currency being complex and adaptive. 
conversions.  Trying to compare very different economies is thus error prone.  That undermines comparisons of the US is the United States of America.   and China for example, making growth comparisons questionable. 

The PPP based comparison of the 21 wealthy is schematically useful information and its equivalent, schematically useful energy, to paraphrase Beinhocker.  It is useful because an agent has schematic strategies that can utilize the information or energy to extend or leverage control of the cognitive niche.  
countries is more accurate since they are quite similar.  During the 1960s 4% growth rates reflected continued rebuilding following World War 2.  But subsequently growth depended on innovation is the economic realization of invention and combinatorial exaptation. 
to stimulate sales of new products and improved products and so in the 1970s growth started to slow.  Globalization started in the 1980s which leveraged network effects to increase growth again.  Services were performed where they would be cheapest.  The internationalization reduced the disparity between European nations. 

Global Growth
Deaton then tries to compare globally rich and poor nations anyway.  He suggests the poor nations don't catch up.  And he concludes it is because of the poor countries lack of required institutions:
The poor countries growth has been uneven: 
  • China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand have grown at 4% per year.  The US is the United States of America.   has invested in many of them to suppress communism. 
  • India has been growing steadily but more slowly. 
  • Haiti and Congo are both shrinking. 

Growth, Health, and the Population Explosion
Public health improvements have resulted in a population explosion.  It was feared that this would have dire consequences:
  • Could all the people be fed?  Would there be a tragedy of the commons induced? 
  • Would the young males become frustrated and join revolutionary movements? 
Deaton notes Julian Simon's view that 'people are the ultimate resource' and that

Global Poverty
In 1975 the US is the United States of America.   started to disintermediate is the shift of operations from one network provider to another lower cost connected network provider.  The first network provider leverages the cost benefits of the shift to increase its profitability but becomes disrupted.  The lower cost network provider gains revenue flows, expertise and increases its active agents.  Over time this disruptive shift will leave the higher cost network as a highly profitable shell, but the agents that performed the operations that migrated to the low cost network will be ejected from the network.  For a company that may imply the costs of layoffs.  For a state the ejected workers imply increased cost impacts and reduced revenue potential which the state are trading off for improved operating efficiency. 
with resulting benefits in income growth in Japan and then later China and India -- Deaton's great escape. 

He warns that for most countries the poverty line is based on the Johnson War on Poverty valuation of $3000 as the relative needed income.  It was justified using Mollie Orshansky's modelling of the price of food to limit hunger.  It was adopted as an official US poverty line in August 1969 and has remained unchanged except for adjustments for price inflation.   is a central planning abstraction set by an external committee for the World Bank was setup as part of the Bretton Woods agreements, as the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, to repair and reconstruct Europe after the Second World War and provide reconstruction and development resources for projects in developing economies.
.  As such they lack legitimacy in country.  $1.25 a day can build a case that global poverty went from 1.5 billon people in 1981 to 805 million in 2008 even as the population of the world exploded.  The drop comes from the increasing wealth is schematically useful information and its equivalent, schematically useful energy, to paraphrase Beinhocker.  It is useful because an agent has schematic strategies that can utilize the information or energy to extend or leverage control of the cognitive niche.  
in China.  But even if true this success highlights the failure in Sub Saharan Africa.  And the potential error levels in the poverty line have real effects on decisions by NGO is non governmental organization.  s. 
Deaton notes that the fertility rate did not drop in Sub Saharan Africa. 

Deaton writes that calculated national growth rates are higher than individual families within country reports and the difference between the two types of measure is expanding.  In part this is because with so many people near the poverty line a slight change in its value moves large numbers of people's status.  The poverty map can't be trusted. 

Global income inequality
As China and India grow they are reducing global income inequality but not for everyone there.  Cities are doing better in China and the rich are gaining in share.  And in the past few decades many rich countries, including the US is the United States of America.  , income inequality is increasing. 

Deaton notes that the world lacks a global tax and redistribution mechanism. 

How to Help Those Left Behind
A billion people live in destitution.  Rich countries provide foreign aid.  Deaton asks was it helpful?  No! But he has some suggestions about what we can do

Material Aid and Global Poverty
A quarter of a billion dollars of aid should raise the destitute out of poverty.  That is less than a third of a dollar per adult in the US is the United States of America.   each day.  But Deaton warns it would not work.  Giving money just makes the situation worse.  That is because this is a
This page introduces the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory frame.  The theory is positioned relative to the natural sciences.  It catalogs the laws and strategies which underpin the operation of systems that are based on the interaction of emergent agents. 
John Holland's framework for representing complexity is outlined.  Links to other key aspects of CAS theory discussed at the site are presented. 
CAS
, not an engineering problem.  The conditions necessary for development is a phase during the operation of a CAS agent.  It allows for schematic strategies to be iteratively blended with environmental signals to solve the logistical issues of migrating newly built and transformed sub-agents.  That is needed to achieve the adult configuration of the agent and optimize it for the proximate environment.  Smiley includes examples of the developmental phase agents required in an emergent CAS.  In situations where parents invest in the growth and memetic learning of their offspring the schematic grab bag can support optimizations to develop models, structures and actions to construct an adept adult.  In humans, adolescence leverages neural plasticity, elder sibling advice and adult coaching to help prepare the deploying neuronal network and body to successfully compete. 
do not exist in the:
  • Institutions
  • Governments
  • Politics
Facts about Aid
Most aid is:
  • Country to country
  • Conditional
  • In donor's domestic and international interests
  • Maintaining the donor countries interests in the recipient country
  • Used by the recipient government to implement aid based on its goals. 
The largest component of foreign aid is $133 billion of ODA is either
  • The orphan drug act of 1983 which aims to facilitate development of drugs for rare diseases.  The F.D.A. ensures that qualifying manufacturers obtain reduced costs of some parts of the testing process, and has tax incentives, enhanced patent protection, clinical research subsidies and support of a GSE to do research and development.  or
  • Official development assistance, funds donated by rich country governments to poor countries.  ODA is measured by the OECD's DAC. 
given by 23 donor countries.  At the end of the cold war ODA reduced.  But since 1997 it has increased again by 50%.  The cumulative aid total since 1960 is $5 trillion in 2009 prices. 

The largest donors of aid are the USA is the United States of America.  , Germany, Britain, France and Japan, although the Scandinavians, Dutch and Luxembourgers give a larger proportion of their national income.  Deaton is scathing about the whole process:
Trade agreements are more influential than ODA.  But they may not be beneficial either due to constraints on trade etc. 

How Effective is Aid?
Deaton asks do countries that get more aid grow faster.  He argues they do not.  Small countries get more aid but they grow less than India or China.  Deaton explains:
  • Countries favored by the aid process: Ex colonies, Egypt (due to Camp David accord), Zaire (puppet dictator); won't focus on poverty reduction.  Instead the aid is captured by the power elite and used for their own purposes. 
  • Africa gets most of the aid and its growth has decreased steadily while aid increased steadily. 
  • When aid fell after the end of the cold war growth picked up!
  • Commodity prices influence African growth.  Their growth is dependent on raw commodity and crop sales.  Price volatility affects these markets.  That creates opportunities to mismanage debt.  Aid is used to finance the debts during bad years.  Deaton comments that investment for machines etc. would help growth more. 

The Effectiveness of Development Projects
The difficulties of measuring aid and aligning the delivery system incentives with the needs of the poor have led some to propose project based aid funding and delivery.  But Deaton argues its no more effective at solving the issues because:

Aid & Politics
Deaton stresses that large inflows of aid alter the local political processes detrimentally:

Is Health Aid Different?
Millions have been saved by vertical health programs:
But many children are still dying due to failures of horizontal health programs and aid for poverty.  Horizontal health programs leverage the primary health care infrastructure.  If that is poor it will become overloaded or may even be raided to staff the health program.  Any funding for primary healthcare may well be allocated to fund hospitals for the wealthy is schematically useful information and its equivalent, schematically useful energy, to paraphrase Beinhocker.  It is useful because an agent has schematic strategies that can utilize the information or energy to extend or leverage control of the cognitive niche.  

What Should We Do?
Deaton proposes that the rich countries get out of the way and let the poor countries follow in their footsteps.  He argues that:

Postscript: What Comes Next?
Deaton notes there are threats to escape: climate change, wars, pandemics and antibiotic resistance, disintermediation is the shift of operations from one network provider to another lower cost connected network provider.  The first network provider leverages the cost benefits of the shift to increase its profitability but becomes disrupted.  The lower cost network provider gains revenue flows, expertise and increases its active agents.  Over time this disruptive shift will leave the higher cost network as a highly profitable shell, but the agents that performed the operations that migrated to the low cost network will be ejected from the network.  For a company that may imply the costs of layoffs.  For a state the ejected workers imply increased cost impacts and reduced revenue potential which the state are trading off for improved operating efficiency. 
, wealth is schematically useful information and its equivalent, schematically useful energy, to paraphrase Beinhocker.  It is useful because an agent has schematic strategies that can utilize the information or energy to extend or leverage control of the cognitive niche.  
concentration and the slowdown in growth. 
He says he is optimistic because:



This page introduces the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory frame.  The theory is positioned relative to the natural sciences.  It catalogs the laws and strategies which underpin the operation of systems that are based on the interaction of emergent agents. 
John Holland's framework for representing complexity is outlined.  Links to other key aspects of CAS theory discussed at the site are presented. 
CAS theory
views the development is a phase during the operation of a CAS agent.  It allows for schematic strategies to be iteratively blended with environmental signals to solve the logistical issues of migrating newly built and transformed sub-agents.  That is needed to achieve the adult configuration of the agent and optimize it for the proximate environment.  Smiley includes examples of the developmental phase agents required in an emergent CAS.  In situations where parents invest in the growth and memetic learning of their offspring the schematic grab bag can support optimizations to develop models, structures and actions to construct an adept adult.  In humans, adolescence leverages neural plasticity, elder sibling advice and adult coaching to help prepare the deploying neuronal network and body to successfully compete. 
of a
The complex adaptive system (CAS) nature of a value delivery system is first introduced.  It's a network of agents acting as relays. 

The critical nature of hub agents and the difficulty of altering an aligned network is reviewed. 

The nature of and exceptional opportunities created by platforms are discussed. 

Finally an example of aligning a VDS is presented. 
value delivery system
as a strategic process supported by
This page reviews the inhibiting effect of the value delivery system on the expression of new phenotypic effects within an agent. 
extended phenotypic alignment
.  The resulting network is susceptible to
This page reviews Christensen's disruption of a complex adaptive system (CAS).  The mechanism is discussed with examples from biology and business. 
disruption


Deaton's progressive process corresponds exactly with the globalization from American cotton described by Sven Beckert.  The progress was powered by the fossil fuel
This page reviews the catalytic impact of infrastructure on the expression of phenotypic effects by an agent.  The infrastructure reduces the cost the agent must pay to perform the selected action.  The catalysis is enhanced by positive returns. 
infrastructure amplifier


The enlightenment built on the
This page reviews Christensen's disruption of a complex adaptive system (CAS).  The mechanism is discussed with examples from biology and business. 
disruptive
rediscovery of the
Plans emerge in complex adaptive systems (CAS) to provide the instructions that agents use to perform actions.  The component architecture and structure of the plans is reviewed. 
schematic meme
"
An epistatic meme suppressed for a thousand years reemerges during the enlightenment. 
It was a poem encapsulating the ideas of Epicurus rediscovered by a humanist book hunter. 
Greenblatt describes the process of suppression and reemergence.  He argues that the rediscovery was the foundation of the modern world. 
Complex adaptive system (CAS) models of the memetic mechanisms are discussed. 

on the nature of things
" and the reaction to the
Terrence Deacon explores how constraints on dynamic flows can induce emergent phenomena which can do real work.  He shows how these phenomena are sustained.  The mechanism enables the development of Darwinian competition. 
constraints
and corruption of the middle ages to encourage
David Bodanis illustrates how disruptive effects can take hold.  While the French revolution had many driving forces including famine and oppression the emergence of a new philosophical vision ensured that thoughtful leaders were constrained and conflicted in their responses to the crisis. 
individual creativity and scientific discovery


President Nixon's heavily funded War on Cancer resulted in the
This page discusses the benefits of bringing agents and resources to the dynamically best connected region of a complex adaptive system (CAS). 
centralization of a network of scientists
investigating the potential causes of cancer is the out-of-control growth of cells, which have stopped obeying their cooperative schematic planning and signalling infrastructure.  It results from compounded: oncogene, tumor suppressor, DNA caretaker; mutations in the DNA.  In 2010 one third of Americans are likely to die of cancer.  Cell division rates did not predict likelihood of cancer.  Viral infections are associated.  Radiation and carcinogen exposure are associated.  Lifestyle impacts the likelihood of cancer occurring: Drinking alcohol to excess, lack of exercise, Obesity, Smoking, More sun than your evolved melanin protection level; all significantly increase the risk of cancer occurring (Jul 2016).  .  The possibility of viral induction resulted in a focus on the family of viruses to which HIV is human immunodeficiency virus, an RNA retrovirus which causes AIDS.  It infects T-lymphocytes destroying the host's immune system. 
belongs supporting effective modelling, analysis and identification of AIDS's cause and its potential treatments. 

The pre-industrial world
Peter Turchin describes how major pre-industrial empires developed due to effects of geographic boundaries constraining the empires and their neighbors' interactions.  Turchin shows how the asymmetries of breeding rates and resource growth rates results in dynamic cycles within cycles.  After the summary of Turchin's book complex adaptive system (CAS) theory is used to augment Turchins findings. 
operated within
a set of geographically constrained roles and Malthusian, Thomas Robert Malthus was an English cleric and scholar.  He described the geometrical expansion of populations supported by sufficient resources and the population's subsequent collapse as the land used to grow the resources became fully deployed. 
cycles described by Peter Turchin.  It was a Machiavellian world sustained by the efficiency of plant's capturing the Sun's energy.  Humanity could use
Matt Ridley demonstrates the creative effect of man on the World. He highlights:
  • A list of preconditions resulting in
  • Additional niche capture & more free time 
  • Building a network to interconnect memes processes & tools which
  • Enabling inter-generational transfers
  • Innovations that help reduce environmental stress even as they leverage fossil fuels

cooperative trading networks
to gain time to invest in their children and other strategic goals.  During the downward parts of each Malthusian cycle grinding poverty would accompany death for those who chose to remain in their overpopulated homelands.  But during the upward phase the population would enjoy relative abundance. 

The
Tools and the businesses that produce them have evolved dramatically.  W Brian Arthur shows how this occurred.
industrial
and
Brynjolfsson and McAfee explore the effects of Moore's law on the economy.  They argue it has generated exponential growth.  This has been due to innovation.  It has created a huge bounty of additional wealth.  But the wealth is spread unevenly across society.  They look at the short and long term implications of the innovation bounty and spread and the possible future of technology. 

Following our summary of their arguments RSS comments from the perspective of CAS theory. 

post-industrial
world is shaped by positive return economics.  For the native populations, genocidally removed from the mines and plantations, and the slaves, or as they later became, share croppers trapped by debt to labor at supplying raw materials and crops at minimal cost to the global value delivery system there seems no benefit in the 'great escape'.  The economic and proxy-war driven collapse of the Soviet block resulted in wealth is schematically useful information and its equivalent, schematically useful energy, to paraphrase Beinhocker.  It is useful because an agent has schematic strategies that can utilize the information or energy to extend or leverage control of the cognitive niche.  
being extracted by both the Western network and Communist power brokers, leaving the old infrastructure and those dependent on it
This page reviews Christensen's disruption of a complex adaptive system (CAS).  The mechanism is discussed with examples from biology and business. 
disrupted


Deaton's model of a hunter gatherer is limited by the forcing of present day hunter gatherer groups to niche geographic areas with limited value to the
Peter Turchin describes how major pre-industrial empires developed due to effects of geographic boundaries constraining the empires and their neighbors' interactions.  Turchin shows how the asymmetries of breeding rates and resource growth rates results in dynamic cycles within cycles.  After the summary of Turchin's book complex adaptive system (CAS) theory is used to augment Turchins findings. 
farming and pastoral competitors
described by Turchin.  Man's
E. O. Wilson & Bert Holldobler illustrate how bundled cooperative strategies can take hold.  Various social insects have developed strategies which have allowed them to capture the most valuable available niches.  Like humans they invest in specialization and cooperate to subdue larger, well equipped competitors. 
cultural superorganism
capabilities ensure that both beetle (hunter gatherer bands of equals) and ant colony (farmer and pastoral) like strategies
Matt Ridley demonstrates the creative effect of man on the World. He highlights:
  • A list of preconditions resulting in
  • Additional niche capture & more free time 
  • Building a network to interconnect memes processes & tools which
  • Enabling inter-generational transfers
  • Innovations that help reduce environmental stress even as they leverage fossil fuels

can be followed
and specialists including leaders aims to develop plans and strategies which ensure effective coordination to improve the common good of the in-group.  John Adair developed a leadership methodology based on the three-circles model. 
and soldiers would be present if beneficial.  With the long period of hunter gatherer existence in the African savanna is the environment where hunter-gatherers primarily evolved.  Its grassland supported large herbivores that could be hunted.  Clumps of trees & rocks supported places to hide from large carnivores.  Streams and paths add to the signals enabling orientation. 
,
This page reviews the implications of selection, variation and heredity in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  The mechanism and its emergence are discussed. 
evolution
developed responses to
In this page we summarize the arms race between hosts and their parasites.  The deadly nature and adaptive pressure of the relationship is introduced.  How the slowly reproducing hosts cope is described.  Cultural hosts and parasites are discussed. 

parasitic infections


The enlightenment's reintroduction of the ideas of Epicurus enabled change and improvement.  The agricultural revolution caused complex changes in the nineteenth century ecosystem, even riding the UK of Malaria.  Deacon's reinforcing changes in: Needs, Technical innovations is the economic realization of invention and combinatorial exaptation. 
and Political transitions; are demonstrated in England during the industrial revolution. 

The reduction in the number of children per family has changed
Gawande uses his personal experience, analytic skills and lots of stories of innovators to demonstrate better ways of coping with aging and death.  He introduces the lack of focus on aging and death in traditional medicine.  And goes on to show how technology has amplified this stress point.  He illustrates the traditional possibility of the independent self, living fully while aging with the support of the extended family.  Central planning responded to the technological and societal changes with poorly designed infrastructure and funding.  But Gawande then contrasts the power of bottom up innovations created by experts responding to their own family situations and belief systems. 

Gawande then explores in depth the challenges that unfold currently as we age and become infirm.  He notes that the world is following the US path.  As such it will have to understand the dilemma of integrating medical treatment and hospice strategies.  He notes that all parties involved need courage to cope. 

He proposes medicine must aim to assure well being.  At that point all doctors will practice palliative care. 

Complex adaptive system (CAS) models of agency, death, evolution, cooperation and adaptations to new technologies are discussed. 

the nature of whole societies
as described by Atul Gawande

Mao's China demonstrates the
H. A. Hayek compares and contrasts collectivism and libertarianism. 
risks of central planning
described by Hayek

During British rule India was viewed as a captive skilled competitor which could be forced to become a market for British goods and a low cost supplier of raw materials.  As this policy pushed the Indian economy to collapse recurring famines is declared when:
  1. One in five households in a specific area face extreme food shortages
  2. More than 30% of the population is acutely malnourished
  3. Two people in 10,000 die each day
became common.  Deaton does not imply that India was always poor but he does not describe the wellbeing is described by Angus Deaton as all the things that are good for a person:
  • Material wellbeing includes income and wealth and its measures: GDP, personal income and consumption.  It can be traded for goods and services which recapture time.  Material wellbeing depends on investments in:
    • Infrastructure
      • Physical
      • Property rights, contracts and dispute resolution
    • People and their education
    • Capturing of basic knowledge via science.  
    • Engineering to turn science into goods and services and then continuously improve them. 
  • Physical and psychological wellbeing are represented by health and happiness; and education and the ability to participate in civil society through democracy and the rule of law.  Life expectancy as a measure of population health, highly weights reductions in child mortality. 
of the relatively wealthy Indian continent prior to the arrival of British gun boats around 1600

Treatments for cancer have a disappointing history described by Siddhartha Mukherjee.  But by 2015 immuno-oncology uses the immune system to treat cancer.  Cancer cells often have different molecules on their cell surface.  Studies have shown that genetic signatures of tumors can help predict which patients will benefit from treatment with PD-1 checkpoint inhibitors.  Checkpoint inhibitor based treatments aim to make the immune system target these antigens.  Clinical trial results indicate they are prolonging lives - even if only by a few months.  They have reduced side effects relative to generic chemo therapy.  There are three main strategies: cellular, antibody and cytokine.  
  • Antibody therapies target receptors including CD20, CD274, CD279 and CTLA-4.  These therapies include MABs: Alemtuzumab, Ofatumumab, Rituximab; and may induce checkpoint inhibition.
  • Cellular therapies have typically involved removing the immune cells from the blood or a tumor, activating, culturing and then returning them to the patient.  Trials of these CAR and TCR therapies are proceeding, with some significant problems (Jul 2016). 
  • Cytokine therapies enhance anti-tumor activity through the cytokine's regulation and coordination of the immune system. 
  • Vaccines, including Sipuleucel-T for prostate cancer and BCG, classically a vaccine for tuberculosis, which is used for treating bladder cancer. 
therapies and biologics are drugs made in living cells.  Typically they are proteins developed using genetic engineering to develop the cellular host, and to customize animal source, DNA to produce human target proteins.  Biologics solve the problem of previous protein sources, extracted from animals or human sources, of contamination and immune responses.  The strategy is very effective for blood transported proteins such as antibodies, hormones and blood factors.  But intra-cellular proteins still demand delivery and accurate cell targeting.  This creates analogous problems to those of gene therapy. 
demonstrate new successful strategies for blocking out-of-control cell differentiation and growth.  But the value based cost model used by the manufacturers in the US and the TPP is the Trans Pacific Partnership, a twelve country, Pacific regional, trade deal between: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States, Vietnam;  The U.S. aims to use the agreement to constrain competition from China.  The initial 12 countries account for more than a quarter of global seafood trade and a quarter of the World's timber and pulp production.  Five of the nations are among the World's most biologically diverse.  The TPP includes:
  • Patents and copyrights chapters. 
  • State-owned businesses chapter. 
  • Investor-state dispute settlement chapter which enforces extrajudicial tribunals for arbitrating disputes.  The tribunals give investors legal recourse if a government changes policies in ways that hurt the value of their investments. 
  • An environmental chapter that covers illegal wildlife trafficking, forestry management, overfishing and marine protection.  Environmentally destructive subsidies, such as cheap fuel for illegal fishing boats and subsidies for boat building in overfished waters are banned.  The chapter enforces Cites with economic sanctions and disallows trade in wildlife taken illegally from a country. 
  • Requirements that member countries strengthen port inspections and document checks. 
  • Requirements that a country in the agreement take action if they discover contraband that has been harvested illegally, even if the product is not illegal in that country. 
Terrence Deacon explores how constraints on dynamic flows can induce emergent phenomena which can do real work.  He shows how these phenomena are sustained.  The mechanism enables the development of Darwinian competition. 
constraints
on biosimilars are generic drugs made to copy biologics.  They could undermine the pharmaceutical industry's biologic profit model and so are subject to trade constraints: TRIPS, TPP. 
suggest inequality is designed and will remain. 
 
Acemoglu's explanation for the unequal distribution of income is
Brynjolfsson and McAfee explore the effects of Moore's law on the economy.  They argue it has generated exponential growth.  This has been due to innovation.  It has created a huge bounty of additional wealth.  But the wealth is spread unevenly across society.  They look at the short and long term implications of the innovation bounty and spread and the possible future of technology. 

Following our summary of their arguments RSS comments from the perspective of CAS theory. 

discussed
by Brynjolfsson and McAfee.  But Piketty shows that the assertion of high rewards for exceptional skills is a smoke screen hiding strategic capture of wealth and income by the power elite.  This point is also emphasized in Charles Ferguson's
Charles Ferguson argues that the US power structure has become highly corrupt. 

Ferguson identifies key events which contributed to the transformation:
  • Junk bonds, 
  • Derivative deregulation, 
  • CMOs, ABS and analyst fraud,
  • Financial network deregulation,
  • Financial network consolidation, 
  • Short term incentives
Subsequently the George W. Bush administration used the situation to build a global bubble, which Wall Street leveraged.  The bursting of the bubble: managed by the Bush Administration and Bernanke Federal Reserve; was advantageous to some. 

Ferguson concludes that the restructured and deregulated financial services industry is damaging to the American economy.  And it is supported by powerful, incentive aligned academics.   He sees the result being a rigged system. 

Ferguson offers his proposals for change and offers hope that a charismatic young FDR will appear. 

Following our summary of his arguments, RSS comments on them framed by complex adaptive system (CAS) theory.  Once the constraints are removed from CAS amplifiers, it becomes advantageous to leverage the increased flows.  And it is often relatively damaging not to participate.  Corruption and parasitism can become entrenched. 

Predator Nation
.  The power relations of the prince, aristocracy and commons have not changed significantly since they were described in Machiavelli's The Prince.  America's increasingly powerful elite must decide if they will ever again depend on the coherent actions of the majority of the nation.  This complex question is discussed by
Peter Turchin describes how major pre-industrial empires developed due to effects of geographic boundaries constraining the empires and their neighbors' interactions.  Turchin shows how the asymmetries of breeding rates and resource growth rates results in dynamic cycles within cycles.  After the summary of Turchin's book complex adaptive system (CAS) theory is used to augment Turchins findings. 
Turchin


With the situation becoming more difficult for the poor in many countries, including the US, chronic health problems are likely to result from the additional stress is a multi-faceted condition reflecting high cortisol levels.  Dr. Robert Sapolsky's studies of baboons indicate that stress helps build readiness for fight or flight.  As these actions occur the levels of cortisol return to the baseline rate.  A stressor is anything that disrupts the regular homeostatic balance.  The stress response is the array of neural and endocrine changes that occur to respond effectively to the crisis and reestablish homeostasis. 
  • The short term response to the stressor
    • activates the amygdala which: Stimulates the brain stem resulting in inhibition of the parasympathetic nervous system and activation of the sympathetic nervous system with the hormones epinephrine and norepinephrine deployed around the body, Activates the PVN which generates a cascade resulting in glucocorticoid secretion to: get energy to the muscles with increased blood pressure for a powerful response.  The brain's acuity and cognition are stimulated.  The immune system is stimulated with beta-endorphin and repair activities curtail.  But when the stressor is
  • long term: loneliness, debt; and no action is necessary, or possible, long term damage ensues.  Damage from such stress may only occur in specific situations: Nuclear families coping with parents moving in.  Sustained stress provides an evolved amplifier of a position of dominance and status.  It is a strategy in female aggression used to limit reproductive competition.  Sustained stress:
    • Stops the frontal cortex from ensuring we do the harder thing, instead substituting amplification of the individual's propensity for risk-taking and impairing risk assessment! 
    • Activates the integration between the thalamus and amygdala. 
      • Acts differently on the amygdala in comparison to the frontal cortex and hippocampus: Stress strengthens the integration between the Amygdala and the hippocampus, making the hippocampus fearful. 
      • BLA & BNST respond with increased BDNF levels and expanded dendrites persistently increasing anxiety and fear conditioning. 
    • Makes it easier to learn a fear association and to consolidate it into long-term memory.  Sustained stress makes it harder to unlearn fear by making the prefrontal cortex inhibit the BLA from learning to break the fear association and weakening the prefrontal cortex's hold over the amygdala.  And glucocorticoids decrease activation of the medial prefrontal cortex during processing of emotional faces.  Accuracy of assessing emotions from faces suffers.  A terrified rat generating lots of glucocorticoids will cause dendrites in the hippocampus to atrophy but when it generates the same amount from excitement of running on a wheel the dendrites expand.  The activation of the amygdala seems to determine how the hippocampus responds. 
    • Depletes the nucleus accumbens of dopamine biasing rats toward social subordination and biasing humans toward depression. 
    • Disrupts working memory by amplifying norepinephrine signalling in the prefrontal cortex and amygdala to prefrontal cortex signalling until they become destructive.  It also desynchronizes activation in different frontal lobe regions impacting shifting of attention. 
  • During depression, stress inhibits dopamine signalling. 
  • Strategies for stress reduction include: Mindfulness. 
(Nov 2015, Jan 2017, Jun 2017). 

Deaton's argument that poor nations that lack institutions can't leverage global growth makes sense.  But
This page reviews the inhibiting effect of the value delivery system on the expression of new phenotypic effects within an agent. 
extended phenotypic alignment
will also tend to undermine attempts to alter an operational value delivery network.  And there are also
H. A. Hayek compares and contrasts collectivism and libertarianism. 
strategic constraints at work
ensuring that the key institutions are missing or not funded.  This is illustrated in current US public
Salman Khan argues that the evolved global education system is inefficient and organized around constraining and corralling students into accepting dubious ratings that lead to mundane roles.  He highlights a radical and already proven alternative which offers effective self-paced deep learning processes supported by technology and freed up attention of teams of teachers.  Building on his personal experience of helping overcome the unjustified failing grade of a relative Khan:
  • Iteratively learns how to teach: Starting with Nadia, Leveraging short videos focused on content, Converging on mastery, With the help of neuroscience, and filling in dependent gaps; resulting in a different approach to the mainstream method. 
  • Assesses the broken US education system: Set in its ways, Designed for the 1800s, Inducing holes that are hidden by tests, Tests which ignore creativity.  The resulting teaching process is so inefficient it needs to be supplemented with homework.  Instead teachers were encouraging their pupils to use his tools at home so they could mentor them while they attended school, an inversion that significantly improves the economics. 
  • Enters the real world: Builds a scalable service, Working with a real classroom, Trying stealth learning, At Khan Academy full time,  In the curriculum at Los Altos, Supporting life-long learning. 
  • Develops The One World Schoolhouse: Back to the future with a one room school, a robust teaching team, and creativity enabled; so with some catalysis even the poorest can become educated and earn credentials for current jobs. 
  • Wishes he could also correct: Summer holidays, Transcript based assessments, College education;
  • Concludes it is now possible to provide the infrastructure for creativity to emerge and to support risk taking. 

Following our summary of his arguments RSS frames them from the perspective of complex adaptive system (CAS) theory.  Disruption is a powerful force for change but if its force is used to support the current teachers to adopt new processes can it overcome the extended phenotypic alignment and evolutionary amplifiers sustaining the current educational network? 

education
policy: ESEA is the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965 signed by LBJ.  It is the framework later used to develop 'No child left behind'.  ESEA's original titles include:
  1. Provides funding to local school districts to improve the academic achievement of disadvantaged students.  The original authors worried that local and state authorities might use the federal money to replace rather than supplement their budgets to poor schools.  When this was found to be the case Congress amended the act in 1970 requiring districts to spend Title 1 dollars on additional education for poor children (supplement), above and beyond what they already received from other sources (not supplant). 
  2. Preparing, training and recruiting high quality teachers and principals
  3. Language instruction for limited English proficient and immigrant students
  4. Educational research and training
  5. Grants to strengthen state departments of education
  6. Aid to handicapped children
title 1 funding allocation responses (May 2016).  Historically it has been judged less risky to support a dictatorship that:
  • Is incented to align with the first world's needs. 
  • Administers through a minority to control the majority. 
Such a strategy is easier and cheaper than to deal with unpredictable democratic governments. 


Singapore's national goals and its public health plans have been discussed by William Haseltine.  The niche competitive strategy that sustains Singapore's first world lifestyle also helps the nation respond coherently to its public health is the proactive planning, coordination and execution of strategies to improve and safeguard the wellbeing of the public.  Its global situation is discussed in The Great Escape by Deaton.  Public health in the US is coordinated by the PHS federally but is mainly executed at the state and local levels.  Public health includes:
  • Awareness campaigns about health threatening activities including: Smoking, Over-eating, Alcohol consumption, Contamination with poisons, Joint damage from over-exercise;
  • Research, monitoring and control of disease agents, processes and vectors by agencies including the CDC. 
  • Monitoring of the public's health by institutes including the NIH.  
  • Development, deployment and maintenance of infrastructure including: sewers, water plants and pipes.  
  • Development, deployment and maintenance of vaccination strategies. 
  • Regulation and constraint of foods, drugs and devices by agencies including the FDA. 
requirements. 

Haiti
This page discusses the mechanisms and effects of emergence underpinning any complex adaptive system (CAS).  Key research is reviewed. 
emerged
from the
This page discusses the effect of the network on the agents participating in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  Small world and scale free networks are considered. 
network
of slave plantations in the West Indies after the revolt described by Beckert.  But as a revolutionary black nation Haiti was excluded from the developing global supply chain.  Haiti is discussed by Jared Diamond in Collapse.  He explains that Haiti's democracy enabled massive over population undermining pools of otherwise renewable resources, such as trees, which have left Haiti in a poverty trap.  Unable to escape, the nation does not have the resources to
This page discusses the benefits of proactively strengthening strong points. 
prophylatically
prepare for additional problems, including the massive 2010 earth quake and subsequent cholera epidemic is the rapid spread of infectious disease: AIDS (Oct 2016), Cholera (2010), Clostridium difficile (May 2015), Ebola, Influenza, Polio, SARS, Tuberculosis, Typhoid, Malaria, Yellow fever, Zika; to large numbers of people in a population within a short period of time -- two weeks or less.  Epidemics are studied and monitored by: NIAID, CDC, WHO; but are managed by states in the US.  Infection control escalation is supported by biocontainment units: Emory, Nebraska.  Once memes are included in the set of infectious schematic materials, human addictions can present as epidemics concludes Dr. Nora Volkow of the NIDA.  CEPI aims to ensure public health networks are effectively prepared for epidemics.  PHCPI aims to strengthen PCPs globally to improve responsiveness to epidemics.  GAVI helps catalyze the development and deployment of vaccines.  Sporadic investment in public health enables development of conditions for vector development: Mosquitos.  The increasing demands of the global population are altering the planet: Climate change is shifting mosquito bases, Forests are being invaded bringing wildlife and their diseases in contact with human networks.  Globalized travel acts as an infection amplifier: Ebola to Texas.  Health clinics have also acted as amplifiers: AIDS in Haiti, C. diff & MRSA infections enabled & amplified by hospitals.  Haiti earthquake support from the UN similarly introduced Cholera. 


Deaton is optimistic about the global population explosion.  He sees it as the addition of many more motivated contributors to the global innovation network.  But in Collapse Jared Diamond notes that genocidal hotspots have already corresponded with regions where physical resources have been overwhelmed by increasing numbers of well educated, jobless youth.  Additionally E.O. Wilson
E. O. Wilson reviews the effect of man on the natural world to date and explains how the two systems can coexist most effectively. 
describes the demographic bottleneck
that will threaten China's Yangtze & Yellow river basin populations. 

Commodity price volatility has become a powerful control point for the wealthy.  From the end of the American civil war commodity and agricultural price volatility has been used to ensnare share croppers in a cycle of debt entrapment.  During the aftermath of the 2008 recession Greek and Spanish debt was similarly rescheduled, rather than forgiven leaving the wealthy north of Europe and their banks in effective control. 


Deaton outlines the global health and wealth situation.  He illustrates the powerful benefit of public health is the proactive planning, coordination and execution of strategies to improve and safeguard the wellbeing of the public.  Its global situation is discussed in The Great Escape by Deaton.  Public health in the US is coordinated by the PHS federally but is mainly executed at the state and local levels.  Public health includes:
  • Awareness campaigns about health threatening activities including: Smoking, Over-eating, Alcohol consumption, Contamination with poisons, Joint damage from over-exercise;
  • Research, monitoring and control of disease agents, processes and vectors by agencies including the CDC. 
  • Monitoring of the public's health by institutes including the NIH.  
  • Development, deployment and maintenance of infrastructure including: sewers, water plants and pipes.  
  • Development, deployment and maintenance of vaccination strategies. 
  • Regulation and constraint of foods, drugs and devices by agencies including the FDA. 
and the conflicting forces of power politics, wealth and technological advancement on all our lives. 




























































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Market Centric Workshops
The Physics - Politics, Economics & Evolutionary Psychology
Politics, Economics & Evolutionary Psychology

Business Physics
Nature and nurture drive the business eco-system
Human nature
Emerging structure and dynamic forces of adaptation


integrating quality appropriate for each market
 
This page looks at schematic structures and their uses.  It discusses a number of examples:
  • Schematic ideas are recombined in creativity. 
  • Similarly designers take ideas and rules about materials and components and combine them. 
  • Schematic Recipes help to standardize operations. 
  • Modular components are combined into strategies for use in business plans and business models. 

As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan. 

Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals. 
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings. 
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples. 
Strategy
| Design |
This page uses an example to illustrate how:
  • A business can gain focus from targeting key customers,
  • Business planning activities performed by the whole organization can build awareness, empowerment and coherence. 
  • A program approach can ensure strategic alignment. 
Program Management
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