This page describes the organizational forces that limit change.
It explains how to overcome
them when necessary.
This page uses an example to illustrate how:
- A business can gain focus from targeting key customers,
- Business planning activities performed by the whole organization can build awareness, empowerment and coherence.
- A program approach can ensure strategic alignment.
This page uses the example of HP's printer organization freeing
itself from its organizational constraints to sell a printer
targeted at the IBM pc user.
The constraints are described.
The techniques to overcome them are implied.
The constraints are described.
The techniques to overcome them are implied.
Communicating and judging through stories
Summary
This page looks at how scenarios allow people to relate to the possible evolution of the business and its products and services. The Long view process is highlighted.Value based customer segmentation is reviewed. Keirsey's psychological categorization and 'crossing the chasm, Geoffrey Moore describes target customer archetypes. His 'Innovator' is a Keirsey personality segmentation rational. His 'Visionary' is an artisan. His 'Pragmatists and Conservatives' are guardians.
' are highlighted.
Three alternate systems are framed as long view scenarios (1) development of a billing mediation business, (2) development of the Grameen Bank the first micro loan bank and (3) some classic chess games.
Some of the scenarios will be referenced in the
The page describes the SWOT
process. That includes:
SWOT and - The classification
of each event into strength weakness opportunity and
threat.
- The clustering
process for grouping the classified events into goals.
- How the clusters
can support planning and execution.
This page looks at schematic structures
and their uses. It discusses a number of examples:
As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan.
Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals.
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings.
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples.
planning
pages of this frame. In particular the complex adaptive
system (- Schematic ideas are recombined in creativity.
- Similarly designers take ideas and rules about materials and components and combine them.
- Schematic Recipes help to standardize operations.
- Modular components are combined into strategies for use in business plans and business models.
As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan.
Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals.
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings.
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples.
This web frame introduces example
real world complex adaptive systems
(CAS):
CAS) goals used will be
referenced by the planning pages schemetic
goals. - Assumptions of randomness & equilibrium allowed the
wealthy & powerful to expand the size and leverage of
stock markets, by placing at risk the insurance and
retirement savings of the working class. The
assumptions are wrong but remain entrenched.
- The US nation was built
from two divergent political
views of: Jefferson and Hamilton. It also
reflects the development of competing ancient ideas of
Epicurus and Cyril. But the collapse of Bretton Woods
forced Wall Street into a position of power, while the
middle and working class were abandoned by the elites.
Housing financed with cash from oil and derivative
transactions helped hide the shift.
- Most US health care is still operating the way cars built in the 1940s did. Geisinger is an example of better solution. But transforming the whole network is a challenge. And public health investment has proved far more beneficial.
- Helping our children learn to be effective adults is part of our humanity, but we have created a robust but deeply flawed education system. Better alternatives have emerged.
- Reading and writing emerged allowing our good ideas to become
a second genetic material.
- The emergence of the global economy in the 1600s and its subsequent development;
Introduction
The current situation is represented as a This page discusses the effect of the network on the agents participating in a complex
adaptive system (CAS). Small
world and scale free networks are considered.
network of The agents in complex adaptive
systems (CAS) must model their
environment to respond effectively to it. Samuel
modeling is described as an approach.
models
of potentially relevant Plans are interpreted and implemented by agents. This page
discusses the properties of agents in a complex adaptive system
(CAS).
It then presents examples of agents in different CAS. The examples include a computer program where modeling and actions are performed by software agents. These software agents are aggregates.
The participation of agents in flows is introduced and some implications of this are outlined.
agents and
significant It then presents examples of agents in different CAS. The examples include a computer program where modeling and actions are performed by software agents. These software agents are aggregates.
The participation of agents in flows is introduced and some implications of this are outlined.
This page discusses the physical foundations of complex adaptive
systems (CAS). A small set of
rules is obeyed. New [epi]phenomena then emerge. Examples are
discussed.
rules present in the
proximate This page discusses the potential of the vast state space which
supports the emergence of complex
adaptive systems (CAS). Kauffman describes the mechanism
by which the system expands across the space.
environment. It is
augmented with alternative scenarios of the near term future to
provide a map for strategic analysis. By capturing
Agents use sensors to detect events in their environment.
This page reviews how these events become signals associated
with beneficial responses in a complex adaptive system (CAS). CAS signals emerge from
the Darwinian information model. Signals can indicate decision summaries and level of
uncertainty.
signals associated with
the current This page discusses the potential of the vast state space which
supports the emergence of complex
adaptive systems (CAS). Kauffman describes the mechanism
by which the system expands across the space.
environment and then
developing The agents in complex adaptive
systems (CAS) must model their
environment to respond effectively to it. Samuel
modeling is described as an approach.
models of the evolving
future, potential This page looks at schematic structures
and their uses. It discusses a number of examples:
As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan.
Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals.
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings.
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples.
strategies to
achieve goals can be evaluated. - Schematic ideas are recombined in creativity.
- Similarly designers take ideas and rules about materials and components and combine them.
- Schematic Recipes help to standardize operations.
- Modular components are combined into strategies for use in business plans and business models.
As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan.
Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals.
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings.
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples.
The collection of environmental signals typically results in some type of labeled classification of models of the current situation. For example in the relatively constrained environment of
This page discusses the tagging of signals
in a complex adaptive system (CAS).
Tagged signals can be used to control filtering of an event
stream. Examples of CAS filters are reviewed.
Chess the initial
moves of each player are categorized into labeled networks of
openings such as the Sicilian, French
and Queen's Gambit. As the initial moves are played the
classifications allow rapid The page reviews how complex systems can be analyzed.
The resulting analysis supports evaluation of system events.
The analysis enables categorization of different events into classes.
The analysis helps with recombination of the models to enable creativity.
The page advocates an iterative approach including support from models.
analysis of
the situation. The resulting analysis supports evaluation of system events.
The analysis enables categorization of different events into classes.
The analysis helps with recombination of the models to enable creativity.
The page advocates an iterative approach including support from models.
Most other systems are more complex. The data capture, categorization and analysis are even less clear cut.
Peter Schwartz's "long view" process enables the development of a number of stories (scenarios) that describe vividly how the future might unfold. Each scenario suggests "
This page discusses the tagging of signals
in a complex adaptive system (CAS).
Tagged signals can be used to control filtering of an event
stream. Examples of CAS filters are reviewed.
flags"
that can be looked for to detect that the scenario is indeed how
the world is developing. Each scenario should aim to
illustrate its use of complex adaptive system ( This web frame introduces example
real world complex adaptive systems
(CAS):
CAS) schematic
goals. These goals are described in the - Assumptions of randomness & equilibrium allowed the
wealthy & powerful to expand the size and leverage of
stock markets, by placing at risk the insurance and
retirement savings of the working class. The
assumptions are wrong but remain entrenched.
- The US nation was built
from two divergent political
views of: Jefferson and Hamilton. It also
reflects the development of competing ancient ideas of
Epicurus and Cyril. But the collapse of Bretton Woods
forced Wall Street into a position of power, while the
middle and working class were abandoned by the elites.
Housing financed with cash from oil and derivative
transactions helped hide the shift.
- Most US health care is still operating the way cars built in the 1940s did. Geisinger is an example of better solution. But transforming the whole network is a challenge. And public health investment has proved far more beneficial.
- Helping our children learn to be effective adults is part of our humanity, but we have created a robust but deeply flawed education system. Better alternatives have emerged.
- Reading and writing emerged allowing our good ideas to become
a second genetic material.
- The emergence of the global economy in the 1600s and its subsequent development;
This page looks at schematic structures
and their uses. It discusses a number of examples:
As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan.
Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals.
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings.
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples.
ideas and plans page. - Schematic ideas are recombined in creativity.
- Similarly designers take ideas and rules about materials and components and combine them.
- Schematic Recipes help to standardize operations.
- Modular components are combined into strategies for use in business plans and business models.
As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan.
Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals.
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings.
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples.
With a "most likely" scenario identified resource, technology and quality
This page looks at schematic structures
and their uses. It discusses a number of examples:
As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan.
Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals.
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings.
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples.
plans can be scoped
appropriately. - Schematic ideas are recombined in creativity.
- Similarly designers take ideas and rules about materials and components and combine them.
- Schematic Recipes help to standardize operations.
- Modular components are combined into strategies for use in business plans and business models.
As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan.
Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals.
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings.
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples.
Customer value and segmentation
The scenarios should involve real customers' needs and wants. They also benefit from being organized by a segmentation strategy. At AWF we use a personality segmentation, Keirsey, Myers-Briggs and Aristotle have noted a personality segmentation reflecting individual/group orientation and theory/practice orientation. Keirsey named the four segments: Rational (i, t), Idealist (g, t), Guardian (g, p) and Artisan (i, p). Geoffrey Moore's chasm crossing strategy can be seen to leverage this personality segmentation. based on values following Keirsey. It's an approach that maps directly to Geoffrey Moore's Crossing the Chasm segmentation. So we would expect early focus on rational technologists with a value proposition aimed at them. This would be followed by targeting of an artisan visionary. Hence the scenarios should be about some of these targets personally known to the scenario developers, or failing that really well documented strangers as in the case of our use of the development of Grameen Bank on this page.A series of history based stories
Below are some details that aim to set the scene and provide
reference for strategic actions. The scenarios include: - 3G mediation
strategy,
- Summaries from Mohammad Yunus story Banker
to the Poor about creating Grameen
Bank,
- Chess games including
- A famous Queen's Gambit described and analyzed in Alekhine's Greatest Games of Chess,
- Various Sicilian openings
including extracts from Capablanka's Primer
of Chess (Sicilian) and
Vukovic's Art
of Attack in Chess (Sicilian
Dragon),
- Irregular Queen's Indian from
Alehhine's Greatest Games of Chess.
Long view details of the mobile communications industry
In 1999 I had to decide how much resource should be allocated to the development of 2.5G and 3G billing mediation is a technology which connects a usage report from a piece of network equipment to a billing, configuration or auditing system. 2.5G, 3G and 4G are generation ids of types of architecture of wireless network equipment. projects at Hewlett-Packard's Cupertino Factory. The best answer would take into account how rapidly mobile network operators is responsible for the operation of a wide area physical network. The network may be wireless or wire line. It typically has subscribers who pay to send voice or data packets over the network. deployed data networks, the associated billing infrastructure and how many of the deployments selected our solution.Wireless data situation
With the data we gathered about the world economy is a human SuperOrganism complex adaptive system (CAS) which operates and controls trade flows within a rich niche. Economics models economies. Robert Gordon has described the evolution of the American economy. Like other CAS economic flows are maintained far from equilibrium by: demand, financial flows and constraints, supply infrastructure constraints, political and military constraints; ensuring wealth, legislative control, legal contracts and power have significant leverage through evolved amplifiers., the growth of the Internet and world-wide-web, and the technical nature of cellular networks our stories indicated most of the significant problems that played out in the period between 1999 and 2001, except September 11 of course.
The initiation of 3G wireless spectrum sales launched all scenarios. These auctions were designed to leverage the positive returns, W. Brian Arthur's conception of how high tech products have positive economic feedback as they deploy. Classical products such as foods have negative returns to scale since they take increasing amounts of land, and distribution infrastructure to support getting them to market. High tech products typically become easier to produce or gain from network effects of being connected together overcoming the negative effects of scale.
economics of
This page discusses the effect of the network on the agents participating in a complex
adaptive system (CAS). Small
world and scale free networks are considered.
networks. The
operator with the most coverage would typically capture the most
subscribers. Network operators would be keen to bid for
the broadest areas of coverage. The politicians realized
that they could capitalize on this by forcing the operators into
a bidding war. Capital is the sum total nonhuman assets that can be owned and exchanged on some market according to Piketty. Capital includes: real property, financial capital and professional capital. It is not immutable instead depending on the state of the society within which it exists. It can be owned by governments (public capital) and private individuals (private capital).
was transferred from the operators to the various
governments. The incumbent wireless network operators is responsible for the operation of a wide area physical network. The network may be wireless or wire line. It typically has subscribers who pay to send voice or data packets over the network. were in a bind. It was necessary to obtain the rights to deploy wireless data networks. But it was not known how they would get subscribers to pay for 'data'. SMS messages were hugely profitable for the operators, so they were the Twinkie that justified some optimism. It was expected that voice revenues would drop over
Carlo Rovelli resolves the paradox of time.
Rovelli initially explains that low level physics does not include time:
time
due to fierce competition. Rovelli initially explains that low level physics does not include time:
- A present that is common throughout the universe does not exist
- Events are only partially ordered. The present is localized
- The difference between past and future is not foundational. It occurs because of state that through our blurring appears particular to us
- Time passes at different speeds dependent on where we are and how fast we travel
- Time's rhythms are due to
the gravitational field
- Our quantized physics shows neither
space nor time, just processes transforming physical
variables.
- Fundamentally there is no time. The basic equations evolve together with events, not things
- Our familiar time emerges
- Our interaction with the world is partial, blurred,
quantum indeterminate
- The ignorance determines the existence of thermal time and entropy that quantifies our uncertainty
- Directionality of time is real
but perspectival. The entropy of the world in
relation to us increases with our thermal time. The
growth of entropy distinguishes past from future: resulting in
traces and memories
- Each human is a
unified being because: we reflect the world, we
formed an image of a unified entity by
interacting with our kind, and because of the perspective
of memory
- The variable time: is one of the variables of the gravitational field. With our scale we don't register quantum fluctuations, making space-time appear determined. At our speed we don't perceive differences in time of different clocks, so we experience a single time: universal, uniform, ordered; which is helpful to our decisions
Network equipment providers, designed built financed and deployed network equipment to network operators. Equipment included voice switches to support telephone calls, data switches to support data network applications to PCs and cell phones, as well as call control systems which told the switches when to break or disallow the connection to a subscriber. were pleased to provide data switches and services to extend the operators networks for data. However, with the data that people were interested residing on the global wire line, a network connection from a network operator to a subscriber device which uses a physical wire to transfer the data packets or voice circuit. It is an alternative to wireless connections where data is transferred over a radio connection.
Internet it was likely that Cisco would use its TCP (TCP), a point-to-point connection oriented protocol specified and standardized by IETF and widely implemented in Internet communications.
/IP (IP), a datagram based connectionless protocol specified by the IETF. It can be used by TCP as its network layer protocol when sending and receiving data packets. routing capabilities and lower cost structure to become a major competitor to the incumbent network equipment providers such as Nortel, Lucent, Alcatel etc. Once an operator had chosen an equipment provider it was likely to be entrenched for the lifetime of the switches. Entrenched competitors used
This page reviews the strategy of bundling multiple products
within a single offer in a complex
adaptive system (CAS). The
mechanism is discussed with examples from biology and
business.
bundling, offering
to fund the network infrastructure as long as they would also
obtain the service contract. In effect as the operators
captured revenue from their subscribers, they would pass on some
to the equipment providers who would then pay off the capital
costs of the equipment they had provided. The deployments
would likely fly into operation. But how would the
subscribers be billed, and what value would they obtain from the
networks? Most wire line Internet use was to access the web. The content was typically free. But cell phones needed to gateway is a transform which allows interconnection of two different types of networks.
to the web pages. Network operators typically controlled the capabilities of cell phones running on their networks. Could the operators constrain their subscribers to accept paying to gain wireless access to the web pages? Paying for products with cell phones would require a totally new way of bundling the network access and the product offer. Movies and music is a complex emergent capability supported by sexual selection and generating pleasure. It transforms the sensing of epiphenomena: Contour, Rhythm, Tempo, Timbre; to induce salient perceptions: Harmony, Key, Loudness, Melody, Meter, Pitch, Reverberation - echo; which allow musicians to show their fitness: superior coordination, creativity, adolescent leadership, stamina; true for birds and humans.
would need much improved cell phones, high capacity networks and clear indications of delivery of the content and ability of the subscriber to pay for this relatively valuable content.
It would be 2007 before the iPhone finally provided consumers with a broadly accepted solution. In 1999 Nokia, Sony, Ericsson and UnwiredPlanet thought they would extend the ubiquitous cell phone oligopoly, groups who together control the majority of market share in a market. If they act together they can exert monopoly control of the market.
into owning access to the new wireless data networks.
Wireless data scenarios
In the aggressive scenario use of wireless data would grow rapidly, and charging would be accepted by the network's subscribers. The expected reduction in voice revenues would be replaced by data revenues and the wireless network operators would be keen to deploy flexible billing solutions to capture payments for use of the new features.A less aggressive scenario would find subscribers adopting wireless data but their expectations would be set by the free fixed Internet which would limit the ability of the network operators to capture revenue for the data services. The deployment of billing would proceed but the failure to replace collapsing voice revenues would limit the capital investment base of the wireless network operators. Testing out of the core network was likely to continue for some time.
A further pessimistic scenario assumed that the operators would fail to identify effective billing strategies but would be forced to buy spectrum and deploy networks. This would encourage the operators to leverage low cost solutions offered by their incumbent providers. Over time the collapse of voice revenues would undermine the operators and the network equipment providers causing a slowdown in deployment.
The assumed likely scenario implied that the interest in wireless data based application billing would pull flexible solutions into the market and then quickly peak and then stall. It allowed us to
Agents can manage uncertainty by limiting
their commitments of resources until the environment contains signals strongly correlated with the
required scenario. This page explains how agents can use Shewhart cycles and SWOT processes to do this.
cap the
allocation of resources to match the preconditions.
The announcements of new handsets, services, and billing
requirements from the operators then provided Agents use sensors to detect events in their environment.
This page reviews how these events become signals associated
with beneficial responses in a complex adaptive system (CAS). CAS signals emerge from
the Darwinian information model. Signals can indicate decision summaries and level of
uncertainty.
signals for us to assess which
scenario was playing out, and how we should adjust our
plans. Muhammad Yunus Banker to the Poor
3 Back in Chittagong
Yunus aimed to help manage and capitalize a capital intensive irrigation system (a deep tube-well) to allow farmers to leverage this existing infrastructure. Still he discovered that the benefits were not accrued equally be all participants. Once the farmers had succeeded in growing extra rice due to the irrigation it had to be harvested. Destitute day labor was paid very little to do this hard physical work. Being landless and asset-less they had to accept the offer. Yunus realized they would never escape their position in this system and neither would their offspring.Yunus concludes 'My experience with Jobra's deep tube-well convinced me to turn my focus on the landless poor. Soon I started arguing that wherever a poverty alleviation program allowed the non-poor to be co-passengers, the poor would soon be elbowed out of the program by those who were better off. In the world of development, if one mixes the poor and the non-poor in a program, the non-poor will always drive out the poor, and the less poor will drive out the more poor, unless protective measures are instituted right at the beginning. In such cases, the non-poor reap the benefits of all that is done in the name of the poor.'
5 A Pilot Project is Born
Not being a banker Yunus was able to define new structures that were better matched to his borrowers than lump sum repayment schedules. He comments 'In structuring our credit program, I decided to do exactly the opposite of traditional banks. To overcome the psychological barrier of parting with large sums, I decided to institute a daily payment program. I made the loan payments so small that borrowers would barely miss the money. And for ease of accounting, I decided to ask that the loans be paid back fully in one year. Thus a 365 taka loan could be repaid at the rate of 1 taka a day over the course of one year.Yunus developed his own delivery-recovery mechanism
Walter Shewhart's iterative development process is found in many
complex adaptive systems (CAS).
The mechanism is reviewed and its value in coping with random
events is explained.
iteratively,
changing ideas and procedures with experience and growth
feedback. He cites the example of Flows of different kinds are essential to the operation of
complex adaptive systems (CAS).
Example flows are outlined. Constraints on flows support the emergence of the systems. Examples of constraints are discussed.
enforcing the formation of local
self-support groups, not allowing loans until a nucleus had
formed and all members have achieved bank certification
and then only allowing one loan until that lender and the group
had demonstrated business success and achieved sustained
repayment. The group approves the loan request of any
member prior to the bank's involvement. A nearby cluster
of groups are encouraged to help each other. This ensures:Example flows are outlined. Constraints on flows support the emergence of the systems. Examples of constraints are discussed.
- Peer cluster
pressure to This page reviews the strategy of setting up an arms race. At its core this strategy depends on being able to alter, or take advantage of an alteration in, the genome or equivalent. The situation is illustrated with examples from biology, high tech and politics.conform, learn, support and achieve. Only highly motivated peers will achieve formation of a group so any that do form are likely to succeed.
- This page reviews the catalytic impact of infrastructure on the expression of phenotypic effects by an agent. The infrastructure reduces the cost the agent must pay to perform the selected action. The catalysis is enhanced by positive returns.Low costs and scalability for the bank.
- Simple to understand and administer lending &
repayment operations:
- Loans last one year.
- Installments are paid weekly.
- Repayments start one week after the loan.
- Interest rate is 20%
- Repayment amounts to 2% of the loan each week for 50 weeks
- Interest payments amount to 2 taka per week for every 1,000 taka of the loan amount.
p71 Social
convention constrains Bangladeshi women
Yunus complains that This page describes the consequences of the asymmetries caused
by eggs being provided with costly resources from its
mother. This presents positional opportunities for the
mother's genes to gain advantage over the father and
offspring.
The effect of this asymmetry is to limit the impacts of both offspring and father on the mother. The strategies are outlined.
Bangladesh's
financial institutions are gender biased. It took
six years for Grameen to build up its women borrowers to be half
of its customer base. The Bangladeshi banks have women's
branches. However, they are interested in rich women's
deposits. If even a rich woman wants to borrow money from
a bank, the manager will ask her 'Did you discuss this with your
husband?'. And if she answers yes the manager will say,
'Is he supportive of your proposal?' If the answer is
still 'Yes,' he will say, 'Would you please bring your husband
along so we can discuss it with him.' But complains Yunus
the reverse would never happen. Hence Yunus is not
surprised that Women are less than 1% of borrowers from
Bangladeshi banks. The banking system was created for
men. The effect of this asymmetry is to limit the impacts of both offspring and father on the mother. The strategies are outlined.
p82 Purdah constrains Bangladeshi women
The low cost structure of Grameen is maintained by limiting the resources utilized by the administrative system. However, given the exceptional education level of the management outsiders typically are shocked when the working conditions become apparent.Yunus describes a highly capable manager, who has struggled to obtain her families agreement to her working at Grameen. However, in part the agreement is due to her explaining her senior role as a banker. When her brother visits the Grameen branch he is aghast and the whole family riles at her directly dealing with the poor in their villages.
Yunus explains how it takes much argument to convince the woman's mother of the significance of the role. Eventually as the mother becomes more accustomed she becomes a big supporter. Still it indicates the
This page reviews the inhibiting effect of the value delivery system on the
expression of new phenotypic
effects within an agent.
difficulty
of overcoming the cultural constraints. 6 Expanding beyond Jobra into Tangail
p98
Dedicated young fighters make excellent workers in comparison
to the problems with the agents provided by the Banks
The national bank staff turned out to be highly
unreliable. However, the ex-Gonobahini, an underground Marxist dissident movement 'The People's Army' of Tangail in Bangladesh. Some of them realized that the fledgling Grameen bank was achieving their social goals peacefully. They left the guerrillas and became effective representatives of the bank. , were young,
hardworking and dedicated. They had wanted to liberate the
country with guns and revolution, but instead were pleased to
walk into the same villages extending loans to the
destitute. Yunus argues they just
needed a cause to work for. Equally he found that
these workers were easily able to accept and leverage the
Grameen principles while others with
"experience" in banking struggled with the unusual methods
adopted by Grameen, Deming argued that most new ideas are adopted by new entrants to the field, trained with the new ideas. The incumbents are replaced as they retire, or their positions become non-viable. Just as happened with the germ theory of disease. . Grameen developed an extensive training program for its staff. All this helped ensure effectiveness of the Grameen processes.
The legal structure of Grameen early on required Yunus to give a report monthly to the Central Bank of Bangladesh. The discussions were long and tedious since the managing directors of every participating bank could kidnap the direction. For example when Grameen proposed that its workers be issued flash lights for walking in the villages at night, one Director argued that flash lights would destroy traditional village life!
p111
disruptive system alienates Central Bank
A two year review of Grameen's Tangail activities by the Central
Bank member commercial bank managing directors concluded that
Grameen's success was purely due to: - Yunus and his staff's devotion. Grameen is not
really a bank said one manager. 'Grameen's staff does
not work banker's hours, and we banks could not replicate
this model. It needs a Yunus at each branch to scale'.
- Banks lend large amounts to smaller numbers of
clients. They did not like the idea of lending the
very small amounts to huge numbers of people.
p142 international agencies disconnected eco-net
Yunus is critical of the International aid agencies "style" of doing business with the poor. When a Grameen clone, Dungganon, asked for expansion funding from a UN agency This page reviews the inhibiting effect of the value delivery system on the
expression of new phenotypic
effects within an agent.
they responded by sending four missions to
investigate the proposal, spending thousands of dollars on
airline tickets, per diems, and professional fees. There
were bureaucratic complications. The project never received
any funds. In other words, after nearly five years
of specialists reviewing the problem and wasting resources, the
poor islanders were unable to receive a single micro-credit loan
with support from the agency. Yunus pointedly comments
that the cost of one of the missions would have assisted several
hundred poor families. He complains that the consultancy business has seriously misled international donor agencies. The assumption is that:
- The recipient countries need to be guided at every stage
of the process - identification, preparation, implementation
of projects.
- Donors and consultants tend to become over bearing in
their attitude towards the countries they help.
- Consultants often have a paralyzing effect on the
initiatives of the recipient countries. Officials and
academics in these countries quickly adopt the figures
mentioned in the donors' documents even if they personally
know that those figures are incorrect.
p149 incorrect but widely held assumptions about poverty
Yunus comments that when he talked about micro-credit in the 1980s to World Bank Economists, or Journalists most people assumed that the Grameen strategy was to alleviate poverty by providing credit to small businesses, that would expand and hire the poor. It took people a while he writes for them to see that Yunus was advocating lending directly to the poor.Yunus argues that policy makers tend to equate job creation with poverty reduction and economists measure only one type of employment -- salaried employment. Since Economists also tended to focus research and theories on how wealth is created in former colonial powers.
Poverty was only studied in Developmental Economics, a recent branch with limited investment.
Yunus comments that economists failed to understand the social power of credit. In economics credit is seen as a means to lubricate the wheels of trade, commerce and industry. Yunus contends that the reality is different -- Credit creates
This page reviews the strategy of setting up an arms race. At its
core this strategy depends on being able to alter, or take
advantage of an alteration in, the genome
or equivalent. The situation is illustrated with examples
from biology, high tech and politics.
economic power, which quickly translates
into social power. Credit institutions and banks can
favor a distinct section of the population. That section
increases both its economic and social status. In both
Rich and Poor countries credit institutions have favored the
rich and in so doing have This page reviews the inhibiting effect of the value delivery system on the
expression of new phenotypic
effects within an agent.
pronounced a
death sentence on the poor. p153 Applications in other poor countries
Yunus describes how a Malaysian clone of Grameen was developed. Particularly notable were the two key sets of challenges the clone encountered:- Building a Grameen program from scratch
- Finding an appropriate legal framework to distance the
program from governmental control without losing financial
support.
As problems piled up the leaders came back to Grameen for refresher training, and Grameen sent its senior staff to assist. As the Malaysian organization came to understand the logic of the Grameen methodologies they modified their program to more closely match Grameen. The result has been CASHPOR a Grameen replication programs association which has brought micro-credit to half of Malaysia's families living below the poverty line. As a result of these experiences David Gibbons published the Grameen Reader.
p159 It depends on your model of a situation what conclusions you come to
Yunus describes the development of CARD a Filipino program for the LandlessPeople's Fund of the Center for Agriculture and Rural Development. While it rapidly gained nine thousand borrowers, an excellent repayment rate and seven branches, when Yunus asked the German Government to provide it with expansion funding the request was turned down. The German agency argued that CARD was considered a failure. Yunus was keen to understand why. He was told a thorough study had been performed and everyone who had read the report agreed that CARD was not worth funding.Yunus was not able to get a copy of the report. Keen to understand the miss-match he reviewed the situation with the CARD team. Initially they said there had never been a German study at CARD, but subsequently said a German man, who did not say he was an evaluator from the German Government had visited the CARD head office. He had expressed no interest in visiting with borrowers.
Yunus solution was to get an independent assessment of CARD and publish the findings. Dr. Mahabub Hossain did the assessment. He concluded:
- CARD borrowers are very poor; 70% of them are completely landless and own houses worth less than $550.
- CARD borrowers use their loans for business; 97% of
borrowed money is invested in income-generating
activities.
- CARD loans make a big difference; borrower' average rate of return on investment is 117%
- CARD generates jobs; economic activities financed by CARD loans generated 163 days of employment for CARD borrowers each year and an additional 84 days for other family members
- CARD generates productive employment; the labor
productivity in CARD-financed businesses is 36% higher than
the prevailing wage rate.
- Many people, especially the poorest of the poor, are
usually not in a position to undertake an economic activity,
partly because they lack business skills and even the
motivation for business.
- Furthermore, it is not clear if the extent to which
micro-credit has spread, or can potentially spread, can make
a major dent in global poverty.
p167 The issue with international loans
A vice-president of the World Bank Ismail Serageldin was interested in providing a $98 million loan to Grameen so that it would be able to finance other micro-loan institutions worldwide. However, Yunus describes challenges that make this impossible:- The World Bank may require a government guarantee for the
loan. There is no reason for a government to make that
guarantee and the Grameen bank does not want to be beholden
to a government decision maker.
- The Grameen bank trust given the loan would not be able to
repay the loan, since their goal is to lend to projects that
operate in local currencies. Even when they get their
full repayment there is no way the local currency will still
correspond to the dollar loan amount. Grameen does not
want to perform the hedging etc. necessary to offset the
currency drifts.
10 Applications in the US & other wealthy countries
p189 Micro-credit in Europe clashes with welfare rules
In the US Yunus architecture was criticized almost universally as inappropriate - the skepticism was based on the belief that there was nothing that would raise these people out of poverty, and so solutions must strive to alleviate the symptoms, with the welfare state blamed for inducing a lazy under-class of dysfunctional individuals:- Chicagoans needed jobs, training, healthcare, and
protection from drugs and violence, not micro-loans social
activists, bankers, economists and community leaders
said.
- Self-employment was a primitive concept lingering in the
third world, and Chicago poor had no skills anyway.
- Grameen requires groups which are against the natural
independence of American women.
Yunus describes the tenacity of the European social welfare system as his greatest nemesis. Over, and over, Grameen clones run in to the same problem: Recipients of monthly handouts from the government feel as afraid to start a business as the purdah-covered women in Bengali villages. Many calculate the amount of welfare money and insurance coverage they would lose by becoming self-employed and conclude the risk is not worth the effort.
...
Often, even when the law allows a poor person to own a business, charity program operators will not allow it. One young man, newly out of prison, wanted to start up a French fries stand. The Parisian charity that housed him would not accept this independence. Instead, it opened the stand and hired the man as a salaried employee.
Rosalind Copisarow, a polish graduate of Oxford University and Wharton school of business, became an executive with J.P.Morgan, but convinced that micro-credit was what Poland needed she left the bank and setup to adapt Grameen to Poland. Her team examined 200 methodologies and tested nine pilot models. She developed Fundusz Mikro with 20 branches, four thousand clients and a repayment rate of 98.5% and loans of $10 million.
p191 Group focus creates reinforcing clusters
Yunus argues that with Grameen's group based approach to developing female entrepreneurs the clusters create friendships, and support groups, that enhance the attractiveness of the locality. A variety of schemes are sited that have encouraged young women to stay in their societies, which has then resulted in the young males also staying local, reversing trends of serious depopulation.Schematic
space of chess move strings
- Game 83 Queen's Gambit declined Black: Maroczy (B c8 fails to deploy, d5 defended by e6 - neither exchanges d5 in the opening!, 6 ... N e4,)
- 1. d4 N f6 2. c4 e6 3. N f3 d5 4. Kt c3 B e7 5. Bg5 o-o
- 6. e3 Kt e4 Alekhine comments this defense has been used by Lasker & Capablanca against Marshall, simplifying the game and not creating any weaknesses.
- 7. B*B Q*B
- 8. Q b3 Alekhine justifies this move due to his dislike of 8. p*p(d5) Kt*Kt(c3) 9. p*Kt(c3), p*p(d5) 10. Q b3 R d8 11. c4 Kt c6! as it leaves Black equal. He admits 8. Qc2 was more forceful. Maroczy then must take the Knight.
- 8 ... Kt*Kt(c3) 9. Q*Kt(c3) c6 10. B d3 kt d7 11. o-o f5
- 12 R(a1) c1! Alekhine makes anticipatory preparations assuming 12 ... Kt f6 & 13 ... Kt e4.
- 12 ... g5 ??
- 13. Kt d2! KR f7?? 14. f3 e5 Alekhine explains how Black aims to force an exchange of Queens on 18 - but Alekhine has a clever answer.
- 15. c4*d5 Alekhine starts to attack - clearing the c file
- 15 ... c6*d5 16. e4! and opening up a central fight
- 16 ... f5*e4 17. f3*e4 R*R(f1)ch
- 18. R*R e5*d4 Black attacking the White Queen with backup of his Queen+Knight.
- 19. Q c7! K g7 20. R f5! d5*e4 21. Kt*e4 Q b4 22. R*p(g5)ch Black resigns
1. e4 c5 2. N f3 N c6 3. d4
c*d4 4. N*d4 N f6 5. N c3 d6 6. B e2 e6 7. o-o B e7 8. K h1
o-o 9. B e3 B d7 10. f4 Q c7 11. B f3 B d7 12. N(d) b5 Q b8 13
e5 d*e5 14. f* e5 Q*e5 15. R e1 Q b8 16. Q d2 R(f)d8 17. B f4
e5 18. B g3 a6 19. N a3 B g4 20. Q e3 B*f3 21. g*f3 B*a3 22.
b*a3 Q d6
23. B h4
23 ... R e8
24. R g1 N e7 25. R(a) d1 Q c6 26. B*f6 Q*f6 27. N e4 Q c6 28. N d6 N g6 29. N*e8 Q*e8 30. Q b6 Q e7 31. R d2 h6 32. R(g)d1 K h7 33. R d7 Q h4 34. Q b3 N e7 35. R g1 Q f6 36. Q*b7 R c6 37. Q b3 e4 38. Q e3 R e6 39. f*e4 Q h4 40. e5 Q h5 41. Q e4+ g6 42. Q f4 K g7 43. R f1 N f5 44. R e1 Q h3 45. R d3 Q h5 46. c4 R e7 47. c5 R b7 48. e6 N h4 49. e7 Q e2 50. Q d4+
23. B h4
23 ... R e8
24. R g1 N e7 25. R(a) d1 Q c6 26. B*f6 Q*f6 27. N e4 Q c6 28. N d6 N g6 29. N*e8 Q*e8 30. Q b6 Q e7 31. R d2 h6 32. R(g)d1 K h7 33. R d7 Q h4 34. Q b3 N e7 35. R g1 Q f6 36. Q*b7 R c6 37. Q b3 e4 38. Q e3 R e6 39. f*e4 Q h4 40. e5 Q h5 41. Q e4+ g6 42. Q f4 K g7 43. R f1 N f5 44. R e1 Q h3 45. R d3 Q h5 46. c4 R e7 47. c5 R b7 48. e6 N h4 49. e7 Q e2 50. Q d4+
1. ef c5 2. g3 g6 3. B g2 B g7
4. N e2 N c6 5. c3 N f6 6. N a3?
6 ... d5 7. e*d5 N*d5 8. N c2 o-o 9. d4 c*d4 10. c*d4
10 ... B g4 11. f3 B f5 12. N e3
12 ... Q a5+
13. K f2 N(d) b4 14. N*f5 Q*f5 15. g4
15 ... N d3+
16 K g3?
16 ... N*d4! 17. g*f5 N*f5+ 0-1 as
18. K g4 h5+ 19. K h3 N f2++
6 ... d5 7. e*d5 N*d5 8. N c2 o-o 9. d4 c*d4 10. c*d4
10 ... B g4 11. f3 B f5 12. N e3
12 ... Q a5+
13. K f2 N(d) b4 14. N*f5 Q*f5 15. g4
15 ... N d3+
16 K g3?
16 ... N*d4! 17. g*f5 N*f5+ 0-1 as
18. K g4 h5+ 19. K h3 N f2++
6. B e2 B g7 7. B e3 N c6 8. N b3 B e6 9. f4
9 ... oo
10. g4
10.
oo d5? 11. e5 N e8 12. B f3 N c7 13. N c5 -> 14.
N*e6 f*e6 since 13 ... d4 is defeated by 14. B*c6
11 ... d4 12. B*d4
10
... d5! 11 ... d4 12. B*d4
11.
f5
11 ... B c8 12. e*d5
12 ... N b4
13. d6?
11 ... B c8 12. e*d5
12 ... N b4
13. d6?
13.
B f3! g*f5 14. a3 f*g4 15. B g2 N a6
16. Q d3 e6 17. ooo N*d5 18. h3 g3 19. R(h) g1
19 ... Q d6
20. B*d5 e*d5
21. N*d5
21 ... K h8
22. B f4 Q g6 23 Q f3!
13
... Q*d6? 14. B c5 Q f4! 15. R f1 Q*h2 16. B*b4 N*g4! 17.
B*g4 Q g3+ 18. R f2 Q g1+ 19. R f1 Q g3+ 20. R f2 Q g1+ =16. Q d3 e6 17. ooo N*d5 18. h3 g3 19. R(h) g1
19 ... Q d6
20. B*d5 e*d5
21. N*d5
21 ... K h8
22. B f4 Q g6 23 Q f3!
13
... e*d6! 14. a3 N c6 15. g5 R e8!
16.
g* f6 R *e3 17. f*g7 Q h4+ 18. 18. K d2 Q h6 19. K e1
Black has excellent chances
16. B d4 N*d4 17. N*d4 N g4 18. f6 B*f6 19. g*f6 Q*f6 20. R f1 Q h4+ 21. K d2 N e3 22. N f3 Q h6 ++
16. B f2 N e4 17. N*e4 R*e4 18. f6 B g4 19. N c1 Q a5+ 20. Q d2 Q e5 21. K f1 Q*b2 22. B *g4 R*g4 23. R a2 Q b5+ 24. N e2 R e4 25. f*g7 R*e2 26. Q*e2 Q b1+ with advantage to Black.
16. B d4 N*d4 17. N*d4 N g4 18. f6 B*f6 19. g*f6 Q*f6 20. R f1 Q h4+ 21. K d2 N e3 22. N f3 Q h6 ++
16. B f2 N e4 17. N*e4 R*e4 18. f6 B g4 19. N c1 Q a5+ 20. Q d2 Q e5 21. K f1 Q*b2 22. B *g4 R*g4 23. R a2 Q b5+ 24. N e2 R e4 25. f*g7 R*e2 26. Q*e2 Q b1+ with advantage to Black.
11.
e5
11 ... d4! 12. N*d4 N*d4 13. B*d4 N*g4! 14. B*g4 B*g4 and Black preserves the material balance while gaining the advantage with regard to space, position and time relative to the situation with 10. oo.
10 ... N a5
11 ... d4! 12. N*d4 N*d4 13. B*d4 N*g4! 14. B*g4 B*g4 and Black preserves the material balance while gaining the advantage with regard to space, position and time relative to the situation with 10. oo.
10 ... N a5
- Dragon Topalov Carlsen Bilbao 2008
6. B e3 B g7
7. f3 N c6
8. Q d2 oo
9. B c4 B d7
10. ooo R c8 11. B b3 N e5 12. K b1 a6
13. h4 h5 14. g4 h*g 15. h5 N*h5 16. R(d) g1 R c5
17. B h6 K h7 18. B g7 K g7 19. f4 N c4 20. B*c4 R*c4 21. f5
21 ... e5?
25. R(g) g1 R h1 26. R h1 N g4 27. N g3 K g8 28. N d5 R c5 29. N e3 N*e3 30. Q*e3 Q f6 31. Q h6 Q g7 32. Q g5 f6
33. Q d2 R c6
34. K b2
40. N d6 K e7 41. N b7 Q g8
42. Q d2
43. R d1 Q c8 44. N d6 Q d7 45. N f7 Q d2 46. R d2 K f7 47. c4 K e7 48. K c3 48 ... resigns with White in a winning position
7. f3 N c6
8. Q d2 oo
9. B c4 B d7
10. ooo R c8 11. B b3 N e5 12. K b1 a6
13. h4 h5 14. g4 h*g 15. h5 N*h5 16. R(d) g1 R c5
17. B h6 K h7 18. B g7 K g7 19. f4 N c4 20. B*c4 R*c4 21. f5
21 ... e5?
21 ... R h8
22. N(d) e2 R h8
23. b3 R c6 24. R g4 N f6 25. R(g) g1 R h1 26. R h1 N g4 27. N g3 K g8 28. N d5 R c5 29. N e3 N*e3 30. Q*e3 Q f6 31. Q h6 Q g7 32. Q g5 f6
33. Q d2 R c6
34. K b2
34. Q a5! b6 35. Q a6 R c8
36. Q b7
34 ... g*f 35. Q a5 Q e7 36. Q d5+ B e6 37. Q d1 Q g7 38.
e*f B f7 39. N e4 K f8 40. N d6 K e7 41. N b7 Q g8
42. Q d2
42. R h7! Q*h7?? 43. Q d8
mate
42 ... R b6 42 ... R c2 43. Q c2 Q h7
44. Q c5 K d7 45. Q d6 K c8 46. Q c6 K b8 47. N c5 B e8
48. Q e8 White is winning
43. R d1 Q c8 44. N d6 Q d7 45. N f7 Q d2 46. R d2 K f7 47. c4 K e7 48. K c3 48 ... resigns with White in a winning position
- Unknown & Irregular opening moves
- Alekhines Greatest Games Bk 2
Game 9 Irregular Queen's Indian Defense Black: F
Marshall.
- 1. d4 Kt f5 2. c4
- 2 ... d5.
- 3. p*p Kt*p 4. e4 Kt f6 5. B d3 e5
- 6. p*p Kt g4 7. kt f3 kt c6 8. B g5! B e7 9. B*B Q*B 10. Kt c3 Kt(c6) e5*
- p 11. Kt*Kt Q*Kt?
12. Q d2 B d7,
13. Q e3
- 13 ... B c6
- 14. o-o-o o-o 15. f4 Q e6
16. e5 KR e8 17. KR e1 QR d8
- 18. f5 Q e2 19. Q g5 kt d5
20. f6 Q f8
- 21. B c4! Kt*Kt 22. R*R R*R
23. p*p! Kt*p ch 23. K b1 removing the saving check if he
had used B*kt 23 ... Q e8 24. e6 B e4 ch 25. K a1 f5 26.
e7 dis ch R d5 27. Q f6 Q f7 28. e8
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Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals.
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings.
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples.
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As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan.
Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals.
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings.
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples.
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