|
In this page we explain how to use the site.
There are two main starting points:
- The example systems
frame and
- The presentation
frame.
- And then there is how
we use the site.
The site uses lots of click through. That's so that you
can see the underlying principles that are contributing to the
system being discussed. We hope that as you internalize
and reflect on the principles the system should appear in a new
light. At this site clicking is good!
Opportunities frame |
Exploring opportunities |
Dark webs can enhance
individual creativity, local operational autonomy, enterprise
strategic alignment and organizational learning. In this
page we summarize the opportunity.
Dark webs |
The productivity of
complex adaptive system (CAS) is reviewed highlighting the most
significant variables: access to raw
materials, agency based leverage of additional wage
labors/consumers & amplifying
infrastructure build-out; when they expand markets for
goods & services. The CAS and classical economic
approaches are compared.
Important CAS aspects are highlighted:
- CAS reflect the history of
all the events of the network of agents and their environment
- The relevant economic
history is reviewed demonstrating the contribution of
power, politics, war...
- Chemical
structures capture and preserve important recipes that
allow agents to increase search/operational effectiveness
and wealth & the
system to be robust
- Environment matched
to system strategy: Superorganism
and beetle
- Cliodynamic models of historical agent networks allows a
realistic assessment
of productivity over a full network cycle
- The models must be matched
to the proximate environment
- Internal failures
of the agent network
- Existential
threats to the agent network
Human agents must dedicate: focus, time,
coherence and skills; to productively generate wealth. And they could
do much more - learning to develop
and use formal schematic plans
during their education, and using the skill when participating
in a superorganism.
CAS level
productivity improvements are due to:
- Meta ideas that can be reused and recombined
- Distribution of these ideas allow parallel searching
- Isolated agents can be integrated into the current network
during each growth phase, but cliodynamic assessments show
agents are dropped again from the network during the decline
phase of the cycle
- Network
effects and leverage of power drive productivity
improvements.
Human agent level productivity
- Agent level productivity
improvements of significance
- More time: Increased light,
reduced moving & travelling, quicker & better
eating, reduced rework, motivated & effective
- Broader utilization with adoption of standards &
undermining of monopoly
constraints
- Weapons & armor
- Power available: Driving
flows &
actions in required direction
- Iterative theory & practice
- Infrastructure & tools: catalytic
reduction in cost of repeated operations
- Agent level productivity improvements of
limited effect
Productivity of CAS |
Representative democracy's robustness is dependent on emotional
and cultural
aspects of humanity. The impact of YouTube's
recommendation engine on the adolescent mind has
undermined the genetic
operators provided by culture. Typical parental constraints on
the associations allowed to adolescents are undermined and
emotional links are built to the most emotive ideas, based
simply on their capacity to sustain attention to YouTube.
An outline
mechanism is described that reintroduces 'parental'
constraints. Legislative enforcement of the capability is
required.
Details of the theoretical complex adaptive system (CAS)
requirements of genetic operations are introduced. The
minds implementation of the schematic operators is
explained. Traditional cultural constraints limiting large
changes in the schema base are outlined.
Aligning YouTube & democracy |
In Gray Matter Michael Graziano asks Are we Really
Conscious? He argues that we build inaccurate models of
reality and then develop intuitions based on these problematic
models. He concludes we can't use intuitions to understand
consciousness. Instead he promotes 'brain science' as more
accurate and argues it suggests we are not conscious. In
this page we summarize his article and then use complex adaptive
system (CAS) theory to review his
arguments. Constrained by CAS theory and mechanisms of
emergence we see a requirement for consciousness.
Graziano's consciousness |
Consciousness is no longer mysterious. In this page we use
complex adaptive system (CAS)
theory to describe the high-level
architecture of consciousness, linking sensory networks,
low level feelings and
genetically conserved and deployed neural structures into a high
level scheduler. Consciousness is evolution's
solution to the complex problems of effective, emergent,
multi-cellular perception based strategy.
Constrained by emergence and needing
to avoid the epistemological
problem of starting with a blank slate with every birth,
evolution was limited in its options.
We explain how survival value allows evolution to leverage
available tools: sensors, agent relative position, models, perception
& representation; to solve the problem of mobile
agents responding effectively to their own state and proximate environment.
Evolution did this by providing a genetically
constructed framework that can
develop into a conscious CAS.
And we discuss the implications with regard to artificial
intelligence, sentient robots,
augmented intelligence, and
aspects of philosophy.
On the nature of conscious things |
John Searle's influential thought experiment implied to him that
computers cannot understand. Complex adaptive system (CAS) theory indicates that this is
not the case.
Understanding the Chinese room |
In his talk 'The Science of Ending Aging' Aubrey de Grey argues
we should invest more in maintenance of our bodies. In
this page we summarize his video comments and then use complex
adaptive system (CAS) theory to
review his arguments. Focusing the lens of CAS theory and
mechanisms of emergence on the system we highlight the pros and
cons of ending aging.
Ending aging |
The essence of
a library complex adaptive system (CAS) is defined.
Implications
for the future development of contemporary libraries
are reviewed.
Libraries evolving |
This web page reviews opportunities to benefit from modeling
agent based flows using complex adaptive system (CAS) theory.
Agent based flows |
This web page reviews opportunities to find and capture new
niches based on studying fitness landscapes using complex
adaptive system (CAS) theory.
Fitness landscapes |
This web page reviews opportunities to enhance computing theory
and practice by using biological mechanisms and complex adaptive
system (CAS) theory.
Biologically inspired computing |
|
|
Explore persistent business challenges & opportunities
Summary
This web page reviews persistent business challenges with
complex adaptive system ( This page introduces the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory
frame. The theory is positioned relative to the natural
sciences. It catalogs the laws and strategies which
underpin the operation of systems that are based on the
interaction of emergent agents.
John Holland's framework for representing complexity is
outlined. Links to other key aspects of CAS theory
discussed at the site are presented.
CAS)
theory.
Introduction
Businesses exist within national economies is a human SuperOrganism complex adaptive system (CAS) which operates and controls trade flows within a rich niche. Economics models economies. Robert Gordon has described the evolution of the American economy. Like other CAS, economic flows are maintained far from equilibrium by: demand, financial flows and constraints, supply infrastructure constraints, political and military constraints; ensuring wealth, legislative control, legal contracts and power have significant leverage through evolved amplifiers. . They are This page discusses the mechanisms and effects of emergence
underpinning any complex adaptive system (CAS). Physical forces and
constraints follow the rules of complexity. They generate
phenomena and support the indirect emergence of epiphenomena.
Flows of epiphenomena interact in events which support the
emergence of equilibrium and autonomous
entities. Autonomous entities enable evolution
to operate broadening the adjacent possible.
Key research is reviewed.
emergent Plans are interpreted and implemented by agents. This page
discusses the properties of agents in a complex adaptive system
(CAS).
It then presents examples of agents in different CAS. The
examples include a computer program where modeling and actions
are performed by software agents. These software agents
are aggregates.
The participation of agents in flows is introduced and some
implications of this are outlined.
agents
within national This page introduces the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory
frame. The theory is positioned relative to the natural
sciences. It catalogs the laws and strategies which
underpin the operation of systems that are based on the
interaction of emergent agents.
John Holland's framework for representing complexity is
outlined. Links to other key aspects of CAS theory
discussed at the site are presented.
complex adaptive
systems (CAS). CAS theory or practice can be applied
to examine persistent challenges and identify new opportunities
for businesses. The opportunities and challenges can be
mapped to powerful conceptual strategic forces. Concrete
examples of these range from business reorganizations, limits on
power, fear of focus, or of planning, breakfast coordination,
leverage of GE
Capital to thinking in Chinese.
The web frame lists a number of
business situations The agents in complex adaptive
systems (CAS) must model their
environment to respond effectively to it. Samuel
modeling is described as an approach.
modeled as agent
This page discusses the effect of the network on the agents participating in a complex
adaptive system (CAS). Small
world and scale free networks are considered.
networks in CAS environments.
The presence of This page reviews the inhibiting effect of the value delivery system on the
expression of new phenotypic
effects within an agent.
strategic alignment
and over arching influence of amplifiers, either This page reviews the catalytic
impact of infrastructure on the expression of phenotypic effects by an
agent. The infrastructure
reduces the cost the agent must pay to perform the selected
action. The catalysis is enhanced by positive returns.
infrastructure or This page reviews the strategy of setting up an arms race. At its
core this strategy depends on being able to alter, or take
advantage of an alteration in, the genome
or equivalent. The situation is illustrated with examples
from biology, high tech and politics.
evolutionary in nature, allows models,
and The page describes the SWOT
process. That includes:
- The classification
of each event into strength weakness opportunity and
threat.
- The clustering
process for grouping the classified events into goals.
- How the clusters
can support planning and execution.
Operational SWOT matrices and clusters from the Adaptive Web
Framework (AWF) are included as examples.
SWOTs, to identify likely trends
in the real world situation. Key CAS theoretical concepts
are illustrated with concrete examples:
- Key employees not knowing a new businesses target
customers is depressingly typical.
- Modeling the abstract design of a tool chain or business as a CAS highlights
strategic patterns and helps evaluate alternative
organizational design
choices.
- Computer based agents can help develop effective models
of complex systems:
- The development of
This page introduces the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory
frame. The theory is positioned relative to the natural
sciences. It catalogs the laws and strategies which
underpin the operation of systems that are based on the
interaction of emergent agents.
John Holland's framework for representing complexity is
outlined. Links to other key aspects of CAS theory
discussed at the site are presented.
consistent
definitions of CAS theory helps with effectively
modeling CAS. Otherwise, suitcase words have multiple attached meanings which encourage us to think in different ways about the word. Suitcase words are reviewed by Marvin Minsky. ,
confuse the analysis and can undermine the valuations of
CAS theory. Consulting with, and franchising of, the
memetic web of definitions should support investigators
and analysts studying real-world systems such as the US is the United States of America. The structure and problems of the US
health care network is described in terms of complex adaptive
system (CAS) theory.
The network:
- Is deeply embedded in the US nation state. It reflects the
conflict between two
opposing visions for the US: high tax with safety net
or low tax without. The emergence
of a parasitic elite supported by tax policy, further
constrains the choices available to improve the efficiency
and effectiveness of the network.
- The US is optimized to sell its citizens dangerous
levels of: salt,
sugar, cigarettes,
guns, light, cell phones, opioids,
costly education, global travel,
antibacterials, formula, foods including
endocrine disrupters;
- Accepting the US controlled global supply chain's
offered goods & services results in: debt, chronic stress,
amplified consumption and toxic excess, leading to obesity, addiction, driving instead of
walking, microbiome
collapse;
- Is incented to focus on localized competition generating
massive & costly duplication of services within
physician based health care operations instead of proven
public health strategies. This process drives
increasing research & treatment complexity and promotes hope
for each new technological breakthrough.
- Is amplified by the legislatively structured separation
and indirection of service development,
provision, reimbursement and payment.
- Is impacted by the different political strategies for
managing the increasing
cost of health care for the demographic bulge of retirees.
- Is presented with acute
and chronic
problems to respond to. As currently setup the network
is tuned to handle acute problems. The interactions
with patients tend to be transactional.
- Includes a legislated health insurance infrastructure
which is:
- Costly and inefficient
- Structured around yearly
contracts which undermine long-term health goals and
strategies.
- Is supported by increasingly regulated HCIT
which offers to improve data sharing and quality but has
entrenched commercial EHR
products deep within the hospital systems.
- Is maintained, and kept in
alignment, by massive network
effects across the:
- Hospital platform
based
sub-networks connecting to
- Physician networks
- Health insurance networks - amplified by ACA
narrow network legislation
- Hospital clinical supply and food
production networks
- Medical school and academic research network and NIH
- Global
transportation network
- Public health networks
- Health care IT supply
network
health
care CAS. Entrenched approaches to the
analysis of complexity, M. Mitchell Waldrop describes a vision of complexity via: - Rich interactions that allow a system to undergo spontaneous self-organization
- Systems that are adaptive
- More predictability than chaotic systems by bringing order and chaos into
- Balance at the edge of chaos
typically use hierarchy
and abstraction to limit a 'looming Dietrich Dorner argues complex adaptive systems (CAS) are hard to understand and
manage. He provides examples of how this feature of these
systems can have disastrous consequences for their human
managers. Dorner suggests this is due to CAS properties
psychological impact on our otherwise successful mental
strategic toolkit. To prepare to more effectively manage
CAS, Dorner recommends use of:
- Effective iterative planning and
- Practice with complex scenario simulations; tools which he
reviews.
complexity catastrophe' since
once that occurs, it is argued ( Grady Booch advocates an object oriented approach to computer
software design.
Booch,
Using John Holland's theory of adaptation in complex
systems Baldwin and Clark propose an evolutionary theory of
design. They show how this can limit the interdependencies
that generate complexity
within systems. They do this through a focus on
modularity.
Baldwin & Clark) that, no
human has the intellect to comprehend the total
system. However, CAS theory shows that evolution
does not require design or hierarchy and assuming their
presence can lead to confusion. Worse, reviews have
repeatedly seen useful CAS models replaced by simplistic
alternatives that helped the promoters of the simple
models to capture grants, power and strategic
direction. Leveraging CAS definitions analysis can
concentrate on inherent uncertainties is when a factor is hard to measure because it is dependent on many interconnected agents and may be affected by infrastructure and evolved amplifiers. This is different from Risk. to
CAS of:
This page reviews the inhibiting effect of the value delivery system on the
expression of new phenotypic
effects within an agent.
Phenotypic alignment acts on
all The complex adaptive system (CAS)
nature of a value delivery system is first introduced. It's a network
of agents acting as relays.
The critical nature of hub agents and the difficulty of altering
an aligned network is reviewed.
The nature of and exceptional opportunities created by platforms are discussed.
Finally an example of aligning a VDS is presented.
value delivery systems.
- It is often experienced as a business's competitors
partnering with other of the enterprise businesses.
- Succeeding emergent businesses benefit from aligned
value delivery systems, but within enterprises they can
appear as inefficient and presenting conflicting messages
and products to customers. Executive business
architects act to improve efficiency and align
messages.
- HP's reorganization to share channels to enterprise
customers quickly undermined the grafted businesses
existing value delivery systems accelerating the
businesses demise.
- Startup businesses within enterprises are often
instructed to align with the current stars. But the
center of the market for a startup is often in conflict
with this goal. Only a broadly accepted enterprise
strategy to promote startups and their value chain
optimizations will allow the startup to compete in its
market effectively, and this will depend on the enterprise
stars'
Agents use sensors to detect events in their environment.
This page reviews how these events become signals associated
with beneficial responses in a complex adaptive system (CAS). CAS signals emerge from
the Darwinian information model. Signals can indicate decision summaries and level of
uncertainty.
signals and actions not
repelling the other agents the startup must attract.
- Bottom feeding businesses experience conflict when they
attempt to access rich resources more aligned with market
leaders.
- Marconi's low cost business model could not allow
salaries to match the average in the high growth
computing market, resulting in loss of staff and high
usage of consultants for middle-management
positions.
Peter Turchin describes how major pre-industrial empires
developed due to effects of geographic boundaries constraining
the empires and their neighbors' interactions. Turchin
shows how the asymmetries of breeding rates and resource growth
rates results in dynamic cycles within cycles. After the
summary of Turchin's book complex adaptive system (CAS) theory
is used to augment Turchins findings.
Collective solidarity can be
critical to sustaining competitive advantage. But oligopolies, groups who together control the majority of market share in a market. If they act together they can exert monopoly control of the market. and
democracies can dissipate the forces that sustain solidarity
and suffer at critical points in the industry cycle in
competition with systems with other forms of leadership aims to develop plans and strategies which ensure effective coordination to improve the common good of the in-group. John Adair developed a leadership methodology based on the three-circles model. .
This page reviews Christensen's disruption
of a complex adaptive system (CAS).
The mechanism is discussed with examples from biology and
business.
Disruption can generate outsize
results for emerging businesses within an enterprise
network.
- Executives over-promising to gain investment search in
vain for 'big opportunities' and ignore small bowling alley, in Geoffrey Moore's marketing strategies is a metaphor for focusing on a limited market segment, so as to capture and own it with a discrete product repeatedly.
wins. In contrast Steve Jobs, invests in the iPod
and then leverages its iTunes web site, the Apple Stores,
and profit stream to support further bowling alley
opportunities which became the blockbuster, a business model which requires substantial resources to produce the product, but also generates outsize returns if it converts a majority of its potential market into customers. iPhone and
iPad ensuring the disruption of the music is a complex emergent capability supported by sexual selection and generating pleasure. It transforms the sensing of epiphenomena: Contour, Rhythm, Tempo, Timbre; to induce salient representations: Harmony, Key, Loudness, Melody, Meter, Pitch, and perceptions: Reverberation - echo; which allow musicians to show their fitness: superior coordination, creativity, adolescent leadership, stamina; true for birds and humans. Levitin showed that listening to music causes a cascade of brain regions to become activated in a particular order: auditory cortex, frontal regions, such as BA44 and BA47, and finally the mesolimbic system, culminating in the nucleus accumbens. And he found the cerebellum and basal ganglia were active throughout the session. He argues music mimics some of the features of language and conveys some of the same emotions. The brain regions pulse with the beat and predict the next one. As the music is heard it is modeled and generates dopamine rewards for matching each beat and noting creative jokes in the rhythm. The cerebellum finds pleasure in adjusting itself to stay synchronized.
, smart phone and
PC is personal computer laptop
businesses.
Walter Shewhart's iterative development process is found in many
complex adaptive systems (CAS).
The mechanism is reviewed and its value in coping with random
events is explained.
Shewhart cycles are
important.
This page discusses the tagging of signals
in a complex adaptive system (CAS).
Tagged signals can be used to control filtering of an event
stream. Examples of CAS filters are reviewed.
Tags and filtering of signals
allows agents within businesses to coordinate within a
decentralized operating structure, just as E. O. Wilson & Bert Holldobler illustrate how bundled cooperative strategies can
take hold. Various social insects have developed
strategies which have allowed them to capture the most valuable
available niches. Like humans they invest in
specialization and cooperate to subdue larger, well equipped
competitors.
insect super organisms do.
- Xerox hardware support engineers informally met for
breakfast, and shared customer experiences including
tricky problems and how they had fixed them.
Executives, trying to formalize the process, replaced the
breakfasts with a data sharing tool reducing the
coordination and cooperation within the engineering
group.
- Web page generator filters can tie html links within a
web page to the focus of the included information.
This can help sustain the focus of the reader of the page,
and reduce the likelihood of logic distortions that can
occur with too much, and or unrelated streams of input as
described
by Jonah Lehrer.
This page reviews the catalytic
impact of infrastructure on the expression of phenotypic effects by an
agent. The infrastructure
reduces the cost the agent must pay to perform the selected
action. The catalysis is enhanced by positive returns.
Infrastructure amplifiers
provide access to concentrated resources.
This page reviews the strategy of setting up an arms race. At its
core this strategy depends on being able to alter, or take
advantage of an alteration in, the genome
or equivalent. The situation is illustrated with examples
from biology, high tech and politics.
Evolutionary amplifiers
encourage responses that support selection.
- Apple's iPhone application developers invest in the platform is agent generated infrastructure that supports emergence of an entity through: leverage of an abundant energy source, reusable resources; attracting a phenotypically aligned network of agents.
because the
iPhone installed base represents a large base of potential
application users. The large base of applications
for the iPhone attracts further developers, while
discouraging them from targeting smart phone platforms
with small application portfolios.
- General Electric's leverage of GE Capital to
This page introduces some problems that make it hard for a
business to execute effectively.
It then presents a theory
of execution.
It describes what the theory says must be done
to execute effectively.
It reviews General
Electric's use of adaptive planning to support effective
execution.
Then it details the execution
requirements.
smooth results of all its operating
businesses ensured investors discounted GE stock uncertainty is when a factor is hard to measure because it is dependent on many interconnected agents and may be affected by infrastructure and evolved amplifiers. This is different from Risk.
building a positive cycle of investment, competitive wins
and capital accumulation. The cycle was only broken
when the 2008 financial crisis removed GEs cash cushion,
inhibiting them from buffering their business results and
causing last-minute restatements of results.
- The broad adoption of open standards presented IT
departments with the opportunity to change, and reduce the
costs of their infrastructure. But the evolved
amplifier which pushed the agents, and infrastructure
suppliers, forward promoted poor, as well as good,
standards, for example OSI (OSI), a set of communications interconnection standards defined by the International Standards Organization (ISO) global standards body. OSI competed unsuccessfully with the IETF's TCP/IP. The basic seven layer 'model' of OSI is still influential.
networking, even when these were in conflict with valuable
features. The result was just extended product sales
cycles, except where deployable alternative standards,
like TCP (TCP), a point-to-point connection oriented protocol specified and standardized by IETF and widely implemented in Internet communications.
/IP (IP), a datagram based connectionless protocol specified by the IETF. It can be used by TCP as its network layer protocol when sending and receiving data packets. , became
available.
- Barefoot coffee roasters, focused on their Italian
espresso vision and connections to small artisan coffee
bean growers, to roast high end niche coffees. Their
specially trained baristas entered nationwide competitions
where their skills and the Barefoot coffee roasts could be
highlighted. The reputation generated broader
awareness and acceptance of the lighter Italian styles
they made and the complexity and balance of the flavors
from the artisan beans. Interest from high end
markets such as Whole
Foods completed the evolved amplification.
This page discusses the benefits of bringing agents and resources to the
dynamically best connected region of a complex adaptive system (CAS).
Centralization pairs To benefit from shifts in the environment agents must be flexible. Being
sensitive to environmental signals
agents who adjust strategic priorities can constrain their
competitors.
flexibility and amplifiers.
- Google's Android smart phone architecture and
partnerships improve Google's access to search activities
by mobile users.
- Emotion circuits rapidly bring attention to focus on
evolutionarily significant signals.
This page discusses the benefits of proactively strengthening
strong points.
Prophylaxis focuses agents on
strong points.
- 'Google books' expands the potential benefits of web
searching.
- Concentrated focus on salient activities protects the
limited attention span of high level agents from
information overload.
- IBM's successful mainframe office systems strategy
became undermined by open standards. IBM worked with
a variety of vendors to gain access to standards based
office systems technologies. By requiring
confidentiality they were able to test the value of the
technologies and their ability to deliver solutions to
their customers, and then select a centralizing technology
from the alternatives. Eventually they purchased the
company who supplied the core technologies.
- Weak points
become the focus of competition.
- Home owners, with poor credit ratings, were happy to use
subprime loans. It reduced their cost of
credit.
- Individual
The structure and problems of the US
health care network is described in terms of complex adaptive
system (CAS) theory.
The network:
- Is deeply embedded in the US nation state. It reflects the
conflict between two
opposing visions for the US: high tax with safety net
or low tax without. The emergence
of a parasitic elite supported by tax policy, further
constrains the choices available to improve the efficiency
and effectiveness of the network.
- The US is optimized to sell its citizens dangerous
levels of: salt,
sugar, cigarettes,
guns, light, cell phones, opioids,
costly education, global travel,
antibacterials, formula, foods including
endocrine disrupters;
- Accepting the US controlled global supply chain's
offered goods & services results in: debt, chronic stress,
amplified consumption and toxic excess, leading to obesity, addiction, driving instead of
walking, microbiome
collapse;
- Is incented to focus on localized competition generating
massive & costly duplication of services within
physician based health care operations instead of proven
public health strategies. This process drives
increasing research & treatment complexity and promotes hope
for each new technological breakthrough.
- Is amplified by the legislatively structured separation
and indirection of service development,
provision, reimbursement and payment.
- Is impacted by the different political strategies for
managing the increasing
cost of health care for the demographic bulge of retirees.
- Is presented with acute
and chronic
problems to respond to. As currently setup the network
is tuned to handle acute problems. The interactions
with patients tend to be transactional.
- Includes a legislated health insurance infrastructure
which is:
- Costly and inefficient
- Structured around yearly
contracts which undermine long-term health goals and
strategies.
- Is supported by increasingly regulated HCIT
which offers to improve data sharing and quality but has
entrenched commercial EHR
products deep within the hospital systems.
- Is maintained, and kept in
alignment, by massive network
effects across the:
- Hospital platform
based
sub-networks connecting to
- Physician networks
- Health insurance networks - amplified by ACA
narrow network legislation
- Hospital clinical supply and food
production networks
- Medical school and academic research network and NIH
- Global
transportation network
- Public health networks
- Health care IT supply
network
health care
policies are of interest to at risk, is an assessment of the likelihood of an independent problem occurring. It can be assigned an accurate probability since it is independent of other variables in the system. As such it is different from uncertainty. individuals with
dependents willing to pay the price to mediate the
potential of catastrophic health care costs.
- Google docs and chrome browser offer
a free alternative to Microsoft's PC is personal computer
based full priced
office products and browser. A direct response to
the asymmetric attack would impact Microsoft's
profitability.
- The euro zone is the group of countries within the EU that use the euro currency. Economic decisions regarding the euro are centralized through the Eurogroup.
argued that Greece and Ireland must limit their spending
and increase revenues to gain access to low cost debt and
build a competitive workforce. The euro zone is
being This page reviews Christensen's disruption
of a complex adaptive system (CAS).
The mechanism is discussed with examples from biology and
business.
disrupted by low cost
Chinese business competition, and uncompetitive
wages sustained by the euro's value. The euro zone
leaves tax policy to individual countries within the zone
and is limited in its ability to cross fund the member
nations. CAS theory suggests that only new niche
creation, aligned with investment and protection from
disruption's effects, will generate substantial new growth
within the zone. Consequently international
investors are able to short is a multi part transaction where: - A borrowed tradable asset (this part of the transaction is not performed in the naked version) is sold under the assumption that the asset is going to fall in price during the period when it has been borrowed.
- Once the asset falls in price it is then purchased.
- The asset is returned to the lender, with any additional risk premium.
- The short seller keeps any profit. If the asset gained value during the period of the short then the seller makes a loss.
the euro
zone and gain leverage from the zone's own policies.
- Alternative
objectives create dilemmas for the
competition.
- Apple's iPod business created a dilemma for
Microsoft. Microsoft responded with an equivalent
MP3 music is a complex emergent capability supported by sexual selection and generating pleasure. It transforms the sensing of epiphenomena: Contour, Rhythm, Tempo, Timbre; to induce salient representations: Harmony, Key, Loudness, Melody, Meter, Pitch, and perceptions: Reverberation - echo; which allow musicians to show their fitness: superior coordination, creativity, adolescent leadership, stamina; true for birds and humans. Levitin showed that listening to music causes a cascade of brain regions to become activated in a particular order: auditory cortex, frontal regions, such as BA44 and BA47, and finally the mesolimbic system, culminating in the nucleus accumbens. And he found the cerebellum and basal ganglia were active throughout the session. He argues music mimics some of the features of language and conveys some of the same emotions. The brain regions pulse with the beat and predict the next one. As the music is heard it is modeled and generates dopamine rewards for matching each beat and noting creative jokes in the rhythm. The cerebellum finds pleasure in adjusting itself to stay synchronized.
player. However, while Apple leveraged its iPod
success to improve its iPod business it also ensured that
it could reuse the infrastructure for its iPhone and iPad
businesses. As each business was initiated the
direct competitors failed to respond to the direct or
indirect value exposed by Apple.
- Unbalancing of the
model and action agents
This page discusses the interdependence of perception and
representation in a complex adaptive system (CAS). Hofstadter
and Mitchell's research with Copycat is
reviewed. The bridging of a node from a network of 'well
known' percepts to a new representational instance is discussed
as it occurs in biochemistry, in consciousness and
abstractly.
perceptions
and representations.
- General electric repeatedly signalled the markets,
investors and competitors that their processes and talent
pool ensured competitive success. The results they
announced quarter after quarter added credence to the
signals. The effects of GE Capital was discreetly
leveraged, indirectly impacting GE's competitors
positions.
- Broad adoption of a technology platform is agent generated infrastructure that supports emergence of an entity through: leverage of an abundant energy source, reusable resources; attracting a phenotypically aligned network of agents.
dependent on
CAS agents branching from This page reviews the implications of reproduction initially
generating a single child cell. The mechanism and
resulting strategic options are discussed.
single
celled node consequently happens Tools and the businesses that produce them have evolved
dramatically. W Brian Arthur shows how this occurred.
slowly.
- HP's Newwave aimed to deploy object orientation and
agent infrastructure above Microsoft's 'new' Windows
platform. But for these new facilities to operate
effectively all the pc applications would need to be
re-written specifically to comply with additional
requirements and constraints of these services. Most
new pc applications were attempting to effectively use
windowing, while other required applications were run in a
DOS window.
- Deployments of new technology occur emergently.
HP's attempt to sell popular US is the United States of America.
voicemail systems to UK is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
enterprises during the eighties was undermined by a lack
of tone dialing telephone handsets within the UK.
Only the US market had broadly replaced pulse dial
handsets with tone dialing at the time.
- The emergence of
Representing state in emergent entities is essential but
difficult. Various structures are used to enhance the rate
and scope of state transitions. Examples are
discussed.
structurally
enhanced state allows relative real-time advantage to
be gained. But Agents can manage uncertainty by limiting
their commitments of resources until the environment contains signals strongly correlated with the
required scenario. This page explains how agents can use Shewhart cycles and SWOT processes to do this.
commitments
should still match pre-conditions.
- HP's productizing of highly parallelized networks of workflow, in business processes define the movement of a case file between cooperating agents who when they possess the case perform the activities outlined in the flow to complete a process. The flows and their control have been automated with workflow servers moving the case to the agents. The flowchart style model of the automated flows does not typically reflect the true adaptive nature of the collaborative interactions of the agents. servers
spiked interest from diverse solution developers from
telecoms networks, insurance reduces volatility in standard of living by compensating for losses of income during periods of unemployment, for catastrophic losses from disaster, or death of a family income earner as described by Gordon. Insurance companies must set aside reserves to handle such claims. Britain initially required that insurance buyers also have an insurable interest. That is required in insurance markets to ensure buyers of insurance don't destroy their asset just to obtain the insurance. Health insurance is treated separately being unusual, since the subscriber is likely to know more about their state of health than the insurer is and the subscriber is more likely to purchase the health insurance when aware of their increased risk. This behavior collapses the risk pool by: forcing the insurer to increase the premiums, and encouraging healthy individuals to opt out of health insurance coverage.
claims to office systems. But the core transaction is an operation which guarantees to complete a defined set of activities or return to the initial state. For a fee the postal service will ensure that a parcel is delivered to its recipient or will return the parcel to the sender. To provide the service it may have to undo the act of trying to deliver the parcel with a compensating action. Since the parcel could be lost or destroyed the service may have to return an equivalent value to the sender. times
were still far too long to be appropriate for milli-second
operations already required in some of the markets.
The applicable niches turned out to be too limited for the
extensive resources allocated to the
developments.
- Centralized management information systems proved to be
of limited value to the executives they were intended to
support. The information that they could aggregate
was generally irrelevant to the decisions that the
executives were focused on.
- The use of web based infrastructure to gather and
distribute event notifications to web users, risks overloading
attention,
and altering the weightings of focusing mechanisms
in the brain. Analogous challenges in the primate
brain, are managed by low level neuron networks, a network of interconnected neurons which perform signalling, modeling and control functions. In Cajal's basic neural circuits the signalling is unidirectional. He identified three classes of neurons in the circuits:
- Sensory, Interneurons, Motor; which are biochemically distinct and suffer different disease states.
expressed as senses such as fear,
and hunger which are connected to input sensors by
relatively fast connections in parallel to those
connecting the sensors to the brain's cognitive is the ability to orchestrate thought and action in accordance with internal goals according to Princeton's Jonathan Cohen.
areas. The sensors also process information
locally forwarding on only summaries.
- An Adaptive web framework (AWF)
This page describes a schematic system about abstracted neurons operating in a
circuit.
The neuronal
system was designed to focus in on the cellular nature of
a schematically defined neuron.
The goals include:
- Development of a system of cells, their differentiation
and deployment into a neuron network.
- Abstract receptor operation must support interactions of a
network of neurons and attached cells.
THE IMPLEMENTATION IS INCOMPLETE AND ONGOING.
The codelets and infrastructure are
included.
neuron
network needs to associate its sensor cells
structurally enhanced state with local processing
power. A highly threaded implementation of the codelets
and the This page describes the Copycat
Coderack.
The details of the codelet architecture are described.
The specialized use of the Coderack by the adaptive web
framework's (AWF) Smiley is discussed.
The codelet scheduling mechanism is discussed.
A variety of Smiley extensions to the Coderack are reviewed.
The Coderack infrastructure functions are
included.
Coderack, or HADOOP is an open source implementation of the 'big data' distributed file system architecture used by Google to support its map-reduce programs. The map-reduce programs construct associations between vast numbers of web pages and typical search terms. distributed
racks, would limit the impact of sensor processing on
higher level neuron, specialized eukaryotic cells include channels which control flows of sodium and potassium ions across the massively extended cell membrane supporting an electro-chemical wave which is then converted into an outgoing chemical signal transmission from synapses which target nearby neuron or muscle cell receptors. Neurons are supported by glial cells. Neurons include a: - Receptive element - dendrites
- Transmitting element - axon and synaptic terminals. The axon may be myelinated, focusing the signals through synaptic transmission, or unmyelinated - where crosstalk is leveraged.
- Highly variable DNA schema using transposons.
activity.
Strategic amplifiers have outsize influences allowing for the
modeling of complex situations. Globalization
extends the networks of the first world to the developing
world. What does CAS imply about this shift?
Philosopher John John Searle's influential thought experiment implied to him that
computers cannot understand. Complex adaptive system (CAS) theory indicates that this is
not the case.
Searle's Chinese room
questions the basis of intelligence enables the achievement of goals in the face of obstacles. The goals are sub-goals of genes' survival and reproduction and include: - Obtaining and eating food
- Sex
- Finding and maintaining shelter
- Fighting for resources - in the preferred hunter gatherer environment loss of resources was critical while possession was often transient.
- Understanding the proximate environment
- Securing the cooperation of others
.
CAS theory resolves the conundrum.
 Politics, Economics & Evolutionary Psychology |
Business Physics Nature and nurture drive the business eco-system Human nature Emerging structure and dynamic forces of adaptation |
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integrating quality appropriate for each market |
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