Situation
This page describes the organizational forces that limit change.  It explains how to overcome them when necessary. 

Power& tradition holding back progress
This page uses an example to illustrate how:
  • A business can gain focus from targeting key customers,
  • Business planning activities performed by the whole organization can build awareness, empowerment and coherence. 
  • A program approach can ensure strategic alignment. 
Be responsive to market dynamics
This page uses the example of HP's printer organization freeing itself from its organizational constraints to sell a printer targeted at the IBM pc user. 
The constraints are described. 
The techniques to overcome them are implied. 
Overcome reactionaries
Primary Navigation

Communicating and judging through stories

Summary
This page looks at how scenarios allow people to relate to the possible evolution of the business and its products and services.  The Long view process is highlighted. 

Value based customer segmentation is reviewed.  Keirsey's psychological categorization and 'crossing the chasm, Geoffrey Moore describes target customer archetypes.  His 'Innovator' is a Keirsey personality segmentation rational.  His 'Visionary' is an artisan.  His 'Pragmatists and Conservatives' are guardians.  ' are highlighted. 

Three alternate systems are framed as long view scenarios (1) development of a billing mediation business, (2) development of the Grameen Bank the first micro loan bank and (3) some classic chess games

Some of the scenarios will be referenced in the
The page describes the SWOT process.  That includes:
  • The classification of each event into strength weakness opportunity and threat.  
  • The clustering process for grouping the classified events into goals.  
  • How the clusters can support planning and execution. 
Operational SWOT matrices and clusters from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF) are included as examples. 
SWOT
and
This page looks at schematic structures and their uses.  It discusses a number of examples:
  • Schematic ideas are recombined in creativity. 
  • Similarly designers take ideas and rules about materials and components and combine them. 
  • Schematic Recipes help to standardize operations. 
  • Modular components are combined into strategies for use in business plans and business models. 

As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan. 

Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals. 
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings. 
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples. 
planning
pages of this frame.  In particular the complex adaptive system (
This web frame explores very significant example real world complex adaptive systems (CAS).  It explains how the examples relate to each other, why we all have trouble effectively comprehending these systems and outlines the items we see as key to the system and why.  By understanding these summaries you can better frame the interdependencies of important events such as war in Iraq, new iPhone releases or a cancer diagnosis and see how they are impacting you. 

CAS
) goals used will be referenced by the planning pages schemetic goals
Introduction
The current situation is represented as a
This page discusses the effect of the network on the agents participating in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  Small world and scale free networks are considered. 
network
of
The agents in complex adaptive systems (CAS) must model their environment to respond effectively to it.  Samuel modeling is described as an approach. 
models
of potentially relevant
Plans are interpreted and implemented by agents.  This page discusses the properties of agents in a complex adaptive system (CAS). 
It then presents examples of agents in different CAS.  The examples include a computer program where modeling and actions are performed by software agents.  These software agents are aggregates. 
The participation of agents in flows is introduced and some implications of this are outlined. 
agents
and significant
This page discusses the physical foundations of complex adaptive systems (CAS).  A small set of rules is obeyed.  New [epi]phenomena then emerge.  Examples are discussed. 
rules
present in the proximate
This page discusses the potential of the vast state space which supports the emergence of complex adaptive systems (CAS).  Kauffman describes the mechanism by which the system expands across the space. 
environment
.  It is augmented with alternative scenarios of the near term future to provide a map for strategic analysis. 

By capturing
Agents use sensors to detect events in their environment.  This page reviews how these events become signals associated with beneficial responses in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  CAS signals emerge from the Darwinian information model.  Signals can indicate decision summaries and level of uncertainty. 
signals
associated with the current
This page discusses the potential of the vast state space which supports the emergence of complex adaptive systems (CAS).  Kauffman describes the mechanism by which the system expands across the space. 
environment
and then developing
The agents in complex adaptive systems (CAS) must model their environment to respond effectively to it.  Samuel modeling is described as an approach. 
models
of the evolving future, potential
This page looks at schematic structures and their uses.  It discusses a number of examples:
  • Schematic ideas are recombined in creativity. 
  • Similarly designers take ideas and rules about materials and components and combine them. 
  • Schematic Recipes help to standardize operations. 
  • Modular components are combined into strategies for use in business plans and business models. 

As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan. 

Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals. 
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings. 
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples. 
strategies
to achieve goals can be evaluated. 

The collection of environmental signals typically results in some type of labeled classification of models of the current situation.  For example in the relatively constrained environment of
This page discusses the tagging of signals in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  Tagged signals can be used to control filtering of an event stream.  Examples of CAS filters are reviewed. 
Chess
the initial moves of each player are categorized into labeled networks of openings such as the Sicilian, French and Queen's Gambit.  As the initial moves are played the classifications allow rapid
The page reviews how complex systems can be analyzed. 
The resulting analysis supports evaluation of system events. 
The analysis enables categorization of different events into classes. 
The analysis helps with recombination of the models to enable creativity. 
The page advocates an iterative approach including support from models. 

analysis of the situation


Most other systems are more complex.  The data capture, categorization and analysis are even less clear cut. 

Peter Schwartz's "long view" process enables the development of a number of stories (scenarios) that describe vividly how the future might unfold.  Each scenario suggests "
This page discusses the tagging of signals in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  Tagged signals can be used to control filtering of an event stream.  Examples of CAS filters are reviewed. 
flags
" that can be looked for to detect that the scenario is indeed how the world is developing.  Each scenario should aim to illustrate its use of complex adaptive system (
This web frame explores very significant example real world complex adaptive systems (CAS).  It explains how the examples relate to each other, why we all have trouble effectively comprehending these systems and outlines the items we see as key to the system and why.  By understanding these summaries you can better frame the interdependencies of important events such as war in Iraq, new iPhone releases or a cancer diagnosis and see how they are impacting you. 

CAS
) schematic goals.  These goals are described in the
This page looks at schematic structures and their uses.  It discusses a number of examples:
  • Schematic ideas are recombined in creativity. 
  • Similarly designers take ideas and rules about materials and components and combine them. 
  • Schematic Recipes help to standardize operations. 
  • Modular components are combined into strategies for use in business plans and business models. 

As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan. 

Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals. 
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings. 
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples. 
ideas and plans page


With a "most likely" scenario identified resource, technology and quality
This page looks at schematic structures and their uses.  It discusses a number of examples:
  • Schematic ideas are recombined in creativity. 
  • Similarly designers take ideas and rules about materials and components and combine them. 
  • Schematic Recipes help to standardize operations. 
  • Modular components are combined into strategies for use in business plans and business models. 

As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan. 

Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals. 
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings. 
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples. 
plans
can be scoped appropriately. 

Customer value and segmentation
The scenarios should involve real customers' needs and wants.  They also benefit from being organized by a segmentation strategy.  At AWF we use a personality segmentation, Keirsey, Myers-Briggs and Aristotle have noted a personality segmentation reflecting individual/group orientation and theory/practice orientation.  Keirsey named the four segments: Rational (i, t), Idealist (g, t), Guardian (g, p) and Artisan (i, p).  Geoffrey Moore's chasm crossing strategy can be seen to leverage this personality segmentation.  based on values following Keirsey.  It's an approach that maps directly to Geoffrey Moore's Crossing the Chasm segmentation.  So we would expect early focus on rational technologists with a value proposition aimed at them.  This would be followed by targeting of an artisan visionary.  Hence the scenarios should be about some of these targets personally known to the scenario developers, or failing that really well documented strangers as in the case of our use of the development of Grameen Bank on this page. 

A series of history based stories
Below are some details that aim to set the scene and provide reference for strategic actions.  The scenarios include:

Long view details of the mobile communications industry
In 1999 I had to decide how much resource should be allocated to the development of 2.5G and 3G billing mediation is a technology which connects a usage report from a piece of network equipment to a billing, configuration or auditing system.  2.5G, 3G and 4G are generation ids of types of architecture of wireless network equipment.   projects at Hewlett-Packard's Cupertino Factory.  The best answer would take into account how rapidly mobile network operators is responsible for the operation of a wide area physical network.  The network may be wireless or wire line.  It typically has subscribers who pay to send voice or data packets over the network.   deployed data networks, the associated billing infrastructure and how many of the deployments selected our solution. 

Wireless data situation
With the data we gathered about the world economy, the growth of the Internet and world-wide-web, and the technical nature of cellular networks our stories indicated most of the significant problems that played out in the period between 1999 and 2001, except September 11 of course. 

The initiation of 3G wireless spectrum sales launched all scenarios.  These auctions were designed to leverage the positive returns, W Brian Arthur's conception of how high tech products have positive economic feedback as they deploy.  Classical products such as foods have negative returns to scale since they take increasing amounts of land, and distribution infrastructure to support getting them to market.  High tech products typically become easier to produce or gain from network effects of being connected together overcoming the negative effects of scale.   economics of
This page discusses the effect of the network on the agents participating in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  Small world and scale free networks are considered. 
networks
.  The operator with the most coverage would typically capture the most subscribers.  Network operators would be keen to bid for the broadest areas of coverage.  The politicians realized that they could capitalize on this by forcing the operators into a bidding war.  Capital is the sum total nonhuman assets that can be owned and exchanged on some market according to Piketty.  Capital includes: real property, financial capital and professional capital.  It is not immutable instead depending on the state of the society within which it exists.  It can be owned by governments (public capital) and private individuals (private capital). 
was transferred from the operators to the various governments. 

The incumbent wireless network operators is responsible for the operation of a wide area physical network.  The network may be wireless or wire line.  It typically has subscribers who pay to send voice or data packets over the network.   were in a bind.  It was necessary to obtain the rights to deploy wireless data networks.  But it was not known how they would get subscribers to pay for 'data'.  SMS messages were hugely profitable for the operators, so they were the Twinkie that justified some optimism.  It was expected that voice revenues would drop over time due to fierce competition. 

Network equipment providers, designed built financed and deployed network equipment to network operators.  Equipment included voice switches to support telephone calls, data switches to support data network applications to PCs and cell phones, as well as call control systems which told the switches when to break or disallow the connection to a subscriber.   were pleased to provide data switches and services to extend the operators networks for data.  However, with the data that people were interested residing on the global wire line, a network connection from a network operator to a subscriber device which uses a physical wire to transfer the data packets or voice circuit.  It is an alternative to wireless connections where data is transferred over a radio connection.   Internet it was likely that Cisco would use its TCP (TCP), a point-to-point connection oriented protocol specified and standardized by IETF and widely implemented in Internet communications. 
/IP (IP), a datagram based connectionless protocol specified by the IETF.  It can be used by TCP as its network layer protocol when sending and receiving data packets.   routing capabilities and lower cost structure to become a major competitor to the incumbent network equipment providers such as Nortel, Lucent, Alcatel etc.  Once an operator had chosen an equipment provider it was likely to be entrenched for the lifetime of the switches.  Entrenched competitors used
This page reviews the strategy of bundling multiple products within a single offer in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  The mechanism is discussed with examples from biology and business. 
bundling
, offering to fund the network infrastructure as long as they would also obtain the service contract.  In effect as the operators captured revenue from their subscribers, they would pass on some to the equipment providers who would then pay off the capital costs of the equipment they had provided.  The deployments would likely fly into operation.  But how would the subscribers be billed, and what value would they obtain from the networks? 

Most wire line Internet use was to access the web.  The content was typically free.  But cell phones needed to gateway is a transform which allows interconnection of two different types of networks. 
to the web pages.  Network operators typically controlled the capabilities of cell phones running on their networks.  Could the operators constrain their subscribers to accept paying to gain wireless access to the web pages?  Paying for products with cell phones would require a totally new way of bundling the network access and the product offer.  Movies and music would need much improved cell phones, high capacity networks and clear indications of delivery of the content and ability of the subscriber to pay for this relatively valuable content. 

It would be 2007 before the iPhone finally provided consumers with a broadly accepted solution.  In 1999 Nokia, Sony, Ericsson and UnwiredPlanet thought they would extend the ubiquitous cell phone oligopoly, groups who together control the majority of market share in a market.  If they act together they can exert monopoly control of the market. 
into owning access to the new wireless data networks. 

Wireless data scenarios
In the aggressive scenario use of wireless data would grow rapidly, and charging would be accepted by the network's subscribers.  The expected reduction in voice revenues would be replaced by data revenues and the wireless network operators would be keen to deploy flexible billing solutions to capture payments for use of the new features. 

A less aggressive scenario would find subscribers adopting wireless data but their expectations would be set by the free fixed Internet which would limit the ability of the network operators to capture revenue for the data services.  The deployment of billing would proceed but the failure to replace collapsing voice revenues would limit the capital investment base of the wireless network operators.  Testing out of the core network was likely to continue for some time. 

A further pessimistic scenario assumed that the operators would fail to identify effective billing strategies but would be forced to buy spectrum and deploy networks.  This would encourage the operators to leverage low cost solutions offered by their incumbent providers.  Over time the collapse of voice revenues would undermine the operators and the network equipment providers causing a slowdown in deployment. 

The assumed likely scenario implied that the interest in wireless data based application billing would pull flexible solutions into the market and then quickly peak and then stall.  It allowed us to
Agents can manage uncertainty by limiting their commitments of resources until the environment contains signals strongly correlated with the required scenario.  This page explains how agents can use Shewhart cycles and SWOT processes to do this. 
cap the allocation of resources to match the preconditions
.  The announcements of new handsets, services, and billing requirements from the operators then provided
Agents use sensors to detect events in their environment.  This page reviews how these events become signals associated with beneficial responses in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  CAS signals emerge from the Darwinian information model.  Signals can indicate decision summaries and level of uncertainty. 
signals
for us to assess which scenario was playing out, and how we should adjust our plans. 

Muhammad Yunus Banker to the Poor
3 Back in Chittagong
Yunus aimed to help manage and capitalize a capital intensive irrigation system (a deep tube-well) to allow farmers to leverage this existing infrastructure.  Still he discovered that the benefits were not accrued equally be all participants.  Once the farmers had succeeded in growing extra rice due to the irrigation it had to be harvested.  Destitute day labor was paid very little to do this hard physical work.  Being landless and asset-less they had to accept the offer.  Yunus realized they would never escape their position in this system and neither would their offspring. 

Yunus concludes 'My experience with Jobra's deep tube-well convinced me to turn my focus on the landless poor.  Soon I started arguing that wherever a poverty alleviation program allowed the non-poor to be co-passengers, the poor would soon be elbowed out of the program by those who were better off.  In the world of development, if one mixes the poor and the non-poor in a program, the non-poor will always drive out the poor, and the less poor will drive out the more poor, unless protective measures are instituted right at the beginning.  In such cases, the non-poor reap the benefits of all that is done in the name of the poor.' 

5 A Pilot Project is Born
Not being a banker Yunus was able to define new structures that were better matched to his borrowers than lump sum repayment schedules.  He comments 'In structuring our credit program, I decided to do exactly the opposite of traditional banks.  To overcome the psychological barrier of parting with large sums, I decided to institute a daily payment program.  I made the loan payments so small that borrowers would barely miss the money.  And for ease of accounting, I decided to ask that the loans be paid back fully in one year.  Thus a 365 taka loan could be repaid at the rate of 1 taka a day over the course of one year. 

Yunus developed his own delivery-recovery mechanism
Walter Shewhart's iterative development process is found in many complex adaptive systems (CAS).  The mechanism is reviewed and its value in coping with random events is explained. 
iteratively, changing ideas and procedures with experience and growth feedback
.  He cites the example of
Flows of different kinds are essential to the operation of complex adaptive systems (CAS). 
Example flows are outlined.  Constraints on flows support the emergence of the systems.  Examples of constraints are discussed. 
enforcing the formation of local self-support groups, not allowing loans until a nucleus had formed and all members have achieved bank certification
and then only allowing one loan until that lender and the group had demonstrated business success and achieved sustained repayment.  The group approves the loan request of any member prior to the bank's involvement.  A nearby cluster of groups are encouraged to help each other.  This ensures:

p71 Social convention constrains Bangladeshi women
Yunus complains that
This page describes the consequences of the asymmetries caused by eggs being provided with costly resources from its mother.  This presents positional opportunities for the mother's genes to gain advantage over the father and offspring. 
The effect of this asymmetry is to limit the impacts of both offspring and father on the mother.  The strategies are outlined. 
Bangladesh's financial institutions are gender biased
.  It took six years for Grameen to build up its women borrowers to be half of its customer base.  The Bangladeshi banks have women's branches. However, they are interested in rich women's deposits.  If even a rich woman wants to borrow money from a bank, the manager will ask her 'Did you discuss this with your husband?'.  And if she answers yes the manager will say, 'Is he supportive of your proposal?'  If the answer is still 'Yes,' he will say, 'Would you please bring your husband along so we can discuss it with him.'  But complains Yunus the reverse would never happen.  Hence Yunus is not surprised that Women are less than 1% of borrowers from Bangladeshi banks.  The banking system was created for men. 

p82 Purdah constrains Bangladeshi women
The low cost structure of Grameen is maintained by limiting the resources utilized by the administrative system.  However, given the exceptional education level of the management outsiders typically are shocked when the working conditions become apparent. 

Yunus describes a highly capable manager, who has struggled to obtain her families agreement to her working at Grameen.  However, in part the agreement is due to her explaining her senior role as a banker.  When her brother visits the Grameen branch he is aghast and the whole family riles at her directly dealing with the poor in their villages. 

Yunus explains how it takes much argument to convince the woman's mother of the significance of the role.  Eventually as the mother becomes more accustomed she becomes a big supporter.  Still it indicates the
This page reviews the inhibiting effect of the value delivery system on the expression of new phenotypic effects within an agent. 
difficulty of overcoming the cultural constraints


6 Expanding beyond Jobra into Tangail
p98 Dedicated young fighters make excellent workers in comparison to the problems with the agents provided by the Banks
The national bank staff turned out to be highly unreliable.  However, the ex-Gonobahini, an underground Marxist dissident movement 'The People's Army' of Tangail in Bangladesh.  Some of them realized that the fledgling Grameen bank was achieving their social goals peacefully.  They left the guerrillas and became effective representatives of the bank.  , were young, hardworking and dedicated.  They had wanted to liberate the country with guns and revolution, but instead were pleased to walk into the same villages extending loans to the destitute.  Yunus argues they just needed a cause to work for.  Equally he found that these workers were easily able to accept and leverage the Grameen principles while others with "experience" in banking struggled with the unusual methods adopted by Grameen, Deming argued that most new ideas are adopted by new entrants to the field, trained with the new ideas.  The incumbents are replaced as they retire, or their positions become non-viable.  Just as happened with the germ theory of disease. 
.  Grameen developed an extensive training program for its staff.  All this helped ensure effectiveness of the Grameen processes. 

The legal structure of Grameen early on required Yunus to give a report monthly to the Central Bank of Bangladesh.  The discussions were long and tedious since the managing directors of every participating bank could kidnap the direction.  For example when Grameen proposed that its workers be issued flash lights for walking in the villages at night, one Director argued that flash lights would destroy traditional village life! 

p111 disruptive system alienates Central Bank
A two year review of Grameen's Tangail activities by the Central Bank member commercial bank managing directors concluded that Grameen's success was purely due to:
  1. Yunus and his staff's devotion.  Grameen is not really a bank said one manager.  'Grameen's staff does not work banker's hours, and we banks could not replicate this model.  It needs a Yunus at each branch to scale'.
  2. Banks lend large amounts to smaller numbers of clients.  They did not like the idea of lending the very small amounts to huge numbers of people. 
Yunus was forced to expand the scope of Grameen to show the Bankers they were wrong.  He also had to find the funding to do so elsewhere.  The Ford Foundation provided $890,000 to guarantee Grameen so that the Bangladesh central bank would not be able to kill the project for risk concerns. 

p142 international agencies disconnected eco-net
Yunus is critical of the International aid agencies "style" of doing business with the poor.  When a Grameen clone, Dungganon, asked for expansion funding from a UN agency
This page reviews the inhibiting effect of the value delivery system on the expression of new phenotypic effects within an agent. 
they responded by sending four missions to investigate the proposal, spending thousands of dollars on airline tickets, per diems, and professional fees.  There were bureaucratic complications. The project never received any funds
.  In other words, after nearly five years of specialists reviewing the problem and wasting resources, the poor islanders were unable to receive a single micro-credit loan with support from the agency.  Yunus pointedly comments that the cost of one of the missions would have assisted several hundred poor families. 

He complains that the consultancy business has seriously misled international donor agencies.  The assumption is that:
  • The recipient countries need to be guided at every stage of the process - identification, preparation, implementation of projects. 
  • Donors and consultants tend to become over bearing in their attitude towards the countries they help. 
  • Consultants often have a paralyzing effect on the initiatives of the recipient countries.  Officials and academics in these countries quickly adopt the figures mentioned in the donors' documents even if they personally know that those figures are incorrect. 
He argues that 75% of foreign donor assistance to Bangladesh has been spent outside of the country on: equipment, commodities, and consultants from the donor country. 

p149 incorrect but widely held assumptions about poverty
Yunus comments that when he talked about micro-credit in the 1980s to World Bank Economists, or Journalists most people assumed that the Grameen strategy was to alleviate poverty by providing credit to small businesses, that would expand and hire the poor.  It took people a while he writes for them to see that Yunus was advocating lending directly to the poor. 

Yunus argues that policy makers tend to equate job creation with poverty reduction and economists measure only one type of employment -- salaried employment.  Since Economists also tended to focus research and theories on how wealth is created in former colonial powers. 

Poverty was only studied in Developmental Economics, a recent branch with limited investment. 

Yunus comments that economists failed to understand the social power of credit.  In economics credit is seen as a means to lubricate the wheels of trade, commerce and industry.  Yunus contends that the reality is different -- Credit creates
This page reviews the strategy of setting up an arms race.  At its core this strategy depends on being able to alter, or take advantage of an alteration in, the genome or equivalent.  The situation is illustrated with examples from biology, high tech and politics. 
economic power, which quickly translates into social power
.  Credit institutions and banks can favor a distinct section of the population.  That section increases both its economic and social status.  In both Rich and Poor countries credit institutions have favored the rich and in so doing have
This page reviews the inhibiting effect of the value delivery system on the expression of new phenotypic effects within an agent. 
pronounced a death sentence on the poor


p153 Applications in other poor countries
Yunus describes how a Malaysian clone of Grameen was developed.  Particularly notable were the two key sets of challenges the clone encountered:
  1. Building a Grameen program from scratch
  2. Finding an appropriate legal framework to distance the program from governmental control without losing financial support. 
The Asia and Pacific development center (APDC) provided seed funding initially. 

As problems piled up the leaders came back to Grameen for refresher training, and Grameen sent its senior staff to assist.  As the Malaysian organization came to understand the logic of the Grameen methodologies they modified their program to more closely match Grameen.  The result has been CASHPOR a Grameen replication programs association which has brought micro-credit to half of Malaysia's families living below the poverty line.  As a result of these experiences David Gibbons published the Grameen Reader. 

p159 It depends on your model of a situation what conclusions you come to
Yunus describes the development of CARD a Filipino program for the LandlessPeople's Fund of the Center for Agriculture and Rural Development.  While it rapidly gained nine thousand borrowers, an excellent repayment rate and seven branches, when Yunus asked the German Government to provide it with expansion funding the request was turned down.  The German agency argued that CARD was considered a failure.  Yunus was keen to understand why.  He was told a thorough study had been performed and everyone who had read the report agreed that CARD was not worth funding. 

Yunus was not able to get a copy of the report.  Keen to understand the miss-match he reviewed the situation with the CARD team.  Initially they said there had never been a German study at CARD, but subsequently said a German man, who did not say he was an evaluator from the German Government had visited the CARD head office.  He had expressed no interest in visiting with borrowers. 

Yunus solution was to get an independent assessment of CARD and publish the findings.  Dr. Mahabub Hossain did the assessment.  He concluded:
  • CARD borrowers are very poor; 70% of them are completely landless and own houses worth less than $550.
  • CARD borrowers use their loans for business; 97% of borrowed money is invested in income-generating activities. 
  • CARD loans make a big difference; borrower' average rate of return on investment is 117%
  • CARD generates jobs; economic activities financed by CARD loans generated 163 days of employment for CARD borrowers each year and an additional 84 days for other family members
  • CARD generates productive employment; the labor productivity in CARD-financed businesses is 36% higher than the prevailing wage rate. 
Still further assessments by international institutions did not concur.  The United Nations in 1988 released a report about micro-lending programs that argued:
  • Many people, especially the poorest of the poor, are usually not in a position to undertake an economic activity, partly because they lack business skills and even the motivation for business. 
  • Furthermore, it is not clear if the extent to which micro-credit has spread, or can potentially spread, can make a major dent in global poverty. 

p167 The issue with international loans
A vice-president of the World Bank Ismail Serageldin was interested in providing a $98 million loan to Grameen so that it would be able to finance other micro-loan institutions worldwide.  However, Yunus describes challenges that make this impossible:
  • The World Bank may require a government guarantee for the loan.  There is no reason for a government to make that guarantee and the Grameen bank does not want to be beholden to a government decision maker. 
  • The Grameen bank trust given the loan would not be able to repay the loan, since their goal is to lend to projects that operate in local currencies.  Even when they get their full repayment there is no way the local currency will still correspond to the dollar loan amount.  Grameen does not want to perform the hedging etc. necessary to offset the currency drifts. 
Yunus's solution to obtain $100 million was instead to ask for pure donations of $100 collected from a million donors.  The management agency, the peoples fund, operating the process would be financed separately.  They would do the advertising, coordination etc. 

10 Applications in the US & other wealthy countries
p189 Micro-credit in Europe clashes with welfare rules
In the US Yunus architecture was criticized almost universally as inappropriate - the skepticism was based on the belief that there was nothing that would raise these people out of poverty, and so solutions must strive to alleviate the symptoms, with the welfare state blamed for inducing a lazy under-class of dysfunctional individuals:
  • Chicagoans needed jobs, training, healthcare, and protection from drugs and violence, not micro-loans social activists, bankers, economists and community leaders said. 
  • Self-employment was a primitive concept lingering in the third world, and Chicago poor had no skills anyway. 
  • Grameen requires groups which are against the natural independence of American women. 
Yunus, argues that the poor are very creative, and after Bill Clinton promoted the Grameen concept as Arkansas Governor and then as President there were some US based examples so he was able to describe how women in challenging poor Spanish speaking Chicago communities were over joyed to find friendship, support of a like-minded group, as well as the freedom from obtaining credit to become self-supporting. 

Yunus describes the tenacity of the European social welfare system as his greatest nemesis.  Over, and over, Grameen clones run in to the same problem: Recipients of monthly handouts from the government feel as afraid to start a business as the purdah-covered women in Bengali villages.  Many calculate the amount of welfare money and insurance coverage they would lose by becoming self-employed and conclude the risk is not worth the effort. 

...

Often, even when the law allows a poor person to own a business, charity program operators will not allow it.  One young man, newly out of prison, wanted to start up a French fries stand.  The Parisian charity that housed him would not accept this independence.  Instead, it opened the stand and hired the man as a salaried employee. 

Rosalind Copisarow, a polish graduate of Oxford University and Wharton school of business, became an executive with J.P.Morgan, but convinced that micro-credit was what Poland needed she left the bank and setup to adapt Grameen to Poland.  Her team examined 200 methodologies and tested nine pilot models.  She developed Fundusz Mikro with 20 branches, four thousand clients and a repayment rate of 98.5% and loans of $10 million. 

p191 Group focus creates reinforcing clusters
Yunus argues that with Grameen's group based approach to developing female entrepreneurs the clusters create friendships, and support groups, that enhance the attractiveness of the locality.  A variety of schemes are sited that have encouraged young women to stay in their societies, which has then resulted in the young males also staying local, reversing trends of serious depopulation. 
Schematic space of chess move strings

  • Game 83 Queen's Gambit declined Black: Maroczy (B c8 fails to deploy, d5 defended by e6 - neither exchanges d5 in the opening!, 6 ... N e4,)
    • 1.  d4 N f6 2. c4 e6 3. N f3 d5 4. Kt c3 B e7 5. Bg5 o-o
    • 6. e3 Kt e4 Alekhine comments this defense has been used by Lasker & Capablanca against Marshall, simplifying the game and not creating any weaknesses.
    • 7. B*B Q*B
    •  8. Q b3 Alekhine justifies this move due to his dislike of 8. p*p(d5) Kt*Kt(c3) 9. p*Kt(c3), p*p(d5) 10. Q b3 R d8 11. c4 Kt c6! as it leaves Black equal.  He admits 8. Qc2 was more forceful.  Maroczy then must take the Knight.
    • 8 ...  Kt*Kt(c3) 9. Q*Kt(c3) c6 10. B d3 kt d7 11. o-o f5
    • 12 R(a1) c1! Alekhine makes anticipatory preparations assuming 12 ... Kt f6 & 13 ... Kt e4.
    • 12 ... g5 ??
    • 13. Kt d2! KR f7?? 14. f3 e5 Alekhine explains how Black aims to force an exchange of Queens on 18 - but Alekhine has a clever answer.
    • 15. c4*d5 Alekhine starts to attack - clearing the c file
    • 15 ... c6*d5 16. e4! and opening up a central fight
    • 16 ... f5*e4 17. f3*e4 R*R(f1)ch
    • 18. R*R e5*d4 Black attacking the White Queen with backup of his Queen+Knight.
    • 19. Q c7! K g7 20. R f5! d5*e4 21. Kt*e4 Q b4 22. R*p(g5)ch Black resigns
  • Sicilian 1. e4 c5
    • Znosko-Borovsky Euwe London 1922 in Capablanca Primer p141
1. e4 c5 2. N f3 N c6 3. d4 c*d4 4. N*d4 N f6 5. N c3 d6 6. B e2 e6 7. o-o B e7 8. K h1 o-o 9. B e3 B d7 10. f4 Q c7 11. B f3 B d7 12. N(d) b5 Q b8 13 e5 d*e5 14. f* e5 Q*e5 15. R e1 Q b8 16. Q d2 R(f)d8 17. B f4 e5 18. B g3 a6 19. N a3 B g4 20. Q e3 B*f3 21. g*f3 B*a3 22. b*a3 Q d6
23. B h4
23 ... R e8
24. R g1 N e7 25. R(a) d1 Q c6 26. B*f6 Q*f6 27. N e4 Q c6 28. N d6 N g6 29. N*e8 Q*e8 30. Q b6 Q e7 31. R d2 h6 32. R(g)d1 K h7 33. R d7 Q h4 34. Q b3 N e7 35. R g1 Q f6 36. Q*b7 R c6 37. Q b3 e4 38. Q e3 R e6 39. f*e4 Q h4 40. e5 Q h5 41. Q e4+ g6 42. Q f4 K g7 43. R f1 N f5 44. R e1 Q h3 45. R d3 Q h5 46. c4 R e7 47. c5 R b7 48. e6 N h4 49. e7 Q e2 50. Q d4+
  • Closed Defense Armenian at coffee shop
1.e4 c5 2. N c3 N c6 3. g3 g6 4. B b2 B g7 5. d3 d6
6. f4
  • Closed Defense Potemkin Alekhine
1. ef c5 2. g3 g6 3. B g2 B g7 4. N e2 N c6 5. c3 N f6 6. N a3?
6 ... d5 7. e*d5 N*d5 8. N c2 o-o 9. d4 c*d4 10. c*d4
10 ... B g4 11. f3 B f5 12. N e3
12 ... Q a5+
13. K f2 N(d) b4 14. N*f5 Q*f5 15. g4
15 ... N d3+
16 K g3?
16 ... N*d4! 17. g*f5 N*f5+ 0-1 as
18. K g4 h5+ 19. K h3 N f2++
  • 1. e4 c5 2. N f3 d6 3. d4 c*d4 4. N*d4 N f6 5. N c3 g6
  • Dragon Defense Alekhine Botvinnik

6. B e2 B g7 7. B e3 N c6 8. N b3 B e6 9. f4
9 ... oo
10. g4
10. oo d5? 11. e5 N e8 12. B f3 N c7  13. N c5 -> 14. N*e6 f*e6 since 13 ... d4 is defeated by 14. B*c6
11 ... d4 12. B*d4
10 ... d5!
11. f5
11 ... B c8 12. e*d5
12 ... N b4
13. d6?
13. B f3! g*f5 14. a3 f*g4 15. B g2 N a6
16. Q d3 e6 17. ooo N*d5 18. h3 g3 19. R(h) g1
19 ... Q d6
20. B*d5 e*d5
21. N*d5
21 ... K h8
22. B f4 Q g6 23 Q f3!
13 ... Q*d6? 14. B c5 Q f4! 15. R f1 Q*h2 16. B*b4 N*g4! 17. B*g4 Q g3+ 18. R f2 Q g1+ 19. R f1 Q g3+ 20. R f2 Q g1+ =
13 ... e*d6! 14. a3 N c6 15. g5 R e8!
16. g* f6 R *e3 17. f*g7 Q h4+ 18. 18. K d2 Q h6 19. K e1 Black has excellent chances
16. B d4 N*d4 17. N*d4 N g4 18. f6 B*f6 19. g*f6 Q*f6 20. R f1 Q h4+ 21. K d2 N e3 22. N f3 Q h6 ++
16. B f2 N e4 17. N*e4 R*e4 18. f6 B g4 19. N c1 Q a5+ 20. Q d2 Q e5 21. K f1 Q*b2 22. B *g4 R*g4 23. R a2 Q b5+ 24. N e2 R e4 25. f*g7 R*e2 26. Q*e2 Q b1+ with advantage to Black. 
11. e5
11 ... d4! 12. N*d4 N*d4 13. B*d4 N*g4! 14. B*g4 B*g4 and Black preserves the material balance while gaining the advantage with regard to space, position and time relative to the situation with 10. oo
10 ... N a5
11. g5 N e8 12. B d4 R c8 13. h4 N c4 14. B*c4 R*c4 15. Q d3 R c8
16. ooo Q d7 17. R d2 B g4 18. N d5 b6 19. f5! e6 20. B*g7 K*g7 21. f6+ K h8 22. N e7 R d8 23. N d4 Q a4 24. K b1 N c7 25. h5 g*h5 26. R(d)h2 R d7 27. e5 R*e7 28. R*h5 B*h5 29. R*h5 1-0
  • Dragon Topalov Carlsen Bilbao 2008
6. B e3 B g7
7. f3 N c6
8. Q d2 oo
9. B c4 B d7
10. ooo R c8 11. B b3 N e5 12. K b1 a6
13. h4 h5 14. g4 h*g 15. h5 N*h5 16. R(d) g1 R c5
17. B h6 K h7 18. B g7 K g7 19. f4 N c4 20. B*c4 R*c4 21. f5
21 ... e5?
21 ... R h8
22. N(d) e2 R h8 23. b3 R c6 24. R g4 N f6
25. R(g) g1 R h1 26. R h1 N g4 27. N g3 K g8 28. N d5 R c5 29. N e3 N*e3 30. Q*e3 Q f6 31. Q h6 Q g7 32. Q g5 f6
33. Q d2 R c6
34. K b2
34. Q a5! b6 35. Q a6 R c8 36. Q b7
34 ... g*f 35. Q a5 Q e7 36. Q d5+ B e6 37. Q d1 Q g7 38. e*f B f7 39. N e4 K f8
40. N d6 K e7 41. N b7 Q g8
42. Q d2
42. R h7! Q*h7?? 43. Q d8 mate
42 ... R c2 43. Q c2 Q h7 44. Q c5 K d7 45. Q d6 K c8 46. Q c6 K b8 47. N c5 B e8 48. Q e8 White is winning
42 ... R b6
43. R d1 Q c8 44. N d6 Q d7 45. N f7 Q d2 46. R d2 K f7 47. c4 K e7 48. K c3 48 ... resigns with White in a winning position

  • Unknown & Irregular opening moves
    • Alekhines Greatest Games Bk 2 Game 9 Irregular Queen's Indian Defense Black: F Marshall. 
    • 1. d4 Kt f5 2. c4
    • 2 ... d5. 
    • 3. p*p Kt*p 4. e4 Kt f6 5. B d3 e5 
    • 6. p*p Kt g4 7. kt f3 kt c6 8. B g5! B e7 9. B*B Q*B 10. Kt c3 Kt(c6) e5*
    • p 11. Kt*Kt Q*Kt?
      12. Q d2 B d7,
      13. Q e3
    • 13 ... B c6
    • 14. o-o-o o-o 15. f4 Q e6 16. e5 KR e8 17. KR e1 QR d8
    • 18. f5 Q e2 19. Q g5 kt d5 20. f6 Q f8
    • 21. B c4! Kt*Kt 22. R*R R*R 23. p*p! Kt*p ch 23. K b1 removing the saving check if he had used B*kt 23 ... Q e8 24. e6 B e4 ch 25. K a1 f5 26. e7 dis ch R d5 27. Q f6 Q f7 28. e8
























Market Centric Workshops
The Physics - Politics, Economics & Evolutionary Psychology
Politics, Economics & Evolutionary Psychology

Business Physics
Nature and nurture drive the business eco-system
Human nature
Emerging structure and dynamic forces of adaptation


integrating quality appropriate for each market
 
This page looks at schematic structures and their uses.  It discusses a number of examples:
  • Schematic ideas are recombined in creativity. 
  • Similarly designers take ideas and rules about materials and components and combine them. 
  • Schematic Recipes help to standardize operations. 
  • Modular components are combined into strategies for use in business plans and business models. 

As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan. 

Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals. 
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings. 
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples. 
Strategy
| Design |
This page uses an example to illustrate how:
  • A business can gain focus from targeting key customers,
  • Business planning activities performed by the whole organization can build awareness, empowerment and coherence. 
  • A program approach can ensure strategic alignment. 
Program Management
| Home

Profiles | Papers | Glossary | E-mail us