Adaptive planning
Rob, emerges from triangles & ovals
Rob, emerges from triangles & ovals
Primary Navigation

Framework for adaptive planning and execution

This activity creates the software products required to support a vision of building a thinking means operating by iteratively:
  • Executing a planning network. 
  • Validate the results relative to the predictions of models associated with the plan's goals and developed to qualify these goals.  Models will include:
    • External cultural assumptions and internal emotionally aligned constraints. 
      • For healthcare providers this could indicate how closely they study and follow Geisinger's reengineering approach.  But as many hospitals were previously advised by consultants to focus on their 'core' business, most sold off their insurance networks, which are hard to recreate due to network effects.  
    • Plan of action's priorities, success and failure criteria, and quality metrics.  
    • Prior records of 'similar' operations, including their emotional, cultural and financial impact.  
      • For Geisinger's transformation this involved the inhumane 'processing' of the CEO's father, and the disastrous merger of the hospital with the local AMC. 
  • Adjust the goals, strategies and priorities based on the validation.  
    • The adjustment process should avoid huge step changes.  Incremental shifts can be safely reviewed and consolidated using Samuel's approch. 
  • Update the planning network. 
enterprise, using an initial mission targeting the thinking
The structure and problems of the US health care network is described in terms of complex adaptive system (CAS) theory. 

The network:
  • Is deeply embedded in the US nation state. It reflects the conflict between two opposing visions for the US: high tax with safety net or low tax without.  The emergence of a parasitic elite supported by tax policy, further constrains the choices available to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the network.  
    • The US is optimized to sell its citizens dangerous levels of: salt, sugar, cigarettes, guns, light, cell phones, opioids, costly education, global travel, antibacterials, formula, foods including endocrine disrupters;
    • Accepting the US controlled global supply chain's offered goods & services results in: debt, chronic stress, amplified consumption and toxic excess, leading to obesity, addiction, driving instead of walking, microbiome collapse;
    • Globalization connects disparate environments in a network.  At the edges, humans are drastically altering the biosphere.  That is reducing the proximate natural environment's connectedness, and leaving its end-nodes disconnected and far less diverse.  This disconnects predators from their prey, often resulting in local booms and busts that transform the local parasite network and their reservoir and amplifier hosts.  The situation is setup so that man is introduced to spillover from the local parasites' hosts.  Occasionally, but increasingly, the spillover results in humanity becoming broadly infected.  The evolved specialization of the immune system to the proximate environment during development becomes undermined as the environment transforms. 
  • Is incented to focus on localized competition generating massive & costly duplication of services within physician based health care operations instead of proven public health strategies.  This process drives increasing research & treatment complexity and promotes hope for each new technological breakthrough. 
  • Is amplified by the legislatively structured separation and indirection of service development, provision, reimbursement and payment. 
  • Is impacted by the different political strategies for managing the increasing cost of health care for the demographic bulge of retirees.  
  • Is presented with acute and chronic problems to respond to.  As currently setup the network is tuned to handle acute problems.  The interactions with patients tend to be transactional. 
  • Includes a legislated health insurance infrastructure which is:
    • Costly and inefficient
    • Structured around yearly contracts which undermine long-term health goals and strategies.  
  • Is supported by increasingly regulated HCIT which offers to improve data sharing and quality but has entrenched commercial EHR products deep within the hospital systems.  
  • Is maintained, and kept in alignment, by massive network effects across the:
    • Hospital platform based sub-networks connecting to
    • Physician networks
    • Health insurance networks - amplified by ACA narrow network legislation
    • Hospital clinical supply and food production networks
    • Medical school and academic research network and NIH
    • Global transportation network 
    • Public health networks 
    • Health care IT supply network
health care
provider.  The value proposition included:

AWF is the adaptive web framework.   overview
The facilitation of adaptive in evolutionary biology is a trait that increased the number of surviving offspring in an organism's ancestral lineage.  Holland argues: complex adaptive systems (CAS) adapt due to the influence of schematic strings on agents.  Evolution indicates fitness when an organism survives and reproduces.  For his genetic algorithm, Holland separated the adaptive process into credit assignment and rule discovery.  He assigned a strength to each of the rules (alternate hypothesis) used by his artificial agents, by credit assignment - each accepted message being paid for by the recipient, increasing the sender agent's rule's strength (implicit modeling) and reducing the recipient's.  When an agent achieved an explicit goal they obtained a final reward.  Rule discovery used the genetic algorithm to select strong rule schemas from a pair of agents to be included in the next generation, with crossing over and mutation applied, and the resulting schematic strategies used to replace weaker schemas.  The crossing over genetic operator is unlikely to break up a short schematic sequence that provides a building block retained because of its 'fitness';  In Deacon's conception of evolution, an adaptation is the realization of a set of constraints on candidate mechanisms, and so long as these constraints are maintained, other features are arbitrary. 
planning and goal cascading within business enterprises should enhance iterative learning processes and allow strategic coordination of operational activities.  HTML based data streams can be used to represent the plans allowing indirect HTTP linked integration of discrete goals and actions.  By targeting business environments with increasing complexity, such as
The structure and problems of the US health care network is described in terms of complex adaptive system (CAS) theory. 

The network:
  • Is deeply embedded in the US nation state. It reflects the conflict between two opposing visions for the US: high tax with safety net or low tax without.  The emergence of a parasitic elite supported by tax policy, further constrains the choices available to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the network.  
    • The US is optimized to sell its citizens dangerous levels of: salt, sugar, cigarettes, guns, light, cell phones, opioids, costly education, global travel, antibacterials, formula, foods including endocrine disrupters;
    • Accepting the US controlled global supply chain's offered goods & services results in: debt, chronic stress, amplified consumption and toxic excess, leading to obesity, addiction, driving instead of walking, microbiome collapse;
    • Globalization connects disparate environments in a network.  At the edges, humans are drastically altering the biosphere.  That is reducing the proximate natural environment's connectedness, and leaving its end-nodes disconnected and far less diverse.  This disconnects predators from their prey, often resulting in local booms and busts that transform the local parasite network and their reservoir and amplifier hosts.  The situation is setup so that man is introduced to spillover from the local parasites' hosts.  Occasionally, but increasingly, the spillover results in humanity becoming broadly infected.  The evolved specialization of the immune system to the proximate environment during development becomes undermined as the environment transforms. 
  • Is incented to focus on localized competition generating massive & costly duplication of services within physician based health care operations instead of proven public health strategies.  This process drives increasing research & treatment complexity and promotes hope for each new technological breakthrough. 
  • Is amplified by the legislatively structured separation and indirection of service development, provision, reimbursement and payment. 
  • Is impacted by the different political strategies for managing the increasing cost of health care for the demographic bulge of retirees.  
  • Is presented with acute and chronic problems to respond to.  As currently setup the network is tuned to handle acute problems.  The interactions with patients tend to be transactional. 
  • Includes a legislated health insurance infrastructure which is:
    • Costly and inefficient
    • Structured around yearly contracts which undermine long-term health goals and strategies.  
  • Is supported by increasingly regulated HCIT which offers to improve data sharing and quality but has entrenched commercial EHR products deep within the hospital systems.  
  • Is maintained, and kept in alignment, by massive network effects across the:
    • Hospital platform based sub-networks connecting to
    • Physician networks
    • Health insurance networks - amplified by ACA narrow network legislation
    • Hospital clinical supply and food production networks
    • Medical school and academic research network and NIH
    • Global transportation network 
    • Public health networks 
    • Health care IT supply network
health care
, a framework should provide the customers with value by supporting effective change in organizations that are reaching a strategic inflection point. 

The
This page discusses the program strategy in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  Programs enable executive leadership to undermine counterproductive extended phenotypic alignment within functions.  Programs generate coherent end-to-end activity.  The mechanism is reviewed. 
program
productized the Perl programs and dark webs, into a portable, installable, window oriented product.  The actions included:

AWF is the adaptive web framework.   results
The
This page discusses the program strategy in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  Programs enable executive leadership to undermine counterproductive extended phenotypic alignment within functions.  Programs generate coherent end-to-end activity.  The mechanism is reviewed. 
program
has succeeded in creating the tool-sets, generating the proof-of-concept Git is a source control system created to support the development of the Linux operating system.  Linus Torvalds was not happy with the source control systems that he and the other Linux developers used so he designed and developed Git.  AWF uses Git as a way to share the HTML sources and istrings library files of group developed dark webs. 
integrated source network and dark webs is a web site that is not open to the Internet.  It is a set of deployed HTML files in a directory which refer to each other via file based references relative to the directory.   and has deployed the productized version to beta sites.  But the proof-of-concept has failed to generate any traction at the beta sites and other targets.  The key issues include:
  1. Targets see limited benefit in the bootstrap value proposition.  While this should improve with
    This page discusses the effect of the network on the agents participating in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  Small world and scale free networks are considered. 
    network effects
    and the discovery of learning benefits, competitors will undercut the network growth.  Cloud based applications such as Confluence offer effective infrastructure for project level collaboration.  Installed EHR refers to electronic health records which are a synonym of EMR.  EHR analysis suggests strengths and weaknesses:
    • The EHR provides an integrated record of the health systems notes on a patient including: Diagnosis and Treatment plans and protocols followed, Prescribed drugs with doses, Adverse drug reactions;
    • The EHR does not necessarily reflect the patient's situation accurately. 
    • The EHR often acts as a catch-all.  There is often little time for a doctor, newly attending the patient, to review and validate the historic details. 
    • The meaningful use requirements of HITECH and Medicare/Medicaid specify compliance of an EHR system or EHR module for specific environments such as an ambulatory or hospital in-patient setting. 
    • As of 2016 interfacing with the EHR is cumbersome and undermines face-to-face time between doctor and patient.  Doctors are allocated 12 minutes to interact with a patient of which less than five minutes was used for recording hand written notes.  With the EHR 12 minutes may be required to update the record!
    solutions such as Epic provide effective workflow and data management for operationally constrained hospital front line clinical settings. 
  2. Without initial target buy-in, convincing: 
  3. Without additional funds for staffing there is only loose integration with the Seamonkey HTML graphical editor.  And:
  4. Complex installation and customization required. 
The development of AWF frame based
Plans emerge in complex adaptive systems (CAS) to provide the instructions that agents use to perform actions.  The component architecture and structure of the plans is reviewed. 
schematic
descriptions of
This page introduces the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory frame.  The theory provides an organizing framework that is used by 'life.'  It can illuminate and clarify complex situations and be applied flexibly.  It can be used to evaluate and rank models that claim to describe our perceived reality.  It catalogs the laws and strategies which underpin the operation of systems that are based on the interaction of emergent agents.  It highlights the constraints that shape CAS and so predicts their form.  A proposal that does not conform is wrong. 

John Holland's framework for representing complexity is outlined.  Links to other key aspects of CAS theory discussed at the site are presented. 
CAS business based theory
and practice, within
States are instances of a high level emergent animal autonomous entity capable of entering an additional niche: amplifying resource capture and effective utilization; through improved collaboration, innovation and productivity. 

Emerging from cultural superOrganisms, states can evolve based on slow gene culture coevolution.  But so far, they have gathered limited schematic strategies for effective development, operation, reproduction and evolving.  Instead they are beginning to use memetic schemas to improve the rate of evolution.  With few instances and little time in existance, states current strategies are suboptimal in part because of poor memetic operators. 
 
nation states
and their economies is a human cultural superOrganism complex adaptive system (CAS) which operates and controls trade flows within a rich niche.  Economics models economies.  Robert Gordon has described the evolution of the American economy.  Like other CAS, economic flows are maintained far from equilibrium by: demand, financial flows and constraints, supply infrastructure constraints, political and military constraints; ensuring wealth, legislative control, legal contracts and power have significant leverage through evolved amplifiers. 
, supported a
This page introduces the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory frame.  The theory provides an organizing framework that is used by 'life.'  It can illuminate and clarify complex situations and be applied flexibly.  It can be used to evaluate and rank models that claim to describe our perceived reality.  It catalogs the laws and strategies which underpin the operation of systems that are based on the interaction of emergent agents.  It highlights the constraints that shape CAS and so predicts their form.  A proposal that does not conform is wrong. 

John Holland's framework for representing complexity is outlined.  Links to other key aspects of CAS theory discussed at the site are presented. 
CAS
focused review of
Plans are interpreted and implemented by agents.  This page discusses the properties of agents in a complex adaptive system (CAS). 
It then presents examples of agents in different CAS.  The examples include a computer program where modeling and actions are performed by software agents.  These software agents are aggregates. 
The participation of agents in flows is introduced and some implications of this are outlined. 
agent
based
The productivity of complex adaptive system (CAS) is reviewed highlighting the most significant variables: access to raw materials, agency based leverage of additional wage laborers/consumers to build a superOrganism during cliodynamic up-cycles, wealth amplifying infrastructure build-out, trading network time capture offset by instability of amplifier driven bubbles requiring strategic management and extended phenotypic alignment and disruption; when they expand markets for goods & services.  The CAS and classical economic approaches are compared.  Important CAS aspects are highlighted:
  • CAS reflect the history of all the events of the network of agents and their environment 
    • The relevant economic history is reviewed demonstrating the contribution of power, politics, war...
  • Chemical structures capture and preserve important recipes that allow agents to increase search/operational effectiveness and wealth & the system to be robust
  • Environment matched to system strategy: superOrganism and beetle
  • Cliodynamic models of historical agent networks allows a realistic assessment of productivity over a full network cycle 
    • The models must be matched to the proximate environment 
  • Internal failures of the agent network
  • Existential threats to the agent network 
Human agents must dedicate: focus, time, coherence and skills; to productively generate wealth.  And they could do much more - learning to develop and use formal schematic plans during their education, and using the skill when participating in a cultural superOrganism. 

CAS level productivity improvements are due to:
  • Collective solidarity ensures evolved amplifiers are fully expressed
  • Valuable schematically defined, emergent actions must be accessible to resource controlling and allocating schemata and their agents
  • Meta ideas that can be reused and recombined 
  • Distribution of these ideas allow parallel searching 
  • Trading to gain time
  • Isolated agents can be integrated into the current network during each growth phase, but cliodynamic assessments show agents are dropped again from the network during the decline phase of the cycle 
  • Network effects and leverage of power drive productivity improvements. 
Human agent level productivity
  • Agent level productivity improvements of significance
    • More time: Increased light, reduced moving & travelling, quicker & better eating, reduced rework, motivated & effective 
    • Broader utilization with adoption of standards & undermining of monopoly constraints
    • Weapons & armor
    • Power available: Driving flows & actions in required direction
    • Iterative theory & practice
    • Infrastructure & tools: catalytic reduction in cost of repeated operations
  • Agent level productivity improvements of limited effect
productivity


Diploid, describes a cell with two sets of schematic material.  A different set can come from each parent in sexual reproduction. 
operation of source merging by the generator is a Perl script, typically launched as a child process within the configuration editor, by clicking 'generate web', which executes frame configuration file instructions merging the configuration variables with an HTML template file to generate target web pages.  The configuration instructions can be tailored by filters from the configuration file specified filter file. 
allowed source streams deployed with the product installation and subsequent updates, to be integrated with customer specific source.  Either could be being independently and iteratively updated and then reintegrated. 

AWF is the adaptive web framework.   introduction
This
This page discusses the program strategy in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  Programs enable executive leadership to undermine counterproductive extended phenotypic alignment within functions.  Programs generate coherent end-to-end activity.  The mechanism is reviewed. 
program
aimed to build on the Web Frames tool developed to support the previous 'emergent software systems' program. 

The tool-set would need to be extended to include a graphical user interface, visible start and end operon is an addressable control structure which is used in biological cells to control access to other regions of the DNA. 
tags, tools: search list generator, glossary generator, checklist generator, Git is a source control system created to support the development of the Linux operating system.  Linus Torvalds was not happy with the source control systems that he and the other Linux developers used so he designed and developed Git.  AWF uses Git as a way to share the HTML sources and istrings library files of group developed dark webs. 
status generator; installation facilities. 

To demonstrate proof-of-concept:
The proof-of-concept should enable bootstrapping of marketing and sales programs. 

AWF is the adaptive web framework.   Program
The
This page discusses the program strategy in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  Programs enable executive leadership to undermine counterproductive extended phenotypic alignment within functions.  Programs generate coherent end-to-end activity.  The mechanism is reviewed. 
program
had two aspects:
  1. Productizing the AWF
  2. Developing demonstration dark webs for healthcare - performing a planning exercise, using the AWF product, assessing hospital market segments within the
    The structure and problems of the US health care network is described in terms of complex adaptive system (CAS) theory. 

    The network:
    • Is deeply embedded in the US nation state. It reflects the conflict between two opposing visions for the US: high tax with safety net or low tax without.  The emergence of a parasitic elite supported by tax policy, further constrains the choices available to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the network.  
      • The US is optimized to sell its citizens dangerous levels of: salt, sugar, cigarettes, guns, light, cell phones, opioids, costly education, global travel, antibacterials, formula, foods including endocrine disrupters;
      • Accepting the US controlled global supply chain's offered goods & services results in: debt, chronic stress, amplified consumption and toxic excess, leading to obesity, addiction, driving instead of walking, microbiome collapse;
      • Globalization connects disparate environments in a network.  At the edges, humans are drastically altering the biosphere.  That is reducing the proximate natural environment's connectedness, and leaving its end-nodes disconnected and far less diverse.  This disconnects predators from their prey, often resulting in local booms and busts that transform the local parasite network and their reservoir and amplifier hosts.  The situation is setup so that man is introduced to spillover from the local parasites' hosts.  Occasionally, but increasingly, the spillover results in humanity becoming broadly infected.  The evolved specialization of the immune system to the proximate environment during development becomes undermined as the environment transforms. 
    • Is incented to focus on localized competition generating massive & costly duplication of services within physician based health care operations instead of proven public health strategies.  This process drives increasing research & treatment complexity and promotes hope for each new technological breakthrough. 
    • Is amplified by the legislatively structured separation and indirection of service development, provision, reimbursement and payment. 
    • Is impacted by the different political strategies for managing the increasing cost of health care for the demographic bulge of retirees.  
    • Is presented with acute and chronic problems to respond to.  As currently setup the network is tuned to handle acute problems.  The interactions with patients tend to be transactional. 
    • Includes a legislated health insurance infrastructure which is:
      • Costly and inefficient
      • Structured around yearly contracts which undermine long-term health goals and strategies.  
    • Is supported by increasingly regulated HCIT which offers to improve data sharing and quality but has entrenched commercial EHR products deep within the hospital systems.  
    • Is maintained, and kept in alignment, by massive network effects across the:
      • Hospital platform based sub-networks connecting to
      • Physician networks
      • Health insurance networks - amplified by ACA narrow network legislation
      • Hospital clinical supply and food production networks
      • Medical school and academic research network and NIH
      • Global transportation network 
      • Public health networks 
      • Health care IT supply network
    healthcare CAS
    , which was separately characterized. 

Strategies
Strategy gives way to tactics.  If you your company or other emergent system collapse there is no further possibility of strategic action.  This page discusses the importance of sustaining the base of operations to support subsequent strategic action. 
Secure base
, Maximize
To benefit from shifts in the environment agents must be flexible.  Being sensitive to environmental signals agents who adjust strategic priorities can constrain their competitors. 
flexibility
,
This page discusses the benefits of bringing agents and resources to the dynamically best connected region of a complex adaptive system (CAS). 
Centralize
agents,
This page reviews the strategy of architecting an end-to-end solution in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  The mechanism and its costs and benefits are discussed. 
End-to-end architecture
,
This page discusses the tagging of signals in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  Tagged signals can be used to control filtering of an event stream.  Examples of CAS filters are reviewed. 
Tags & filtering
, Surprise,
Walter Shewhart's iterative development process is found in many complex adaptive systems (CAS).  The mechanism is reviewed and its value in coping with random events is explained. 
Shewhart cycles
, Economy of force,
Barriers are particular types of constraints on flows.  They can enforce separation of a network of agents allowing evolution to build diversity.  Examples of different types of barriers: physical barriers, chemical molecules can form membranes, probability based, cell membranes can include controllable channels, eukaryotes leverage membranes, symbiosis, human emotions, chess, business; and their effects are described. 
Structural obstacles
,
Agents can manage uncertainty by limiting their commitments of resources until the environment contains signals strongly correlated with the required scenario.  This page explains how agents can use Shewhart cycles and SWOT processes to do this. 
Commitments match preconditions
,
This page discusses the program strategy in a complex adaptive system (CAS).  Programs enable executive leadership to undermine counterproductive extended phenotypic alignment within functions.  Programs generate coherent end-to-end activity.  The mechanism is reviewed. 
Program approach
,  Production functions,
The agents in complex adaptive systems (CAS) must model their environment to respond effectively to it.  Evolution's schematic operators and Samuel modeling together support the indirect recording of past successes and their strategic use by the current agent to learn how to succeed in the proximate environment. 
Models & learning
.









.  

Market Centric Workshops
The Physics - Politics, Economics & Evolutionary Psychology
Politics, Economics & Evolutionary Psychology

Business Physics
Nature and nurture drive the business eco-system
Human nature
Emerging structure and dynamic forces of adaptation


integrating quality appropriate for each market
 
This page looks at schematic structures and their uses.  It discusses a number of examples:
  • Schematic ideas are recombined in creativity. 
  • Similarly designers take ideas and rules about materials and components and combine them. 
  • Schematic Recipes help to standardize operations. 
  • Modular components are combined into strategies for use in business plans and business models. 

As a working example it presents part of the contents and schematic details from the Adaptive Web Framework (AWF)'s operational plan. 

Finally it includes a section presenting our formal representation of schematic goals. 
Each goal has a series of associated complex adaptive system (CAS) strategy strings. 
These goals plus strings are detailed for various chess and business examples. 
Strategy
| Design |
This page uses an example to illustrate how:
  • A business can gain focus from targeting key customers,
  • Business planning activities performed by the whole organization can build awareness, empowerment and coherence. 
  • A program approach can ensure strategic alignment. 
Program Management
| Home

Profiles | Papers | Glossary | E-mail us